Zheng Zhen: If you bet with CNN, China will not have a crown disease to death millions

Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Zheng Zhen

China has announced a significant relaxation of the epidemic prevention policy on December 7, Omitron has spread rapidly in large cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and once occurred in large cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and once occurred in the queue of popular rib clinics, rejuvenation, antigen reagent shortage and other problems.In addition to the treatment of mild, how many people are currently concerned about how many people will die.

Reuters quoted the latest predictions of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), stating that within 2023, China's sudden cancellation of strict restrictions on the crown disease epidemic may lead1 million people died.

According to CNN, according to a paper published on MEDRXIV pre -print on MEDRXIV last Wednesday (December 14), the disease modeling staff of the University of Hong Kong predicts that according to China's 1.41 billion population,Measures such as vaccine strengthening needle will reach 964,400.

In view of the huge population base in China, from the forecast announced by these foreign media, it is difficult to avoid death of millions of people.But will China really die for millions of people because of relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures?not necessarily!

First of all, the prediction of the above predictions has the premise of hypothetical, that is, letting go of the control and control of the vaccine enhanced needle.The reality is that the vaccination rate in China has remained at a high level in the past three years, and the proportion of Chinese people's vaccination has exceeded 90%.According to data from the National CDC, as of November 28, the number of elderly people over the age of 60 in China accounted for 86.42%of the elderly population, while the total number of inacuits over 80 accounted for only 65.8%of the population over 80 years old.

The simultaneous advancement of the epidemic prevention and control is to accelerate the vaccination of the elderly's coronal virus vaccine.At present, many places in China have been clearly clarified until the end of this year or January of next year. The first in vaccination rate of the crown virus vaccine over 80 years old has reached 90%; the conditions for vaccination rates and strengthening the immune vaccination rate at the age of 60 to 79 are all eligible target groups.Reach 95%.For example, after two days of preventing and controlling the epidemic prevention and control of Henan County, China, on December 9th, it was notified that all units should make full use of big data means, combined with the "knocking operation" to verify, and accurately understand the number of target groups over 60 years old, establish goals to establish goalsThe crowd account, mobilize by person, and sell numbers.

From the above measures, the situation in China is far from the point where the worst OMICRON strains are naturally spread. The vaccine has established a basic protection barrier, which can effectively reduce the death rate.Essence

Secondly, from the perspective of the past experience of the epidemic prevention and control, the mortality rate is largely related to whether the supply of medical resources is sufficient.In the past three years of the epidemic prevention and control, Chinese medical resources have been effectively expanded.

As early as July of this year, media reports in mainland China showed that within a month, hundreds of square cabin hospitals were born.The notice issued by the National Health and Health Commission in July also clarified the equipment configuration standards of square cabin hospitals, with a total of 53 medical equipment, including the central monitoring system, ECG machine, fully automatic blood analyzer, specific protein analyzer, square cabin CT/car CT CTwait.

After relaxing the prevention and control measures of the epidemic on December 7, the Chinese official issued a special notice on December 11, focusing on emphasizing the work of crown disease pneumonia in rural areas.Preparation of medical staff related medical professionals, strengthen the construction of buffer ward, and do a good job in the construction of infectious department.

In China's official notification, the above four goals have specific digital requirements, such as the construction and upgrading of the protection unit of the neutrome and the care unit of the neutrome, to ensure that it is used to treat patients with crown diseases.The number of comprehensive ICU beds is not less than 4%of the total number of beds in this court.One ICU bed is required to be equipped with 1 doctor and 2.5-3 nurses, 8 to 12 hours per shift, and increases 20 to 30%of medical staff as a reserve force.It is required to guide and accept the construction and reconstruction of the severe care unit of county -level hospitals.

China is stepping up to prepare for the spread of the epidemic to the vast rural areas.This task is quite difficult to expand the medical resources of severe rescue in just over half a month. Whether it can be directly related to the number of deaths can be completed.

The biggest difference between the prevention and control of China's epidemic and other countries such as the United States is that hospitals and other countries are controlled in the official hands, and the proportion of private hospitals in the Chinese medical system is quite low.The Chinese government's mobilization and coordination ability have been effectively tested in the prevention and control of the epidemic in the past three years.This laid the foundation for China to quickly optimize the rescue resources of severe illness and effectively reduce the mortality.Therefore, not considering China's special national conditions, it is speculated that millions of people will die in China are arbitrary.

Third, predict that the Chinese epidemic is not scientific by the mathematical model and other countries' experience.At present, the consensus on Omitron around the world is that the mortality has been greatly reduced compared to the original strain and Delta.In addition, different countries, different periods, the mortality rate is different.Different countries are also different about the statistics of death and death with crown disease.

The number of deaths in the Wuhan epidemic in 2020 announced by China was 3,869, while the United States speculated that the number of deaths in the Wuhan epidemic was more than 40,000 according to its own situation, which was more than ten times the difference.According to data released by the World Health Organization in May this year, Africa's mortality rate is as high as 2%, and Singapore is as low as 0.1%, 20 times the difference. Even if it is also developed regions, the data in Singapore and Hong Kong are very different.The mortality rate is 0.75%.

According to Wu Zunyou, the chief expert of the Popular disease of the China Disease Prevention and Control Center, data parameters in the United States, Hong Kong and other places are generally inferred that the mortality of China's epidemic disease is between 0.09%and 0.16%this winter.The mortality rate of the disease from numbers is not much different, but the population base of China is very large, and the mortality rate of 0.09%and 0.16%is hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Therefore, it is unknown whether the epidemic situation of 1.4 billion people in the state of population is used by mathematical models.In the past three years, the cumulative number of deaths in the United States has exceeded 1.1 million, but when China had just let go of the epidemic prevention and control, foreign media quoted individual research reports to speculate that China might die by millions of people, which is obviously too early.I hope that the discussion of the number of deaths around the number of deaths is just a discussion based on mathematical models, not a premeditated public opinion war.