Tom Kingsberg, Aziz Hick: Why does Trumps next term worse?

The common points in common in the three cases of Hungary, Poland, and India are that the charm leader refused to let the opponent be given power again.The election failure encourages anti -democratic anger.When an autocratic movement controls the state machine for the second time, lack of experience no longer hinders it directly attacking the system.The similarities between these cases and Trump's "Make the United States again" are obvious.

Will Trump's second presidential term really endanger American democracy?Some well -known commentators believe that the former president is too "weak" and is too eager to be welcomed by the public, or he cannot become a dictator because he is not "smart".However, although there is no real precedent in the history of the United States, the recent experience of other countries shows that a political movement with dictatorship will become more ruthless and efficient, especially after the election failure.

The situation usually develops like this: the leader or the new party who was elected for the first time obtained the power of the country, but it was defeated by the election alone.This experience will produce a radical effect, and the party or leader will make up their minds to no longer repeat the same mistakes.Once you win again, it will quickly take action to destroy the system and rules that may hinder control of power.

Hungarian Prime Minister Our class is a typical example. The Hungarian Young Democrats (FIDESZ, hereinafter referred to as the "Qingmin League") he led by his leadership has been in charge of the Hungarian regime twice.The first time from 1998 to 2002, Olban generally pursued traditional economic conservativeism.Although he has opinions on democratic norms, he has never deviated from the mainstream of Europe.After the defeat in 2002, the Qingmin League had been in the opposition party for eight years.In 2010, Olban regained power, and he was determined not to fail.By manipulating legislative agencies, modifying voter qualification rules, controlling the election committee, courts, and national media, he basically eliminates the victory of the opposition.

Poland's law and the Government (PIS) government also staged similar stories.The laws and justice party founded by Jaros? AW KACZYńSKI and Lech Kaczyński (Lech Kaczyński) were the first time from 2005 to 2007. At the time, it was in power.It is part of a governing alliance, focusing on economic inequality and traditional Catholic values.However, after the party was killed in 2007 and Layh was killed in the crashed in Russia in 2010, Jacoswaf began to attack those enemies in reality and imagination.In 2015, the Law and the Justice Party won a majority of parliamentary seats, and from then on, the focus was on the democratic system of disintegrating Poland.

In addition to various other operations, the law and the Justice Party government also control the constitutional court, re -divide the constituency, and control the media committee and judicial appointment.The national media has become the tool of the party, and the opposition party has lost their seats in the committee that they have always occupied in the parliament, thus losing the platform for criticizing the government.But unlike the Qingmin League, the law and the Justice Party did not work enough to change the election environment. As a result, in October 2023, it was defeated to a political party alliance with pro -European and pro -people.

Finally, let's take a look at the Indian Nationalist Party of India (Bharatiya Janata Party, hereinafter referred to as the "Indian Party").Although it was part of a group part of the government in 1989, it briefly tasted the taste of power, but it was in power for the first time from 1999 to 2004.At that time, the leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee focused on economic liberalization and improved the relationship with Pakistan and China, and "to promote the history of ancient Hinduism, resist the history of ancient Hinduism, and resist more.The efforts of modern Islam and Christian culture are still limited.

Like the Qingmin League and the Law and the Justice Party, the Indian Party eventually lost power in a fair election.But Modi led the party to a overwhelming victory in 2014.As the chief minister of Gujarat, he has achieved rapid economic growth and responded to anti -Muslim riots who have killed up to 2,000 people.When he became the Prime Minister, he doubled his economic liberalization, but also destroyed the independence of the news, attacked the critics of the Indian party, and turned a blind eye to the Hindu Social Movement against Muslims and other false rivals.

In 2019, Modi revoked the special constitutional status of controversial, Muslims accounted for the majority of the Kashmir region, and implemented direct military rule.It makes it more difficult for the Indian Party to be defeated.Although the Indian Party has far from achieving ambitions in the earlier election of this year, the international supervision agency has now classified India under Modi as an electoral autocratic country, not a complete democratic country.

The Republican Party in the Reagan era

In common, the three cases are that the charm leader refuses to let the opponent be given power again.The failure of the election encouraged anti -democratic anger.When an autocratic movement controls the state machine for the second time, lack of experience no longer hinders it directly attacking the system.

Although Trump's racial institutional remarks, with the Southern Strategy in the 1970s and the 1970s, there is a continuity between the southern Strategy (Southern Strategy to fight for the racist behavior against black people), butHe was still an outsider of the Politburo in 2016, and he separated -then simply knocked down -the Republican Construction School.This year's Republican National Congress also shows us a personalist party that is very different from the Republican Party in 2008 or 2012.

Like the Qingmin League, Law and the Justice Party, and the Indian Party, the "Make the United States again" is also in the novice stage in 2016.It obviously does not know how to effectively operate various governments for pressure, so it encounters resistance from all parties.But if there is a chance, it can benefit from experience.In addition to Trump, allies such as the American Traditional Foundation with the 2025 plan blueprint will be more fully prepared than January 2017.

In addition, like the Qingmin League, Law, and the Justice Party, and the Indian Party, the failure of the election has not made the Republicans' temper mild.The grassroots Republicans continue to reward those who have the same anti -democratic faith as Trump and will refuse to admit with him to a subordinate candidate who defeated in a fair election.This movement's admiration for Olban is a symbol of this trend.Trump's campaign partners such as WanAction Conference, all of them praised Olban as a pioneer of global anti -liberal resistance movement.

The Republican Party has drifted on the road where Hungary, Poland and India have gone.Regardless of how many personal limitations of Trump, he has now led a movement with rich talents and experience.After learning from past experience and similar sports in other places, his next government will manipulate and control power more effectively.

Author TOM GINSBURGIt is also a professor of research at the American Bar Foundation; Aziz HUQ is a professor of law at the University of Chicago

English Original: Why Another Trump Term WORSE than the First

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