Cao Xin: Trump's actions of China seem to be lively. In fact, he was forcing China to make concessions with cliff tactics to help his campaign. This is the core of the current problem.

In the past week, Sino -US relations are more tense than the previous week.China and the United States began to close the consulates of the opponent's countries. At the same time, US Secretary of State Pompeo also publicly published a strong core speech on China's relations last week.However, if you look closely, you will find two core information:

Trump seems to be lively for China. In fact, he is using cliff tactics to force China to make concessions and help his election for re -election. This is the core of the current problem.As for Pompeo's speech, in addition to the topic of Chinese topics before the campaign is about to come, it also indicates that the topic of Chinese topics will become the core issue of Trump's re -election this year.It shows the future pictures of the Trump's new government's policy on China.

Cliff tactics will become Trump's core campaign tactics

The reason why the current tension between China and the United States is to use cliff tactics to force China to make concessions to transfer the focus of the United States' attention to the epidemic in the United States, and finally help Trump to run for re -election is based on the following facts: The first fact is that the two sides obviously have room for the treatment of the problem.

On the one hand, it is very serious to close the consulate. Usually the actions taken by both parties are equal, and the staff of the consulate are often required to leave the country. HoweverThe deadline for the situation; on the website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it did not mention the final deadline for closing the Chengdu consulate in the United States, but only required to stop handling related business and activities.

At the same time, at the press conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on July 24, a reporter asked: The United States has recently arranged US diplomats to return to China. On Wednesday, a charter has been arranged to fly from the United States to Shanghai.The charter arrangement of Guangzhou is required to confirm it.In this regard, Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the relevant arrangements for the return of US diplomats in China, China and the United States have maintained communication.

It is worth noting that there is no information that the US diplomats who have taken the above opportunity to work in China need to conduct a health test by China.

Therefore, the actual situation of the incident is that although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the two countries is very serious about closing the consulate in the posture, the two sides are obviously a bamboo.

All of the above shows that China has noticed the motivation of Trump's closure of the Chinese Consident's Consulate in this time. This is the need for re -election in election. Therefore, he is unwilling to break the risk of Sino -US relations because of this factors that are purely in American affairs.And from the perspective of international law, closing the consulate completely does not mean breaking the diplomatic relationship.

The second fact is that the day when China had just announced the closure of the US consulate in Chengdu, the US Embassy in China and NASA congratulated China to the successful launch of the day.Congratulations to China, congratulations to China lsquo; Tianwen No. 1 rsquo; The team successfully launched the first Mars detection task.The global scientific community expects this task to understand the data provided by this red planet and the contribution of the red planet!This behavior of the US Embassy in China is incompatible with the atmosphere of the U.S. State Department to close the atmosphere of the Consulate General in Houston, but the US State Department still does this and objectively interact with China.

So why did the United States have recently done something to close the Chinese consulate in Houston?Political conditions in the United States can also see clues:

On July 21, the day when the United States announced the closure of the Consulate of the Chinese Houston, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Pelosi said that in an interview with the CNN, it was said that the new crown virus was said to the Chinese virus at the White House briefing that day.The Trump virus caused heated discussions on the Internet. Peros herself later called the new crown virus as Trump virus on Twitter, and therefore became Twitter hot search topics.This also shows that Pelosi, who is the rival of Trump, believes that the new crown epidemic is the fatal weakness of Trump's re -election. It needs to be caught, and the Trump virus's puppets are of course effective in propaganda.

All of the above shows that, as I analyzed a document last Monday, the closure of Houston's Chinese consulate is related to its serious epidemic in China.Closing the Chinese consulate, and then said that the Chinese soldiers who concealed the status of soldiers in the San Francisco Chinese Consuls were the purpose of using the topic of domestic public opinion to use the topic of Chinese topics to serve Trump's election re -election.Trump creates a tension atmosphere in this way, naturally to form a strong impact of public opinion and better achieve his own re -election.On the other hand, China has a strong response to its peers that must be closed for its consulate in Houston. Of course, Trump will certainly not object to objectively, which is harmless to his purpose.This is the essence of things.

As the author analyzed on Monday's article last Monday, with the increasingly approaching election, Trump will definitely become increasingly frequently hyped up in Chinese topics, especially the implementation of the Sino -US economic and trade agreement in the first stage.American products, these products in China are also needed.Because only by doing this, Trump can use American public opinion to promote his victory in China and transfer the focus of the domestic epidemic; and will increase his votes for his campaign and increase his votes.Perfectly ended.

To achieve this, he will also use all opportunities on the international stage, including in the South China Sea.He will continue to engage in cliff tactics, and even a small conflict like a treasure island may not be impossible. Vietnam has invited the United States to protect the sea fishing boats.

The trouble after the new president may start

The current Trump's cliff tactics are in controlled, and it is worth noting that Pompeo's policy of China.

When the director, senators and businessmen of the Central Intelligence Bureau, Pompeo, who experienced rich experience in his speech last week, is worthy of attention:

The old model of blind contact with China has failed.We can't continue to do so.We must never repeat the same mistakes.

Now do not trust and verify China.The free world must guide Chinese behavior changes in a creative and decisive way.

Can not treat China in normal countries.

Maybe it's time to build a new alliance with similar ideas, a new democratic alliance.

Pompeo's above position expounds the US government's qualitativeness to the world's second largest economy and 1.4 billion people in China today, and the current US Trump administration and possible next Trump administration's policies to China.Trump's campaign is successful.

As far as the former is concerned, it is the current policy of the Trump administration, but there is no time to implement it, because its main energy lies in the re -election of the election; as far as the latter is concerned, it isIt is considered a preview in advance.But the wisdom of Trump and Pompeo is that Trump, which has the same content and implementation time in the same four months, has been connected before and after the next two years.The policy of the policy implies that China must cooperate with the Trump administration, which is actually helping Trump to run for re -election. At the same time, it is warned that the Chinese government must change domestic and foreign policies and cooperate with the United States during the Trump's new government.It may be a more intense way to play a comprehensive game with China in a certain form, and it is not ruled out that it will be a more intense way.

During the first term of Trump, the above perspectives have heard the explanation of Trump himself many times, but so specific and systematically explain to replace China with the Communist Party of China, saying that it cannot be treated with normal countries to treat it with normal countries.China, as well as the establishment of a democratic national alliance, and a decisive way, guiding the changes in Chinese behavior, is the first time since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States.

For example, the author said on Monday: The Trump administration came to power, and there was no alliance, and it was not terrible to have the enemy with China; Bayeng came to the stage to pay attention to the allies, and it was terrible when he came to power.Now, it seems specialTrump also realized that he lacked the weakness of allies.Of course, thinking is one thing, doing another is another matter.But in any case, this is the most important movement in the future, because to a large extent, Sino -US relations are one of the largest internal affairs in China today.

In the face of the turmoil of the international community, will China adjust and change?The author believes, yes.Because survival is the first place, this kind of change and adaptability have been confirmed by the history since 1921. The key is: there must be a team of cadres with excellent capabilities, and then the correct route, guidelines and policies can be proposed.And implement it in practice.

(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.