Comment: Chinese economic data issues contradictions and signal economists to whether

Source: Bloomberg

China ’s recent economic indicators have issued a contradictory signal on the economic recovery, causing the market to doubt the prospects of economic growth, and inspire the government whether the government needs to increase the excitement.

The current March data shows that the service industry has grown. As the epidemic relieves, consumers' expenditures in tourism and catering have increased.However, at the same time, the inflation was weakened that month, pointing to domestic demand.

The official data released on Thursday showed that China's exports rose unexpectedly after a five -month decline, mainly due to the strong demand in the Asian market and normal manufacturing.This is in sharp contrast to the signal of PMI surveys last week, and the latter implies that the manufacturing industry slows down this month.

The credit data announced this week has also performed strongly, but economists said that this may be more related to the increase in liquidity, rather than the real rise of consumer and corporate loans.

In summary, the data shows that the recovery path is still uncertain, and the decision -making level needs to be vigilant to achieve this year's economic goals, including about 5%of the growth goals.The GDP data (GDP) data next week, and the meeting that the Central Political Bureau of the Mainland Government may be held later in April, will provide key clues for the future path.

For the present, contradictory data has led to disagreement on the expectations of currency and fiscal stimulus paths.Some economists such as Nomura Holdings, such as Lu Ting, said that recent data indicates that growth has lost motivation, which allows Beijing to take more reasons to take more actions.And other economists such as Yao Wei of Faxing Bank and Ding Shuang of Standard Chartered believe that the economy is rebounding and does not require more support.

"The economy is in the process of recovery, and now it is not the correct timing of overtime stimulation," Ding Shuang said."I insist on their long -term views, that is, there is no need to increase the stimulus."

However, traders have the opposite view.They bet that the government may launch more currency easing policies and buy government bonds.After China announced the downturn's inflation data, China's 10 -year Treasury yield on the 10 -year Treasury bonds tentatively tried a six -month low of 2.81%on Wednesday.After the export data was unexpectedly strong, the yield of the Treasury debt has been recorded for the first time on Thursday for the first time.

Consumer and corporate confidence rebound will be the key to China's recovery this year.Although the surge in credit in March shows that the willingness to loans of enterprises and residents has risen, the increase in deposits have also increased, showing their cautious attitudes.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated in a report released on Wednesday: "The release of credit and the increase in currency supply have not been used in the production or consumption of goods."He said that the impact of employment and revenue from the epidemic lingering is lingering, consumers' willingness to expand the balance sheet is "still limited."