Source: Bloomberg
China further increases the economy, and its statement will increase the risks such as real estate and local debt.However, economists still cannot be convinced that Beijing has taken sufficient measures to get rid of shrinkage.
China Treasury Secretary Blue Foan did not immediately give the specific scale of incremental fiscal policies as expected at the press conference on Saturday. Instead, it means that more details will be announced in the next few weeks.The support measures he announced hardly reflect the urgency of Beijing's boosting consumption, although many economists believe that it is important to stimulate inflation and make the economy entering a more active growth track.
"The policy of supporting consumption sounds weak," said Jacqueline Rong, the chief Chinese economist in Paris, France, said, "Now asserting that the pressure of shrinkage will immediately improve or the real estate market will bottom out early, it is too early, and this will be too early, and this is too early, and this is too early, and this is too early, and this is too early.Two points are the two key issues facing the Chinese economy.
The data announced on Sunday may show that as industrial producers' factory prices have declined, the September consumer price index is lower than 1%in the 19th consecutive month, which highlights that the demand before the launch of heavy stimulus measures is sluggish.EssenceAt a press conference on Saturday on Saturday, officials rarely talked about the problem of shrinkage.
Before the weekend press conference was held, investors and analysts expect China to deploy incremental financial stimulus measures for up to 20,000 yuan, including potential subsidies and financial support for children with children.However, this is still possible to become a reality in the next few weeks: the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress approved the issuance of the State Council to issue government bonds and adjust the central budget plan of the year at the end of October last year.
However, the Saturday's speech on Saturday shows that China is satisfied with the overall direction of the economy.He said that he will support the use of special local government bonds to acquire existing commodity housing, and promises to introduce one measure of "the most intensive" in recent years to reduce the pressure of localized bonds, but none of these measures are unlikely to boost growth in the short termEssence
Ing Bank NV Greater China Chief Economist Lynn Song Speaking of China's economic growth goal in 2024, unless the final scale of fiscal stimuli is far greater than expected, fiscal policy actions will take too long to play a role, resultingIt is difficult to achieve the target of 5%of the economic growth this year.
Blue Buddha An also hinted that there is still room for the central government to increase the issuance of government bonds and expand government expenditure. Specific measures are expected to be announced later or early November this month.
Allowing local governments to replace debts will make funds for public services and encourage officials to increase expenditure.At the same time, the local government allows local governments to use special bonds to acquire existing commodity housing and use it as affordable housing or help stabilize the decline in real estate prices, which enhances the owner's sense of security.
The Ministry of Finance did not give the specific scale of these two measures.However, the French Industrial Bank said that these measures guided economists to think that after the previous stimulus measures were not effective, "this time it may be different."
The bank's economist Wei Yao and Michelle Lam stated in a report that the prospects of continuous recovery and stimulating inflation are improving, the possibility of stabilizing the real estate market has risen, and the pressure of deleveraging local governments is reduced.
In terms of direct subsidies, Blue Buddha An Zhou said that it will double the national scholarship reward quota and increase support for national student loan support.The Chinese youth unemployment rate was the highest since the year in August.He also said that he would increase support for key groups and mentioned disposable living subsidies issued to difficult people before the National Day.
The absence of this large -scale subsidy this time is not surprising, because Beijing has long been disapproved of the so -called "welfareism" for a long time.
Bruce Pang, chief economist in Greater China, said that large -scale subsidies are unlikely to distribute large -scale subsidies across the country because the basic idea of policy makers is to prevent laziness from eating white food.He quoted similar comments by the Development and Reform Commission earlier.
Economists have long urged fiscal policy to shift to domestic consumption.Taking a more balanced and sustainable growth model will reduce China's dependence on exports and promote economic growth as the trade tight situation intensifies.
The Ministry of Finance stated that it will expand the area of special bonds for local government.Ding Shuang, the chief economist of Standard Chartered China and North Asia, said that this is expected to inject funds to the economy up to 10,000 yuan.
By increasing the debt limit to replace the hidden debt of the local government's stock, Beijing is also trying to control the credit risk of the enterprise -in the past few years, these enterprises have provided funds on behalf of local governments on a large -scale debt.However, although it helps to maintain financial and social stability, replacement of hidden debt of stocks will not bring new economic growth.
Julian Evans-PritChard, director of the China Economic Research, said that the measures to deal with local government debt risks "mainly transferred debt from one government department to another", which has limited impact on recent demand.He maintained its economic growth forecast in 2024 to 4.8%, and raised the growth forecast of next year from 4.3%to 4.5%due to fiscal stimuli.
Hu Weijun, director of McGear's China Economic Research, said that China relies on manufacturing and exports to offset the dual -speed growth model of the real estate industry.He said that once the export was weak or the domestic demand further deteriorated, the official would need to change the policy.
"The strong urgency reflected in the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in September shows that it is now turning," Hu Weijun wrote in a report on Saturday, "But we need more evidence to confirm this."
