Yu Zeyuan: How risks are the risk of rubbing guns in the Taiwan Strait?

Early

Ji Yan Chunqiu

Mainland China PLA fighters appeared in Southwest Taiwan in the southwest of Taiwan yesterday. This is the air defense identification zone that PLA fighters have entered Taiwan for 12 consecutive days.

The Taiwan Air Force was driven away from the mainland fighter as usual, but the mainland fighter aircraft did not care about it.

After visiting Taiwan on September 17 and 18 on September 17th and 18th, the US Secretary of State was visiting Taiwan on September 17th, the mainland broke the cross -strait tacit understanding over the years, and frequently sent fighters to break through the central Taiwan Strait and approach Taiwan's airspace.The outside world originally thought that the mainland would fight against the United States and Taiwan, but until yesterday, the PLA fighter was still demonstrating in the Taiwan Strait, which was to declare that the mainland did not recognize the Taiwan Strait and air defense identification zone identified by the mainland.

Not only that, the mainland is still showing muscles.The PLA's most advanced four-generation stealth fighter-20 recently appeared in Zhejiang, Zhejiang, Zhejiang, Zhejiang, and was considered to prepare for the war of the Taiwan Strait.

Luzhou is about 500 kilometers away from Taiwan, which means that the J-20 does not need to add a sub-fuel tank. The combat radius that can be achieved by the fuel tank in the machine can be put into battle against Taiwan.The mainland military recently released news that during the exercise, the J-20 achieved an amazing record of 17-0 (17 times down the opponent) of the three generations and three generations of the J-10, J-16.In other words, the J-20 has a crushing advantage for the existing fighter aircraft and air defense systems in Taiwan.

Its arrival is obviously not only to deal with Taiwan, but also a deterrent to the U.S. military that may interfere with the war of the Taiwan Strait.

These unprecedented muscle movements of the PLA have made the mainland Internet public opinion quite excited.Some media and online celebrities predict that the war in the liberation of Taiwan in the mainland is about to start. Taiwan has become Peiping (Beijing), which has been besieged by the PLA in early 1949. It may be included in the PLA at any time.

But the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan is much optimistic.The continued enhanced military pressure on the mainland did not significantly affect the Taiwan stock market. Green camp media and most young people believed that the mainland did not dare to do it. Taiwan society was still a rising scene of running and dancing.

In fact, the excitement of mainland netizens and the calmness of Taiwan's public opinion have a certain basis.

The PLA fighter aircraft frequently break through the Taiwan Strait Central Line and Taiwan Air Defense Recognition Zone does not mean that the mainland will start war against Taiwan.

Because solving the Taiwan problem is not a priority option for high -level mainland.In addition, it is true that the preparations for the mainland will not be limited to the military field. Economic, public opinion, and international relations must be fully cooperated.

On the other hand, the PLA's increase in pressure on Taiwan has indeed increased the risk of wiping guns in the Taiwan Strait.Once the gun is wiped out, the PLA, which is obviously dominant, is inevitably unwilling to suffer. The conflict is likely to expand, causing the consequences of difficulty in cleaning.

Although the governors in Taiwan have a posture of not fear of war, there is still a sober understanding of the consequences of the consequences of the gunfire.

As the PLA fighter aircraft continued to pressure, the Taiwan Army modified the right of the first hit to self -defense counterattack. It stipulates that if the mainland has a clear signs of attack on the Taiwan fighter aircraft, the Taiwan Air Force combat headquarters order the Taiwan army pilots to carry out self -defense counterattack.

Taiwan's move is equivalent to recovering the right to counterattack the PLA's intimidation, which is obviously compromised.In the situation of the difference between the differences between the two sides of the strait, this low posture in Taiwan is indeed conducive to reducing the risk of the Taiwan Strait's gunfire.After all, the mainland does not intend to do Wu Tong Taiwan. As long as it can effectively avoid the gunfire and get angry, the situation of the Taiwan Strait will not be out of control.

At the same time, although the United States is willing to encourage Taiwan to confront the mainland, they are not willing or prepare to meet with the PLA swords in the Taiwan Strait.

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, known for its anti -China platform, made it clear at a think tank event on September 23 that Taiwan is the red line of mainland China. The United States must deal with it carefully.It is impossible to win in the comprehensive conflict of mainland China.

In fact, regardless of China's mainland, Taiwan and the United States, they are reluctant to see the end of the war on both sides of the strait.Because of this, although the Taiwan Strait has recently been densely clouded, some netizens in the mainland are boiling, but the Taiwan Strait wipes guns on fire, and even the risk of war in the outbreak is still controllable as a whole.

However, the Taiwan Strait's long -lasting peaceful status quo has indeed been damaged.Even though the Taiwan Strait will not wipe the guns in the short term, and the war will not erupt, it is difficult for cross -strait relations to return to the tacit understanding of the past.

In the future, if Taiwan takes a big step in the direction of independence, or that there will be a political exchanges that break through the psychology of the mainland between the United States, the mainland is likely to respond with stricter military operations.In the long run, the string of tight cross -strait relations will eventually break, and the full duel is inevitable.