The recently launched Taiwanese drama attacked a zero -day officer, showing the scene of Taiwan's society collapse before the outbreak of the Taiwan Strait War, which caused controversy in public opinion.Studies have found that in the face of the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait, people tend to take "maintaining the status quo" to drag.Prior to the US election in November, Taiwan's rotation of land gesture softened and softened to seek risk aversion, which also allowed the mainland to further promote the strategic goal of Taiwan.
When the fighter plane crosses Taipei, the tide, the collapse of the stock market, and the withdrawal of international withdrawal, followed by hacking, interruption of the Internet and hydropower, public facilities, and public facilities.As the scene of social turmoil in the last days, it is profoundly presented in the zero -day attack Zero DAY's front -day officer released by the Taiwan drama next year.
This is the first drama of Taiwan with the theme of Mainland China ’s force attacking Taiwan. However, after the release of the front film, it has triggered criticism from many parties in Taiwan.The Blue Camp's view believes that the DPP of the Governance uses film and television subsidies to engage in the "anti -China cognitive war"; there are also doubts of the green camp views. The social collapse scene in the front guide film is to rendering surrender and singing Taiwan's defense capabilities.
For the disputes caused by the predecessor, the producer and screenwriter of the zero drama co -ordination Zheng Xinmei said in an interview with Liberty Asia that this shows that the show is very valued.She emphasized that this episode is to reflect on the situation when the enemy is coming. How would Taiwanese choose and never thought about anyone to attack.
If you climb the discussion on this drama on the Internet and remove the differences in political stance, there are indeed many Taiwanese people who start to reflect. When the war broke out, how should they be placed.This also reflects that the people in Taiwan do have some anxiety about the Taiwan Strait conflict.
In May 2021, the cover of the British Economist Magazine described Taiwan at the time in the center of geopolitical risk in the "most dangerous place in the world".But whether the next year, the then Speaker of the House of Representatives Perosi, the mainland's military exercise in Taiwan; even the first three days after Taiwan Lai Qingde, in May this year, the mainland first launched the "lockstone to the outside of Golden Gate and Mazu and other islands."Military exercises", Taiwanese people are still "horses running and dancing", and there are almost no signs of worry.
However, in the face of the Taiwan Strait situation that might wipe the gun at any time, can the people of Taiwan really be so calm?How can the people in Taiwan judge the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait?
Wang Yuxuan (a pseudonym) who returned to Taiwan from American university this year, who returned to Taiwan to serve military service, said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that he watched the front guide of the zero drama during his vacation, which made him feel particularly complicated.He went to study in the United States after graduating from high school, and his family was in Taiwan, so he did not regret returning to Taiwan to serve military service at all to defend his hometown.
But he said that when he saw the video content, he felt that the society had fallen into turbulence before the war occurred."In the state of collapse of the hearts of the people, I have no confidence in what the general voluntary service can play, but I am still willing to work hard for my country."
Xiao Liao (pseudonym) engaged in the financial industry is currently 33 years old, and he intends to get married with his girlfriend who has been in with more than 10 years.He had served a year of voluntary military service for a year, and he received several summoning orders after retiring, but he did not think that the Taiwan military's training for reserve soldiers was effective.
It can be seen from the above response that Taiwanese men who faced the pressure of military calls of the military seemed to be not optimistic about the prospects of the Taiwan Strait War, and even with anxiety.
More than 90 % of Taiwanese tend to maintain the status quo
Wu Jianhui, a researcher at the European and American Institute of Taiwan Central Research Institute, launched a "American Portrait" plan in 2021 to regularly investigate how Taiwanese people view the relationship between cross -strait and the United States and Taiwan.The latest survey this year was performed during the implementation of the military exercise of the mainland military in May.
83.4%of the people believe that threats from the mainland have intensified year by year; 70.4%of the public believes that if the mainland increases military reserve, the possibility of fighting Taiwan in the future; 67.7%of the respondents believe that maintenance of mainland military aircraft, military planes, and military aircraft, military aircraft, and military aircraft, military aircraft, and military planes, military aircraft, and military planes, military aircraft, and military planes, military aircraft, and military planes, military aircraft, and military planes, military aircraft, and military planes, military aircraft, and military planes, and military aircraft, military aircraft, military aircraft, and military planes, military aircraft, and military planes, military aircraft, and military aircraft, and military aircraft, and maintenance of mainland military aircraft.Warships bypass Taiwan's sea airspace will also increase the possibility of future attacks.
The survey results also show that if the mainland unilaterally changes the current situation of cross -strait relations to attack Taiwan, nearly 58%of the people think that the United States will send troops to help Taiwan.In addition, up to 93%of the interviewers advocate support to maintain the status quo.
The Duke University Team entrusted the Election Research Center of the University of Politics, and the 2024 cross -strait relations and national security public opinion surveys from June 24 to July 1 this year show that 77.4%of the Taiwanese people believe that if Taiwan believes that if TaiwanMaintaining the status quo and not announcing independence, the mainland attacked Taiwan, and the United States will take measures to aid Taiwan. Among them, 35.7%of the public believes that the United States will send troops to assist.
In addition, 63%of the people believe that when the Taiwan Strait War broke out, Taiwanese will resist.However, when asked about the outbreak of the war, when the public will take the action, 25.8%of people choose to run away, 11.9%choose to run away, 11.3%choose to "support the government decision", 6.9%choose resistanceEssence
These results show that the people in Taiwan are not indifferent to the Taiwan Strait crisis, and they really feel Beijing's step -by -step force, but they are more inclined to "maintain the status quo" and replace the conflict.Negative, similar to the scenes presented by the zero drama.
/>
Wu Wenqin, a researcher at the Political Institute of the "American Portrait" plan, mentioned in a discussion in a discussion on August 9th that comprehensive related survey data can be seen that compared with Taiwan's initiative to announce independence, the public believes that in Beijing's initiative to take the initiative to take the initiative to take the initiative to actively take the initiative to act in Beijing in Beijing.In the case of changing the status quo and attacking Taiwan, the United States will send troops to help Taiwan.
He believes that this can explain why most people support different forms of maintaining the status quo.
Wu Jiemin, a researcher at the Social Institute of the Academia Sinica of Taiwan, also pointed out in the same discussion that in most related polls, maintaining the status quo has always been absolute public opinion.Opportunities attitude, and also tend to adopt the choice of hedging.
Scholars: Most Taiwanese people know that the status quo cannot be permanently selected
However, the public opinion survey of Taiwanese voters from the "China Effect Group" of the Social Institute of the Academia Sinica in the past eight years can be discovered.", Support" independence after maintaining the status quo "is higher than" always maintaining the status quo forever "since 2020; although the public opinion of" independence after maintaining the status quo "is closeFor more than three years, it has declined year by year, and it is still the highest.
For the joint Morning Post reporter, if the war of the Taiwanese will affect the resistance of resistance, Wu Jiemin said that from the imagination of the people in Taiwan after maintaining the status quo, it can be seen that most people are actually very clear, and the status quo is.Can't keep it forever, and eventually you must make a choice.
Therefore, he believes that once the war broke out, the ideas of the people in Taiwan are likely to change; what actions of the governors of Taiwan at that time will also affect the people's resistance to resistance. "This can be seen from the Ukrainian war."Essence
Cross -Strait relations have recently alleviated mainland officials to go to Taiwan to participate in exhibitions
Compared with the tension of swords in the past few months, cross -strait relations seem to have signs of ease in the past month.
In addition to the mainland committee of the Taiwan government, the semi -official Strait Exchange Foundation has successively thrown out the intention to restore the exchange, the 214 Kinmen collision case, the Golden Gate Hu family fishing case, and the Penghu fishing vessels caught by the cross -border entered 88Cases and other incidents have also made pragmatic progress.
In addition, after the crown disease epidemic, the mainland groups failed to travel to Taiwan again. Until August 9 this year, the first mainland tour group passed through the "Fujian -Matsu Sanchang" to Matsu.It is regarded as a sign of loosening cross -strait tour groups.
In mid -July, the Taipei Summer Travel Exhibition on both sides of the Taiwan Strait opened in Taipei. A total of 155 people in mainland Chinese officials and tourists went to Taiwan to participate, of which 29 were official, and they were the first to meet after the epidemic.
At that time, Luo Wenjia, the vice chairman of the Haiji Association, mentioned in an interview that many officials from mainland China came to Taiwan to show their sincerity. They also hoped that Taiwan's relevant personnel could also go to the other side in the future. This is a two -way communication.He hopes to use sightseeing as the first brick to knock on cross -strait exchanges.
At the end of July, about one week before the Golden Gate discussed the 214 after the shipwreck case, Luo Wenjia also went to Kinmen to announce that the Sea Foundation will officially send a member to enter the "Executive Yuan to deal with the Golden Gate Administrative Coordination Center of Navigation Affairs in the Executive Yuan";Xiamen swimming activities throwing out the appeal of "the distance between the two sides of the strait is so close and peace should not be so far."
Analysis: Lai Qingde tactical to land softening before the US presidential election
Zhang Hongyuan, an associate professor of the Department of International Trade, Taiwan Zhili University of Science and Technology, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that there are two routes in the DPP in the Democratic Progressive Party.The other is those who tend to maintain stability on both sides of the strait.At present, whether it is Luo Wenjia or the chairman of the Taiwan MAC, Qiu Cuizheng belongs to the latter.
Zhang Hongyuan pointed out that Luo Wenjia was one of the important traders when Lai Qingde was campaign. After Zheng Wencan, then chairman of the Sea Foundation, Luo Wenjia still appeared frequently in public and proposed cross -strait discussions.Essence
Zhang Hongyuan's judgment that before the results of the US election were released, Lai Qingde's political agenda focus was not on cross -strait relations. Therefore, by launching a relative friendly policy and released goodwill, it is mainly due to the return of the US President Biden.The tactical adjustment of Taiwan's overall strategic planning may change.
Wang Xinxian, a special professor of the East Asia Research Institute of Taiwan Politburo, further pointed out in an interview that Taipei chose a relatively gentle and low -key way to deal with Beijing at this time.Both must be controlled. "
Wang Xinxian believes that Lai Qingde will still maintain 520 inauguration speeches in the fundamental cross -strait policy, "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China do not affiliate with each other", and Beijing will not be relatively slowly slowly slowing from Taiwan ’s land affairs departments since July.The statement of changes to Lai Qingde.
He pointed out that in the past, through the 214 Kinmen collision accident, Beijing allowed maritime police ships to enter Golden Gate and Matsu to restrict the restrictions of waters. In addition to the example, the United States did not have further concern.This means that Beijing will inevitably use the Bayeng government to focus on domestic elections and have no time to take care of Taiwan and Lai Qingde to further promote the strategic goals.
Scholars: The mainland will not slow down the anti -independence path due to folk exchanges
Since the announcement of the punishment of Taiwan independence in late June, Mainland China has further added a "punishment independence column" on the website of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council on August 7th, and also added reporting mailboxes, open external reports and crimes.The trend of obstruction to Taiwan is obvious.
The mainland scholars interviewed also mentioned that the mainland will inevitably promote the work of Taiwan in accordance with established policies to master the initiative and dominance of Taiwan; anti -independence force will never slow down because of promoting civil exchanges.
Li Zhenguang, the dean of the Taiwan Institute of Taiwan, said in an interview with the United Morning Post that the mainland will inevitably follow the policy of "two legs walking". While resolutely cracking down on Taiwan independence, it will also promote cross -strait folk exchanges.
Bao Chengke, deputy director of the Shanghai East Asia Research Institute, emphasized that the resolution of the 214 collision incident and the Penghu fishing boat incident will not ease the tension of cross -strait tensions caused by Lai Qingde's proposal."Don't think that the mainland will relax in civil exchanges, and it will turn warm and respectful in opposition to Taiwan independence."
He said that in the future, the mainland will also introduce more severe anti -independence policies and measures, "including the policy role of the Air Force around Taiwan, and it will continue."
The mainland is more concerned about Lai Qingde's actual actions
As for the recent softening attitude of cross -strait exchanges, Li Zhenguang said that compared with his statement, the mainland will pay more attention to Lai Qingde's actual actions."Like the Shanghai -Taipei Twin Cities Forum, which will be held in Taipei, can be used as a test gold stone that tests Taiwan's official whether it is really willing to promote cross -strait exchanges."
In this regard, Wang Xinxian further pointed out that Beijing is still observing, which behaviors and expressions are Lai Qingde's means and which are the goals.As far as the Shuangcheng Forum is concerned, Beijing will inevitably observe the DPP's attitude to deal with this matter, but it will avoid excessive politics. Therefore, it is unlikely that the candidates to come to Taiwan are unlikely to be the leader of Shanghai.
He judged that the DPP tried to avoid risk aversion between the two sides of the strait, Taiwan officials would not stop the Shuangcheng Forum held, at least to release the signal of "I still agree with these exchanges" to Beijing, but alsoIt will be treated low -key, and the tone is transactional and local communication.
