Luo Zhiheng: How to view Chinas economic performance in the first quarter

Source: China News Weekly

Author: Luo Zhiheng

In the first quarter, China's GDP growth rate reached 4.5 % year -on -year, exceeding the market expectations (4 %).optimism.In fact, economic operations are generally continuous. Unless there is a major external impact, such as outbreaks or geopolitical conflicts, it has caused major changes in supply and demand.Looking at the economic data in the first quarter, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the indicators of finance, finance, prices, and economy.

The complexity of the current economic situation lies in: First, in the past three years, the emergence of the epidemic and the fluctuations of the economy and the platform economy have caused the ups and downs of the monthly data. EvenThe big ups and downs; the second is that policy response is as advanced and concentrated in order to quickly boost the expectations, but this leads to the total amount of financial and fiscal in the fiscal period from data.In the second half of the year, the data is low; the third is that the Chinese economy is still in the period of new and old kinetic energy conversion, the new development pattern is still being constructed, and the switching required inside and outside has not been completed.Sexuality is difficult to get a conclusion of whether it is good or bad in general; Fourth, the external impact on the outside of the environment that has not changed in a century, and the uncertainty has increased. From the perspective of the stability of foreign demand and the industrial chain supply chain, it affects the Chinese economy that affects the Chinese economy.stability.In this case, the month -on -year average month -on -year, two -year month -old and four -year average month -on -year year -on -year uses completely different conclusions.

In general, we have to see both the economic recovery in the first quarter, and we must see that the economic recovery is imbalanced, the foundation is not firm, and the challenges still exist:

First, the economic recovery exceeds expectations, which is mainly reflected in the sharp rebound of industrial added value, consumption, and exports. It can be greatly increased from the year -on -year increase in social financing and proven PMI.From the perspective of the three major industries of production, the first, second and tertiary industries increased by 3.7 %, 3.3 %, and 5.4 % year -on -year, respectively. The year -on -year stimulation of GDP was 0.15, 1.29, and 3.06 percentage points. The service industry resumed economic growth to economic growthThe most contributed rate is 68.0 %.From the perspective of demand, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter, the completion of the investment in fixed assets, and export amount (USD pricing) increased by 5.8 %, 5.1 %, and 0.5 % year -on -year.The contribution rate of economic growth is 66.6 %.This recovery is mainly due to the stability of the epidemic. The service industry, especially the contact industry, is recovering.

Second, uneven economic recovery is mainly reflected in four aspects.First, the overall data is better than structural data.In the first quarter, consumption increased by 5.8 % year-on-year, which was better, but the consumption of goods increased by only 4.9 % year-on-year, which was nine percentage points lower than the consumption of catering. Durable consumer goods in commodity consumption, such as cars, increased by -5.6 % in the first quarter (by the Federation of Federation.Data), the consumption of communication equipment and home appliances is also negatively growing, far lower than the overall data of consumption.Second, macro data is better than micro data.The growth rate of GDP, which reflects the overall economy, is super expected, but corporate profits, residents' income and fiscal revenue growth are still low.The actual growth rate of residents' income in the first quarter was 3.8 %, which was lower than the economic growth rate. The year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue and land transfer revenue was 0.5 % and -27 %, respectively.Third, the service industry is better than industry.Fourth, internal demand is better than foreign demand.

Third, the foundation of economic recovery needs to be further built.First, the economic excessive expectations in the first quarter have a significant relationship with exports in March, but under the context of the shrinkage of global economic demand and the significant negative growth of exports such as South Korea and Vietnam, whether China's exports can continue to be further observed.Second, the year -on -year growth rate of private investment in the first quarter was only 0.6 %, which was further declined from the previous month; and manufacturing investment further declined, and the industrial capacity utilization rate was low.Because the main body of manufacturing investment is private enterprises, reflecting the private economy's confidence in the future still needs to be recovered. The current stable economy mainly depends on government and state -owned enterprise investment represented by infrastructure investment.Third, the year -on -year growth rate of the completion area of real estate has a higher growth rate but the new construction area has a negative growth, reflecting that real estate investment is mainly the result of stable and stable property insurance in various places.The city's inventory is still high, and the dewlocular cycle is longer.Fourth, the pressure of employment is relatively high. The unemployment rate of youth from the age of 16 to 24 reaches 19.6 %, which is relatively high than the same period of history.Fifth, the PPI increased for six consecutive months year -on -year. The profit of industrial enterprises has increased significantly, and the profit margin of operating income and the average repayment period of accounts receivable has deteriorated.

Looking forward, due to the low base, the year -on -year growth rate of GDP in China in the second quarter is more than 7 % or 8 %. In the third and fourth quarters, there may be recovery.The core factors that affect the economic growth under the stage are exports and real estate situation.Given that the foundation of China's economic recovery is not firm, it cannot be too optimistic because the economy continues to rise from the data in the first- and second quarters, so that it tighten the policy, which may accelerate the downward settlement in the third and fourth quarters.It is necessary to further maintain the continuity and stability of the policy. Fiscal policy must continue to implement the tax reduction and fee reduction. The monetary policy must still maintain the necessary support for real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment, including resolving high -quality heads of real estate operations operations operations.Sexual risks, supporting infrastructure investment with fiscal policy, and financing support for manufacturing enterprises.We must actively pay attention to changes in the situation of foreign demand, and stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment.In addition, it is necessary to further strengthen the development of the development of more industries in the industry.