Gu Erd
After the candidate's discernial cause of the candidate, the Chiayi Mayor Election was postponed. After the voting was completed on December 18, the election of the mayor of Taiwan and the county ended., Defeat the DPP opponent Li Junzheng.The citizen of 22 counties in Taiwan only won the mayor of five counties. This is the worst result of the DPP's 36 years since the establishment of the Democratic Progressive Party. The result of this election also affects the layout of various camps in the 2024 presidential election.
After the Democratic Progressive Party was defeated, the leader resigned the party chairman first, and Zheng Wencan, who was about to step down as the mayor of Taoyuan, was responsible for convening the party's "2022 election review team", and Vice President Lai Qingde also announced the election of the party chairman.The factions within the party had no objection to Lai Qingde's chairman. In 2024, the Democratic Progressive Party was not surprised by the representative of Lai Qingde.Tsai Ing -wen's influence on the legislator, presidential nomination and election deployment of the 2024 election will weaken. Zheng Wencan's review direction will also cooperate with Lai Qingde's strategic layout of the election.
The defeat of the county mayor election does not mean that the DPP presidential election is not optimistic.In 2018, the county mayor elected the Democratic Progressive Party, which was not well elected, from 13 to six seats; in 2020, the presidential election Cai Yingwen got a record of 8.17 million high votes.The cause of this pendulum effect is complicated, including some international environmental impacts, and non -Taiwanese political parties can be fully controlled.
The Kuomintang, which won 14 mayors of the county this time, has greatly increased confidence in seizing the central government.Party Chairman Zhu Lilun has never given up the Presidential Dream, and now he has enhanced his enthusiastic attempts.
The "Battle Blue" position led by Zhao Shaokang in the Kuomintang is pro -independence, and from time to time, Zhu Lilun's gentle and pro -American route is criticized from time to time.
Fighting Blue member Taipei City Councilor Xu Qiaoxin and Xu Hongting shouted that the legislator election in 2024 will be alternated in the 2024.EssenceZhao Shaokang's battle is as if he launched the mainstream faction of the establishment of the new Kuomintang in the Kuomintang 33 years ago and challenged Lee Teng -hui, which eventually led the Kuomintang to split.
In this election, members of the Battle Lan obtained 73 counties and cities in Taiwan, and the strength within the party cannot be ignored.Because Jiang Wanan resigned to the mayor of Taipei because Jiang Wanan resigned, the empty legislators needed to make up for the election. Wang Hongwei launched by the Kuomintang was also a member of the battle.If she defeats the Democratic Progressive Party Wu Yinong's election, the blue flames of the battle will be higher, and they will be more right to nominate the Kuomintang President and legislators. President Zhu Lilun will encounter more obstacles.
The 72 -year -old Zhao Shaokang did not rule out the possibility of running the president. He opposed the combination of Taiwan and the United States to fight against China. He also opposed the DPP government's proposition to extend military service and had a certain impact on young voters.After the election, he announced a film on Facebook and said: "If I am a president, I will never extend the military service. If they are extended now, if I will be president in the future, I will definitely restore it into the original period."Standing, I am afraid that it will scare away the middle voters.
At present, the most popular and strength in the Kuomintang compete for the president is Hou Youyi, the mayor of New Taipei.This election was elected as the mayor of New Taipei with the highest votes in Taiwan and 1.15 million votes in Taiwan.Since New Taipei City is the most populated county and city in Taiwan, with more than 3 million voters.If the voting rate is high, it is not difficult to get a million votes by the candidate, but this year's voting rate of New Taipei City hit a new low in history, and only less than 1.8 million people voted, while Hou Youyi included 65%of the votes, which was 56 than him.%Is still high.
Hou Youyi's biggest advantage is the ability to attract pan -green votes.In this election, he defeated the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lin Jialong in the Green Camp's big ticket warehouse and the Luzhou constituency.There are candidates in the Central and South China MPs who have made a photo with Hou Youyi to produce publicity products. It can be seen that he has the ability to attract tickets even in southern counties and cities in the southern counties and cities in the DPP.
The latest polls in the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation in mid -December showed that if Hou Youyi, Lai Qingde and Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe ran for the 2024 Presidential Election, Hou Youyi supported the highest support of 38.7%, followed by Lai Qingde 29%and Ke Wenzhe 17.8%.Hou Youyi, a policeman, is the biggest weakness of Hou Youyi is that there is no diplomacy, cross -strait, national defense and other experience in politics. This is the ability that a national leader needs.
The Kuomintang also reported that it did not rule out cooperation with Hon Hai's founder Guo Taiming. "Deputy Guo Zhenghou" partnered to run for Zheng and Vice President, and there were also information about Guo Taiming supporting Hou Youyi to choose the president.In addition to cooperating with the Kuomintang, whether Guo Taiming will partner with Ke Wenzhe has attracted much attention.Former Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Xu Xinliang said that "Guo Ke Bao" will pose a great threat to the Blue and Green Party.In particular, Hsinchu Mayor Gao Hong'an was the love of Guo Taiming. This time, with the support of Ke Wenzhe, it also shows that Guo and Ke maintain a cooperative relationship.In fact, Guo Kehe's script was staged four years ago but eventually broke. Guo Taiming finally decided not to run.Do n’t choose four years ago, will it be mixed with water now?
Ke Wenzhe's personality will not be willing to be the second child.The vice president of Taiwan is a head -of -headed head of power, and it does not meet Ke Wenzhe's personality.Four years ago Guo Kehe broke the game, Ke Wenzhe said that Guo Taiming invited him to be a deputy and pavilion, and promised to be only one, but he thought that he was not as good as the deputy to finish the mayor, so he refused.Ke Wenzhe, born in 1959, was 65 years old by 2024. Even if he had the opportunity to challenge the presidential position after four years, he had more variables and more difficult.Ke Wenzhe, who is good at calculating, should not take it as a deputy as the best option.
Although Ke Wenzhe's "alternative" style can be supported by young voters, young voters are also fickle.Ke Xing was impatient, his mouth was not covered, and his belongings were harsh.He has not officially left the position of the mayor of Taipei yet, and said in the year -end dinner in a department in a department in the city government that he was finally free. When the mayor, he could not say that he can say now.And Miao Boya.Although he said with a joke, he also revealed his personality.
Ke Wenzhe was busy with his official affairs every day in eight years, but he was too impatient and easy to lose.For example, for the Taipei indoor baseball dome project, when he took office eight years ago, he wanted to use the disadvantages to use the disadvantage case to deal with the contractor of the contracting project. As a result, the "disadvantage" could not be done.Can't hatch.
Ke Wenzhe first relied on the Democratic Progressive Party and green voters to be elected, and later turned to fight for blue voters.He expresses goodwill to mainland China with the Shuangcheng Forum held each year with the Shuangcheng Forum held in Shanghai, emphasizing "a family on both sides of the strait".This year, the mainland's frequent military performances scared Taiwan. The Taipei City Council requested that the two -city forum could not be held in the threat of military exercises. Ke Wenzhe still followed it, so the city council refused to approve the budget.Ke Wenzhe made his own "white power". Lin Feifan, deputy secretary -general of the DPP, who was born in the sun flower movement, had not named him "white red".
In the past elections of the Taiwan election, the case of cross -party collaboration election was only successful in the 2004 Kuomintang Lien Chan and the Democratic Party Song Chuyu to challenge the DPP Chen Shui -bian and Lu Xiulian.EssenceFour years ago, Guo Taiming, Ke Wenzhe, and Wang Jinping, the former legislator of the Kuomintang, attempted to integrate failure, which also explained the difficulty of cross -party cooperation.
Nine -in -one election, Ke Wenzhe's important assistant Cai Qi said in an interview that Guo Ke is saying that Ke Wenzhe "has a high difficulty as a deputy to be a deputy."Although Hou Youyi has the largest winning face in non -green camps, the white camp still has the ability to disruption, and the blue camp is hurt to integrate.In addition, the important variable worth observing is: Whether Beijing will eventually try to influence Taiwan's elections.
The author is a senior media person in Taiwan
The Lord of the New News of the Internet Media
In the past elections of the Taiwan election, the case of cross -party collaboration election was only successful in the 2004 Kuomintang Lien Chan and the Democratic Party Song Chuyu to challenge the DPP Chen Shui -bian and Lu Xiulian.Explain the difficulty of cross -party cooperation.The important variable worth observing is: Will Beijing eventually attempts to influence the Taiwan election.
