The longest -lived human -Jennie Calmand of France has lived to 122 years old.How many people do we have to live to this age?
A study published in the magazine of Nature Aging on Monday, unless a transformed medical breakthrough occurs, the opportunity is not high.
The research surveyed from 1990 to 2019, from Australia, France, Italy, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland, the longest -lived life data was collected.Data from the United States also include, although Americans have a low life expectancy.
Researchers have found that although the average expected life expectancy in all regions has increased during this time, the growth rate has slowed down.The only exception is Hong Kong, where the expected life expectancy has not slowed down.
Due to the advancement of medical and technology, the life expectancy of human beings has been extended for decades. Data show that human beings may now be close to the limit of average life expectancy.
"We are basically saying how long we can live now, how long can we live in the future," "Professor S. Jei Olsonus, a professor of epidemiology and biological statistics at the University of Illinois,The foundation.He predicts that the maximum life expectancy of human beings will be around 87 -men are about 84 years old and women are about 90 years -several countries have approached this average.
In the 20th century, with the promotion of innovation such as water hygiene and antibiotics, life expectancy increased significantly.Some scientists predict that with the discovery of better treatment and prevention methods of cancer, heart disease, and other common causes, this speed will remain.Famous population statistical scientist James Wapel believes that most children born in the 21st century will live to 100 years old.
But according to this new study, the situation is unlikely.Researchers have found that the proportion of people living to 100 years old has not increased, and people's death age is compressed to a narrower time range.
Olzenski has long been opposed to the expected life expectancy that will always rise steadily.In the papers published in scientific magazines in 1990, he proposed a theory that human beings are close to the limit of the average life expectancy.
More than 30 years later, he said that his new research provided solid data to support his original assumptions -even those who bet with him think it is unreasonable.
Steven Ottard, a professor of biology at the University of Alabama Birmingham, betting with Olzonski, he believes that people living today can live to 150 years old.Today, Ostard said that Olzonsky's papers are "very good" and the "proof of no doubt" the expected life expectancy has slowed down.
Yang Viji, a professor of genetic professor at Albert Einstein Medical College of New York City, has also studied the limit of human life.Essence
"He has always been a pessimist that people think, but I think this is also realistic," Viji said.
New studies have shown that although modern medicine helps more people to turn the 70 -year -old, 80s, and 90 years old, it is commonplace, but it is difficult to make the average age exceeding this age.For example, scientists calculate that even if all deaths before 50 years old have eliminated, the average life expectancy of women will only increase one year, and men will only increase by one and a half years.
"We can make progress through medical progress, and reduce the health gap and encourage a healthier lifestyle to extend some survival time, Olzonski said.
However, he also said that even if he eliminates the death of common diseases or accidents, people will still die of aging itself."The functions of our internal organs and organs are still declining, which makes it impossible for these bodies to live longer than now," Olzonski said.
Not everyone agrees with this view.Dr. Loury Ferruch, the Director of Science of the National Institute of Aging, also believes that if the status quo is maintained, we are unlikely to see a significant extension of life expectancy.However, he said that increasing investment in preventive health can change this situation by delaying the attack of the disease, thereby "reducing damage caused by biological aging."
Nading Ulitt, an associate professor at the University of Montreal, questioned the other aspect of the research.She said that the average life expectancy is "sometimes misleading" because it is largely affected by the early death of life.On the contrary, she recommends that paying attention to the age of most people's death, the so -called modal death age, and it focuses more on life.
Olzonski believes that the only way to fundamentally extend the expected life span is that scientists have developed an intervention measure to delay the aging process itself -he expressed "optimism" about this.
Ottard also believes in the potential of anti -aging medicine.He said that this new paper did not change his betting to the 150 -year -old person who was still alive today, because his bets have always been based on the "breakthrough against the aging process".
