Japan can no longer return to the era of short -lived prime minister before Abe's term.Unfortunately, Shi Panmao's policy stance and suspicious management skills are difficult to feel optimistic.
After 15 days of campaign, the Japanese ruling party's free Democratic Party elected Shi Po Mao as the president.Because the Liberal Democratic Party occupies a majority of seats in Congress, he will also become Japan's next Prime Minister (editor: Shi Po Mao has served as Prime Minister on October 1).This is a dream to come true for the long -term main competitors of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's long -term main competitor and Shi Po Mao of the 67th year.But his political star status may not decline long, and it may be a plunge.
There are a few reasons: First of all, the "Asian NATO" proposed by Shi Po Mao was completely unrealistic and could not bear the questioning of parliamentarians.Although he depicted himself as a security expert, he seemed to lack some fundamental awareness.When this defect is increasingly exposed, public support will disappear.
The significant feature of NATO is the guarantee of common defense: attack on member states is considered a collective attack.The collectiveization of self -defense power can maximize the deterrent effect.With Abe's unremitting efforts, Japan achieved a certain degree of collective self -defense as early as 2015.However, considering the strong anti -military emotions in China, the scope of collective self -defense is limited to the threat of Japan's survival.
In contrast, Asia NATO means that if the United States is attacked in the Indian Ocean, Japan must be prepared and has the ability to provide assistance.Similarly, if a potential member of Australia conflicts with the Chinese Navy, Japan also needs to participate in collective self -defense.
Maybe Shi Po Mao's main intention is to make the United States more firmly involved in the affairs of the Indo -Pacific region.In this case, he needs to put forward a convincing argument to explain how the NATO will bring net income to the United States.But it seems unlikely to do this.Because the Asian NATO will not change much compared to the current arrangement.Japan (especially in Okinawa) is stationed in most of the US cutting -edge deployment of combat forces in Asia. These troops are constantly conducting joint military exercises with Australia and India to remind China that military adventurism pays a high price.
This leads to a more serious problem in Shi Po Mao's proposal: Taiwan.If Taiwan falls into the hands of the mainland government, Japan's strategic space will be seriously restricted in psychology, military and commercial.In other words, the collective self -defense that cannot guarantee Taiwan's safety is worthless.The United States, Japan and the Philippines are closely related to Taiwan's security. Will other countries join a Taiwan NATO as the weakest defense point?The prospect of this seems to be dim.
Come again is India.When Abe incorporated India's security dialogue with the Sifang in the United States, Japan, and Australia, he knew India, who was nervous to neighboring Chinese relations, and hoped to maintain long -term relationships with Russia.Even if you join the four -way security dialogue, India may refuse to join the Asian NATO to avoid evil with Russia, so you should avoid testing India in this regard.
Shi Pan Mao's political prospects also covered the shadow because he called for increasing taxes.In his opinion, individual and corporate income tax have room for improvement, and they also want to levy capital gains tax.He really believes that he can win the election with increasing taxes as the campaign program?
The Liberal Democratic Party needs to win in the upcoming elections, which is the main reason for Shi Pan Mao's election.The Senate is re -elected half of the seats every three years, and the next election is scheduled to be in July 2025; the current term of the House of Representatives will last until October 2025.Common sense tells us that a government has the most political capital at the beginning of its establishment. Shi Po Mao is likely to use this opportunity to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election to ensure that most of the seats are obtained and consolidated his government.House elections were held on October 27).
Fortunately, Japan's economic situation is still good, and the name of the GDP (GDP) and tax revenue in the name are at a historical high.However, the demand in the private sector has not yet fully recovered, which means that it is not when it is increasing taxes, but it should be reduced.Shi Po Mao may be affected by the collective thinking of the Ministry of Finance that usually treats fiscal balance as the ultimate goal, but few political parties can win the election with tax increases as the campaign slogan.
The third key reason that questioned Shi Pan Mao's political life is the loyalty of his government members.When a Japanese government has a short term, the collapse is usually due to the scandal of the Cabinet's minister or the staff of the staff.Fundamentally, the government's collapse was due to the failure of organizational management.
Shi Pan Mao has previously served as Minister of Defense.I know many civilian officials of the defense departments, and they are also familiar with the senior management of the Self -Defense Force.What impressed me was that they talked about Shi Pan Mao's reaction during his term of office was always surprising that everyone would not give a clear answer, but frowned when answering.
Prime Minister's responsibility is far more difficult than the Minister of Defense, and about 99%of work is dealing with setbacks.Only in the case of budget and legislative support can new measures be realized, and this situation often rarely occurs.
In addition, the time for the Japanese parliament to invest in the British Parliament is 7.4 times.In Congress, the Prime Minister must sit on a small chair and keep calmness under the ruthless attack of the opposition, which is not easy.
Japan can no longer return to the era of short -lived prime minister before Abe's term.Unfortunately, Shi Panmao's policy stance and suspicious management skills are difficult to feel optimistic.Let us want him to learn quickly and mature.
Author Taniguchi Tomohiko was a special adviser to the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
English Original Title: Ishiba Shigeru ’s Premiership Could Be Short-Lived
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.
