Recently with many Taiwanese friends, when talking about the future of Taiwan and the two sides of the strait, they also talk about the words "extension".

台湾刚在1月13日举行了四年一度的总统与立委大选，下一场重大选举是2026年11月底的“九合一”地方选举，相隔两年又10个月；之后After another 13 months, the president and legislator election in January 2028.

Integrated everyone's opinions, the results of the "double half" election in January this year showed the collective wisdom of voters and showed collective will.

On the one hand, in the triangle of the presidential election, Lai Qingde, the most tough DPP president Lai Qingde, who has the most strong attitude towards mainland China. Although the votes are not half, it still reflects the fear and rejection of votersKeep a distance from mainland China and maintain the existing lifestyle of Taiwan.

On the other hand, in the Legislative Yuan of the Supreme Public Opinion Institutions, the legislators are not half a three -party party. As long as they cooperate in the wild blue and white (the Kuomintang and the People's Party) camp, they can effectively check the governance of the Green Camp (DPP).

But looking at the reactions in the past six months, the party and supporters of the court and the opposition have not been satisfied with this result. They are still watching whether this is the best situation and thinking about how to flip through the "extension".

The most important extension of the

is that in 2028, he decided whether Lai Qingde was re -elected and let him continue to implement the "pragmatic Taiwan independence" route, leading Taiwan to realize the vision of democracy, peace and prosperity when maintaining the independence of facts.

Lai Qingde has won for half a year, no matter in the inside or outside, he has not been softened because of his votes.He has not invited and visited the leader of the opposition party and former President Ma Ying -jeou, nor did he expressed his intention to hold a national conference to condense social consensus.

In the speech of the president, Lai Qingde even presented the most "independent" cross -strait discussion.The mainland responded strongly, and sacrificed a series of high -intensity offensive attacks and pressure on economic and trade. On Friday (June 21), it also issued legal documents for punishment for Taiwan independence.

The more pessimistic friends lamented: "I can't see the future of Taiwan", worrying that the next generation's life is even more sad. Some people are going to transfer assets overseas or overseas.

It is more optimistic that the most priority goal of mainland China is to do a good job of economy. As long as Taiwan does not announce the legal Taiwan independence or the country, the mainland will not mobilize the war, so as not to let the West find the excuses of sanctions and weaken the national strength of the mainland.Essence

Optimists also believe that even if Lai Qingde's Taiwan independence advocates that "the accelerator is stepping on the end", the military warships of the continental aircraft will go to the Taiwan Strait every day. As long as the Western Democratic camp continues to support it, Taiwan will maintain safety.Confidence of peace and prosperity in Taiwan.

However, can Lai Qingde's pragmatic Taiwan independence route really ensure that the democracy, peace and prosperity he claimed will face strict review within four years in power?

This includes the new President of the United States selected at the end of this year, whether it continues to support Taiwan; whether cross -strait civil exchanges and economic cooperation have prompted Taiwanese voters to identify with the Lai Qingde government's route, or hope that the next government will replace people to do it to seeIntersection

After Taiwan entered the period of Lai Qingde, "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China did not belong to each other" has become a mainstream discussion or social consensus.Except for the former President Ma Ying -jeou, he always criticized that this was a dangerous theory of the two countries. The opposition party did not strongly refute, and was discussed on both sides of the strait.

If the overturning situation of the 2028 extension of the game in 2028, the opposition party must propose a more powerful discussion on behalf of the mainstream public opinion, or rethink how to make the stigmatized "1992 Consensus" and "One Middle School on both sides of the strait", and find it.The new interpretation method includes a clear distinction with the "one country, two systems", and proposes a political interactive model that allows people accepted by the people on both sides of the strait.

This extension has actually begun, including the recent mobilization of the "Blue Eagle" and "Blue Bird" supporters of the Legislative Yuan to gather popularity and prepare to launch a dismissal battle after the legislature in February next year.Second.

One of the fascinating development is the third largest party party that has won a large number of young votes, and the chairman Ke Wenzhe can have more gains in the 2026 local elections. It is still competitive with the ruling party's competitionThe support of the young voters lost in China.

The people's party represents the intermediate power other than blue and green. If it continues to grow, to achieve political party rotation in the wild camp, it is necessary to think about "blue and white" again to have the opportunity to win.If the People's Party is crushed and the micro -micro -micro -micro -micro -micro -micro -style after two years, the Taiwan election will return to the situation of blue and green duel.

The candidates who may challenge the next presidential election in the wild camp, including Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan, the Legislative President Han Yu, and the Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun.

If Lai Qingde can do a good job of cross -strait relations and internal affairs, no matter who challenges, it is difficult for him to shake his chances of re -election.However, if cross -strait relations continue to deteriorate, and the internal affairs have caused the people to resentment, no matter who fights, whether it is blue and white, there will be a chance.

In 2028, will it be the most critical extension of the future of Taiwan and the two sides of the strait?