Ye Shengzhou
After the defeat of the nine -in -one election in Taiwan, the DPP's five counties and cities in charge of the DPP have less than 6 million.The self -use and the DPP became the "Thesis Plagiarism Party", and the web -side wings -side attack attacked.In 2024, the presidential election was ready to go, and the political structure was about to be reshuffled, leaving multiple suspense highlights. It was a short period of time and 13 months long.
1. "Anti -China Baozai" really disappeared?
Some analysts believe that the DPP's anti -Central Baozhong's traditional trick "has overwhelmed the trouble" and "can no longer be recognized by Taiwanese voters."In fact, you need to add an attribution, that is, it does not work in local elections.
In the presidential election, no matter which candidate and or which political parties, the unique issues and cross -strait policies cannot go around.In the 2018 Democratic Progressive Party's nine -in -united election, Tsai Ing -wen was forced to resign from the party chairman, but in 2020, he still easily re -elected with nearly 2.7 million great advantages.In 2019, the anti -repair case of Hong Kong has become the positioning of her "hot Taiwan girl" and the issue of "dried mango".In 2023, there are two mines in the Taiwan Strait: Whether McCarthy's new speaker of the US House of Representatives has visited Taiwan or whether Taiwan's policy law can become laws. Once it is detonated, the crisis will be upgraded.If the DPP will make good use of these two cards next fall and use the retaliation operation of the mainland, it is possible to once again stimulate the resentment and rebound of Taiwanese voters.
2. Young voters are no longer "natural green"?
Tsai Ing -wen once confidently said that young people in Taiwan are "natural green", and subconsciousness has regarded young voters as the natural supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party.In the structure of Taiwanese voters, the young people are indeed green, and the elections have been the case before.However, this time the nine -in -one election voting rate was only 61%, a record low of history. The young people who used to be active either did not come out or come out or not vote for the green camp.Young people have a bottom line, and they will not be slaughtered. They use abandonment and running tickets to clearly express their serious dissatisfaction with people's livelihood problems such as unemployment, resistance, and house prices. They also have serious dissatisfaction with Cai Yingwen's disregard and favors of the plagiarism.
Young people run tickets during local elections. Whether the presidential election can return to the team after 13 months. The current conclusion is too early, and the Kuomintang should not be blind and optimistic.Compared with the nine -in -one elections four years ago, the county and city councilors in Taiwan were second. The DPP added 39 new parties and the Kuomintang decreased by 14, which was a strong and dangerous signal to the Kuomintang.
Overall, young people can't talk about the Kuomintang, they just hate the DPP even more.This mentality is similar to the US presidential election and midterm elections. It is not to talk about Democratic Party and Biden, but just hate Trump even more.
Three, can Lai Qingde become the common owner of the Green Camp?
The "British" strong Zheng Wencan broke the papers and plagiarized. He was canceled by Taiwan University to cancel his master's degree and loses the opportunity of integrity and competition party chairman.If you barely run or even win, it will only make voters, especially young voters more disgusted, and the DPP will further become funerals.
"Practical Taiwan Independence Workers" Lai Qingde is already the masters of the basic doctrine of dark green.He has stated that he will participate in the party chairman's election next month and the 2024 presidential election. Although Tsai Ing -wen is separated from him, he is unwilling to take over, but he may not be able to overwhelm it.
Four, is the blue camp co -owner difficult to give birth?
Zhu Lilun obviously has the ambition to fight the presidential election, which is normal.The support rate of his party and social public opinion was significantly low. In 2016, he was afraid of fighting, and then the "waste column" was in a hurry and defeated, leaving painful memories in the dark blue.The victory of the Nine -in -1 election will help his desire.Like Tsai Ing -wen, he did not use the primaries within the party. The direct party chairman recruited candidates, and the controversy was also very large.It is just because of this victory, the accusations are less, but the credit of the victory may not be great. For example, Zhang Shanzheng, who he was called, won in Taoyuan Mayor election.The disgust of the whole people caused "one corpse and two lives", and the mayor of Taoyuan and Hsinchu defeated at the same time.
Hou Youyi is currently the highest reputation in the blue camp, but the president of 2024 has three weaknesses: First, the re -election will take leave immediately, and it will inevitably become the focus of the Democratic Progressive Party.The accumulation of U.S. relations is very small, and there are very few connections. Third, South Korea ’s Yu has a lessons three years ago. After being elected as the mayor of Kaohsiung, he thought about the big position.Therefore, the best option of Hou Youyi is probably looking at the 2028 election, not 2024.If you do not, the accumulation is thick, leaving a vitality and retreat, and it is beneficial to the party to the Taiwan.
Three years ago, South Korea ’s Yu and Wu Dunyi lived a good card more and more stinky, causing their own political careers, and also hit the Kuomintang's vitality. Now they are particularly low -key.However, South Korea ’s Yu and Zhao Shaokang are still popular in the deep blue and need to unite.
How to integrate the middle forces?
Ke Wenzhe has clearly announced the participation in the presidential election.The main party of the people is in Taipei. The main voters are white -collar workers aged 30 to 40, and their political stance belongs to light blue and light green.
Gao Hong An Sheng elected the mayor of Hsinchu, and the key assists in the door were Guo Taiming.Guo Taiming was eager to represent the Kuomintang for the presidential election three years ago. South Korea ’s Yu was very out of politeness.Ke Wenzhe Assistant Cai Qiru has begun to promote the 2024 presidential election "Guo Kehe". The middle forces are really successful. In fact, Lai Qingde, blue and white votes diversion, 3: 3: 4, the DPP will continue to govern without risk.
The Democratic Progressive Party stepped down as soon as possible, the biggest wish and core interest in the Wild Party.The biggest bad news of the Green Camp is the integration of Blue Camp and Baiying. As long as the DPP that adheres to the "Taiwan independence" is reigned, cross -strait relations are not good.Moreover, politics is very cruel. Without governance, there is no platform, resources, rewards, no promotion, no money or not enjoyment.
The Kuomintang is ashamed of Sun Yat -sen for the Sun Yat -sen, a long -term civil war and a layman in foreign war.At the foot of Zhu Lilun, the ball is positioned from "the king" to "the king" as soon as possible. The position you target is not the president of 2024, but the executive dean in 2024, and you can enter from the source.In this way, you can completely let go of your own gains and losses, give up the call, restart the primary election of the party, re -solidarity in the party, and reorganize the party in the party; take advantage of the New Year's festival opportunities to take the initiative to visit the blue camp leader, Ke Wenzhe, Guo Taiming and other intermediate power to discuss togetherPlan; Guo Taiming can be talked about by the Kuomintang, and the future arrangements of Ke Shi's children can also be talked about.Don't talk about the political beliefs. The foundation and goal of the unity of the Wild Party are simple and pragmatic, that is, in 2024, all the legal means are used to pull the Democratic Progressive Party off the horse.
The author is a Chinese current affairs commentator
