Ye Shengzhou: China and the United States have fallen into the trap of Xunxione. In the second half of the year, China must be calm, tolerate it, watch it, do not hit the muzzle, and avoid many right and wrong cycles.
In the past few days, there have been major events in China and the United States.On July 22, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the U.S. government suddenly requested the Chinese side to close the Chinese Consulate General in Houston within 72 hours.On the same day, Trump threatened at a press conference of the White House, and it was possible to close more Chinese consulates in the United States.On July 24, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs notified the United States to close the US Consulate General in Chengdu.
Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the conflict has been one after another. The temperature difference has continued. The United States is really rare, but it does not have to be a fuss.In the past, there were more serious than this. For example, in June 1995, Lee Teng -hui, who was published in the two countries, visited the United States. China recalled Li Daoyu, the ambassador to the United States, and actually reduced Sino -US relations from the ambassador to agency.
Hu Xi, the editor -in -chief of Global Times, who broke the news from China, said that the United States was mad, and it may not be that simple; Professor Zheng Yongnian commented on the Singapore in Singapore on May 19 that Sino -US relations are worse than the free fall, which may not be so pessimistic.Thinking from different angles in different angles, it is awake for the status quo and the future of China and the United States.
Bite China: Last opportunities, two defeats hurt
A clever opponent or enemy is far more than a hundred mediocre friends.The United States has regarded China, who has stabilized the second child of the world, and regards the most powerful strategic competitors, and is very worried that it will not guarantee that he is overlorded.General countries do not pose a major threat to the United States, and it is not worthy of repeated suppression of the United States to use such huge amounts of resources.
The United States's once -dead opponent of the Soviet Union had disintegrated, and Russia, which inherited its main mantle, was suffering from great injuries, and was accurately positioned as residual power by the United States.Kim Jong -un has forcibly supported the nuclear, and the rights and wrists are extremely superb. Trump is impulsive for a while, and a three summit held a three -time summit, giving Kim Jong -un three high -light face opportunities.Unfortunately, North Korea ’s national strength is too weak, and it is too weak to play in China and the United States. It is still in place and returned to the original shape.
Unlike today's aggressive and swords of blood pressure, the United States has long implemented a gentle and gradual contact evolution strategy for a long time after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China.It has the opportunity to suppress it earlier and more ruthless, but does not do so, and now regrets that China is strong.Trump has repeatedly complained that China has taken too much cheap in the United States, but does not blame China, but blame the previous US presidents.
On July 23, U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo gave a speech in the Presidential Library of Nixon, California, saying that the way we have always adopted has not brought changes expected by President Nixon within China.Creative and self -confidence and decisive ways to seduce China to make changes, otherwise China will definitely change us.
In fact, the Chinese National Games is already good. After joining the WTO, the comprehensive national strength has accelerated and soared, which can be called gold for 20 years.If the United States is not allowed to join the WTO in 2001, it is so fierce that China has almost no power to fight.After the 9bull; 11 incidents, the United States mistakenly regarded terrorism as the primary enemy, leaving a feathers.According to the 2018 Research Report of Brown University in the United States, as of fiscal 2019, US war funds were US $ 5.93 trillion.
China is not abundant at present, and it is not too late to keep the hegemon of the hegemony now to curb the emerging powers. It can stop, it is already hard, and it may be the last chance.The ending of China and the United States must be to kill the enemy a thousand and commit 800 suicide. China is more injured, but the toughness is more sufficient and the pressure is better.
Sino -US conflicts will also benefit from Russia, Japan, Germany, and India also have the opportunity to rise.The boss and the second child will also be a big disaster to the world. The new crown epidemic will take more people's life. Climate change will exacerbate the worsening of the global environment. The nuclear diffusion will threaten international peace and security.
Trump: The outbreak is out of control, the election is sluggish
Trump is a businessman and a political amateur.He is known for uncertainty. In a new book published on July 14th, his niece anatomy as a clinical psychologist.There is a certainty.
His four -year presidential term, three stages of handling Sino -US relations, has obvious style changes, but the main tone is unchanged, and it has always been pragmatism and self -interest.
In the first year of the term of office, the Nuclear crisis broke out. He needed China to settle down, so he did not make difficulties in China. Instead, he praised Chinese leaders many times and bragging about the private relationship between the two.His disgusted political opponent Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize. He had an extremely vanity. He had fantasized that he quickly resolved the North Korean nuclear problem and won the award to shine his family.
In the second to 3 years, he was superstitious and superficial intuition, lacking knowledge reserves and strategic vision, and only used the United States' 1/4 strength to play with China.The soft power of the absolute advantage of the United States has almost no use, and it is half of the martial arts; the three -current weapon tariffs are keen to use outdated three -current weapons, which is clearly defeated. What is even more stupid is to repeatedly threaten neighbors and allies with tariffs.China, another 1/4 martial arts.Otherwise, China is even more sad.
In the fourth year of his term, he was obviously more ruthless and no bottom line. The outbreak was out of control and the backward election was two main incentives.Since March of this year, the upstream of the new crown epidemic in the United States has continued to rest. He has rushed his original ten-nine stability election.Including the four or five key swing states that won with a weak advantage in 2016, the polls are also significantly behind, far higher than the scope of statistical errors.
In this case, Trump's eyes were anxious.A series of decision -making swords are deferred, which is uncertain to others. For himself, it is fully rational and certain.Therefore, he must start the pressure of the epidemic to start a campaign and to replace the campaign manager; constantly transferring the contradictions, China is the first to be known as Chinese virus; the domestic foreign policy has no confidence to depend on his intuition, and is the eagle represented by Pompeo.Paid control.
Thinking further, the motivation for Trump's behavior is to protect himself.In the November U.S. election, the Democratic Party is likely to obtain the majority of the Senate and maintain the majority of the House of Representatives.He was worried that if he could not be re -elected, whether the Democratic Party was fully governed, would he immediately settle his account for him and his family.
From the perspective of US politics, the election has always had bad relations in China and the United States. The candidates for the two parties have attacked China compared with each other, accusing each other for weakness in China.The Republican President Reagan was anti -China when he ran for election, but his two -term term was a rare Sino -American honeymoon.
From the perspective of the American elite, especially the right -wing, they finally awakened and finally became more real, forming a solid anti -China cross -party consensus.The logo of the strategic turning point is the national security strategy report released in December 2017. The strategic stability symbol is the strategic policy of the United States to the People's Republic of China, which was released in May 2020.
China response: gentle rationality, quiet view election
Each Sino -US relations turn sharply every time, China responds to passive, defensive, and rational.I hope this wave of tests is no exception.
From the perspective of Chinese, the core interests of the strategic is that the national rejuvenation must be necessary, and all action obey and serve this goal.China has no strength and ambitions to be the boss of the world. This is a bitter difference and a big pit. The United States can't carry it for 70 years. Nowadays, it often retreats, picks up, and shakes the burden.Therefore, it is not as good as the United States to continue to be the world police. As the second child, China is the world's auxiliary police. It does not challenge the existing and core international order.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has declared on July 22 that if the United States does not immediately revoke the relevant error decision, China will make a legitimate and necessary response.On the surface hints, the inside is actually a living. There are three options in China: not retaliation, retaliation, and weak revenge.
Can not be revealed.Take a step back the sea and the sky, and the face is important.Putin KGB has always showed the image of a tough guy.In the past century, the Soviet Union and Russia used the use of hard power.However, Putin is not a reckless husband.20On December 30, 16th, the departure president Obama released a big move and closed Russian consulates in Maryland and New York on the grounds of intervention in the US election to expel 35 Russian diplomats.Putin responded on the same day, and congratulated the American people and the President Trump Happy New Year.Trump quickly posted on Twitter and praised it. I always knew that (Putin) was very smart!
Can be retaliated slowly.Diplomacy is normal, it is normal to get revenge, and you don't have to execute immediately.The last time limit for the United States to drive Chinese diplomats in Houston is at 4 am on July 25, Beijing time.If China releases revenge this week, the author is a little disappointed, indicating that there is still a lack of diplomatic fire, only for a while, and not to better safeguard China's long -term interests and fundamental interests.Even if you want to retaliate, you may wish to postpone a week, lower -key and peaceful.
Can be retaliated weakly.Deng Xiaoping completely denied the Cultural Revolution with huge political courage and found a new way for reform and opening up. As a result, the CCP and China therefore won new students in despair.Opening is mainly open to the developed western. Chinese diplomacy has always attached the most importance to Sino -US relations and does not want Sino -US relations to collapse.The United States did not find a large museum in China in New York, but a relatively remote museum. It is a sister hall with the US consulate in Wuhan.If China retaliates, it should be excluded that the US consulate in Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Guangzhou should be too strong and the loss is too great; it is not necessary to close within three days as the United States is as harsh, and it may be relaxed to seven or ten days.
On the morning of July 24, the Chinese side notified the United States to close the Consulate General in Chengdu.There is no announcement of the shutdown period, only to say that the consul to stop all businesses and activities for specific requirements, and at the same time emphasize that peer retaliation meets the basic guidelines of international law and international relations, and in line with diplomatic practice.Seeing, responsibility is exactly the United States.This clearly shows that China still maintains rational restraint.
China and the United States have fallen into the trap of Xunxione and on the edge of the Cold War.This is an inevitable price for the rise of peace in China, and it is also a necessary test.If you ca n’t carry it, you do n’t have hope for the rise and revival. Frankly, if you do n’t match, others do n’t accept it.
Given that the November election in the United States is a large variable, Sino -US relations will inevitably continue to be turbulent.In the next three months, the U.S. epidemic will continue to lose control, the economy will continue to be weak, Trump is more torment and anxiety, and will actively find faults everywhere and shift the focus.For example, the author's attack on Iranian warships, such as violating the security of the Security Council, was not surprised.
In the second half of this year, China must be calm, tolerate for a while, and see the changes in quietness.This is not good for the friendly exchanges of the Chinese and American people's friendly exchanges and civil exchanges, but also gives the excuses for continued big moves in the U.S. right. Trump's room has a smaller room.
Russia proposed the Security Council to hold the Head of state five to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations, which is a good idea.People are emotional animals, and they must always be interconnected and moved. How can I get close to each other?Video conferences are better than not to contact, and interviews are better than videos. Even if there are differences in conflicts, sitting down and quarreling are better than putting cold guns behind them.The first Sino -US dollar in late September or early October, if there is a chance to talk alone at the UN headquarters, it will not expect that the relationship will improve, and it is expected to stop loss.
(Note: The author is an independent commentator, WeChat account: sswysp. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
