The latest performance of TSMC, the world's largest foundry chip manufacturer, confirmed that the semiconductor industry is facing severe prospects.The weak profit of the company may also make it difficult for it to negotiate with the large -scale chip investment in the United States.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the data released on Thursday (April 20) shows that in the three months as of the three months of March, TSMC's income decreased by 5%from the same period last year, a decrease from the previous month, and a decrease of the month -on -month decrease, a decrease of the month -on -month decrease, and a decrease of the month -on -month decrease.16%.
TSMC is supplied to Apple and Nvidia. It is the leader of the industry. The company is negotiating with Washington to obtain a large -scale subsidy from the US government.The US Congress recently approved the US government to provide subsidies to the chip industry.
It is reported that in terms of TSMC's plans for large -scale investment in Arizona, TSMC, a key point is that if the company accepts US federal funds, excess profits, that is, the return on the forecast will requireShare with the US government.This requirement makes subsidy policies easier to be accepted in politics, but it may make it difficult for companies to accept in the economic downturn, especially considering the huge capital expenditure required by the construction of cutting -edge chip factories in the early stage.
TSMC predicts that the company's capital expenditure this year will drop to 32 billion to 36 billion US dollars (below, about 427 to 48.1 billion yuan), which is the same as expected in early 2023.The company's capital expenditure last year was $ 36.3 billion.The degree of reduction of capital expenditure will eventually depend on the downturn of economic downturn.
TSMC also expected that sales in this quarter will continue to be sluggish.Calculated according to its expected intermediate value, the income calculated in the US dollar will decrease by about 7%month -on -month, and the profit margin will shrink.TSMC predicts that the revenue of 2023 will decrease to a percentage of the middle digits year -on -year.
Although the profit of TSMC still exceeds the expectations of the S & P global market financial analyst, its dim prospective reminds people that the dilemma of the chip industry is not a matter of overnight.
Semiconductor companies are still digesting a lot of inventory.According to Morgan Stanley's data, by the end of 2022, the number of company inventory in the semiconductor supply chain is 132 days, and the historical average level is about 85 days.
At the same time, consumers' demand for small devices still seems weak.According to data from the research company Canalys, in the first quarter of 2023, global smartphone shipments decreased by 12%year -on -year.According to data from international data companies, the sales of personal computers decreased by 29%compared with the same period last year.The demand from cloud computing is also slowing.
The reorganization of mainland China is helpful, but it is not enough to reverse the situation.In the last quarter, revenue from the mainland accounted for 15%of TSMC's total revenue, and the previous quarter was 12%.
Many of the most advanced chips in the world are made of TSMC, and the company's P/E ratio is relatively low, and the long -term price -earnings ratio is 15 times. In contrast, the Philadelphia semiconductor index is nearly 27 times.However, the stock must cope with the uncertainties in geopolitical aspects: the company's business is mainly in Taiwan, and Taiwan itself is one of the global strategic hotspots, and the company must also respond to the pressure of Washington.
TSMC's strong technology and market position are undeniable, but the geopolitical colors of its industry are getting stronger and stronger, and it is located in a dangerous area.These disadvantages may not seem to dissipate quickly.
