Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao Agency Review

The battle of great powers is fierce, the economic globalization is reversing, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report states that the world is divided into two camps centered on the United States and China, and globalization may make the global economy poverty.The essence of economic globalization is the process of pursuing higher production efficiency and creating greater value. To globalization, globalization will inevitably damage the overall economic benefits and efficiency. All economies must re -adapt to resist the impact.The new order of the world economy is quite likely to have the "dual -core" situation in China and the United States. Some economies strive to meet the source between China and the United States.The way to go in the future.In the dual -core era of the global economy, Hong Kong in the country can be like the United States in New York, and the development opportunities are in front of them. Whether it can be grasped well, but also depends on the vision and ability of the SAR government.

Go to globalization to crack down on the ability to adapt to weak countries will become the key

Traditional economic theory believes that different economies have specialized production in the areas of high productive forces, and the existence of trade through trade can help increase the total wealth of various countries.The core of economic globalization is to reduce barriers and expand opening up, which facilitates the free flow of people, wealth, goods, and ideas, and promotes economic integration.In a broad sense, economic globalization is a process that lasted nearly two centuries. There is a ambush during this time. For the last period of ebb, it appeared in the end of a war to the end of the Second World War.With neighbors as a yin, trade protectionism prevails.After World War II, the process of trade liberalization with the United States and Europe restarted.After the end of the Cold War, the United States dominated the world economic order, and American neo -liberalism was regarded as Kuizhu, becoming a engine that drives economic globalization. The openness of international trade reached its peak in early 2008, but after the financial tsunamifall back.

IMF's new report states that Sino -US relations are tight, the Russian and Ukraine War continues, and geopolitical turbulence has deepened the concerns of global economic and financial division.During the year, it will drop by 1%, and the long -term output will decrease by 2%.IMF issued warnings on the issue of globalization. It is not the first time that the estimated economic loss of 2%is also suspected of "too optimistic".Earlier this year, the chairman of the IMF and the Secretary -General of the WTO pointed out that globalization is facing the biggest challenge after World War II. According to the WTO evaluation, if the global economy is divided into two trading groups, the global GDP will be reduced by 5%in the long run.

The United States cannot tolerate any country to challenge its status in the world, and do everything possible to curb China. The trade war, financial warfare, and scientific and technological warfare will be endless. In the future, the struggle will only be more intense.How to develop the war, it is difficult to return to the relationship between the two sides.Whether it is a political confrontation or a economic protectionist and decourse phenomenon, it is pointing to geopolitical division, international cooperation and commercial exchanges.The next step is to think about what the world economy will look like and which economic capabilities will suffer more losses.

IMF and WTO believe that de -globalization will have the most serious impact on developing countries. Generally speaking, this is a very reasonable assessment, but it is not appropriate to simplify the problem.In the final analysis, different economies have their own weaknesses and advantages. Different choices of decision makers will bring different consequences.For example, the Secretary -General of the WTO warns that the globalization may cause a double -digit decline in GDP in developing countries. It should point to some countries that fail to adapt to the new situation, the foundation and fragile.

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IMF report states that the struggle of great powers and the rise in political risks have led to the reorganization of foreign direct investment (FDI) and flowing to a relatively close country in geopolitics. In the past 3 years, the total FDI has fallen by nearly 20 %.The FDI decline in the market is relatively low; if the market share is on, the proportion of China to Asia has declined.In order to block the development of the science and technology of China, Washington has continuously launched measures to prevent US capital from flowing to China. At the same time, China has promoted high -quality development. It is also true that some low -value -added industries to surge in neighboring countries are also a factor that affects foreign capital inflows.With the recurrence after the epidemic, many big banks are optimistic about foreign capital to re -inflow into China. Although US capital has more doubts, it does not mean that European capital does not want to come.The United States hit Russia, and the European economy was boring. The leaders of Germany and France led the business troupe to visit China in half a year, which is highlighting that the European powers attach great importance to Chinese business opportunities.

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IMF report believes that the world is divided into two major camps centered on the United States and China, while Indonesia, India, Central and South America, etc. tend to be neutral.They all run around the core of the United States and the West. Their "neutral" itself is a huge change, reflecting the decline in US economic influence.In recent years, Washington has proposed the so-called "Friend-Shoring", which means to establish a supply chain in a reliable political allies. Some developing countries have also decided to choose the side.Former public warning developing countries, do not rely too much on "friendly bank outsourcing", "today's friends can become extremely unfriendly tomorrow."Saudi Arabia and other countries believe in this deep understanding of this.

Grasp the world's dual -core general trend in Hong Kong can become "New York in China"

In the past year, the vaporization of the US dollar has caused a widespread response in the non -Western world. From Brazil to Malaysia, many countries have sought trade settlement with China with their local currency, so as not to let the US dollar hegemony slaughter.China is striving to become developed industrial countries. In 2035, if the modernization of socialist modernization is realized, then China will become one of the cores of the world economic system.China and the United States are completely decoupled. Although it is unlikely, in the fields of fintech and other areas, decourse is undoubtedly a general trend. Whether it is the Internet or artificial intelligence, it will be self -contained.The Sino -U.S. The trial of the trial means that the world economic order will move towards the "dual -core" period. The more open the core will not be discharged, the more they can attract more partners, and thus grow themselves.Thinking about the future development of Hong Kong must be put under this framework.In the dual -core world economic order.Hong Kong's role in the country can play, just like New York in the United States, the positioning of the eight major centers of Hong Kong in the Fourteenth Five -Year Plan reflects that this is also the expectations of the central government.And the actions of the SAR Government.