Cao Xin: Trump's policy for China is mainly for the next presidential election. China may continue to observe that after the new US president is generated, it will establish a big strategy for the United States.

Last week, China -US relations can be described as lively and explosive news.

First of all, the United States suddenly changed its consistent policy for the sovereignty of the South China Sea, and advocated that China's territorial territorial demands in the South China Sea request illegal and encouraged countries and China to fight for sovereignty; then US President Trump announced the cancellation of Hong Kong's special status; and then the United States was the United States.The media also reported that the U.S. government intends to prohibit the Chinese Communist Party members and their families travel to the United States, and may even revoke these people's visas to the United States.

However, it can be found that the above -mentioned policies do not have new and substantial specific implementation measures, and there is no specific time for implementation.Further investigation, it is found that it is actually difficult to implement.So the only role they produced was that it caused explosive propaganda of the United States and the world's major media and created a global momentum.

This may also be the effect that the US government wants to achieve.Therefore, the logical explanation is that all of the above are mainly for the next presidential election.Because as time is getting closer to the election, Trump needs to divert the domestic madness of the American epidemic, and the most suitable Chinese topic is the more later, the more the case.In this context, China may continue to observe. After the new president of the United States is generated, it will establish a big strategy to the United States and implement it.After all, Sino -US relations affect the national movement, and it is difficult for anyone to bear the world's historical responsibility.

Tell China about things for election

The reason why the actions in the United States are for election needs, first of all, because there are no specific behaviors.Regardless of whether it is the South China Sea issue, the Hong Kong issue or the prohibition of Communist Party members and their families to travel to the United States, there is no specific content and specific time to implement it.

The reason for this is that the Japanese media see it very much.The Kyodo News Agency reported on July 15: Trump strives to be re -elected in the presidential election in November. This is part of his restrictions that he realized in the conservative crowd (the votes are important).This should avoid the purpose of criticism of the government's epidemic.To achieve Trump's above -mentioned purposes, it is far better than acting because it has only benefits and no side effects.Therefore, the above -mentioned sanctions against China have become specific actions that have only attitudes and no substantial action.

Moreover, some sanctions on China are actually difficult to implement in the United States.The Hong Kong Ming Pao said on July 16th that Hong Kong is a single economy in the United States earning the highest trade surplus with a surplus of up to 240 billion Hong Kong dollars. The goods exported to the United States for only one billion yuan a year.The impact on Hong Kong's economy is small.If Hong Kong also sanctions the United States in turn, in the face of this obvious basic situation of interests, the United States has been so attractive in the economy. How can we implement sanctions in Hong Kong?

Even the most loud financial sanctions of public opinion in the workshop, Ming Pao Society also believes that theoretically, Washington can use relevant power to combat the Hong Kong banking system, or heavy penalties.Controlled, but if the United States go to this step, Beijing will also have nuclear bomb -level countermeasures.This is why Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and other banks are currently planning how to take the steel line under the struggle between China and the United States. I hope that it can continue to promote business in Hong Kong and the Mainland, while avoiding sanctioned mines.

Therefore, the United States talks about China, and the purpose is actually to divert the focus of the domestic epidemic.

Under normal circumstances, the most important thing used to the US presidential election is domestic achievements, especially economic results, diplomacy is not important, especially for grassroots voters.Similarly, the key to Trump's re -election is also in domestic economic results, especially his basic voters' recognition of this.But this year's epidemic ruined everything in his first term, and it was impossible to have economic results.Therefore, this year Trump's campaign strategy is obvious: first to inform voters and believe that his struggle with China has won and allowed American products to be exported to China. This was successful.As the election voting is getting closer and closer, he will use the means to force China to buy some American goods in accordance with the first phase of the US -China economic and trade consultation agreement to prove that he is saying.In this way, from the focus of the epidemic attention and actual achievements, the focus of the US epidemic was successfully shifted.

In order to achieve the above goals, he currently need to put pressure on China to put pressure on China.The second strongest country of the world economy in China is also very tough. During the entire epidemic period, China did not loosen the issues in the South China Sea, Taiwan, Diaoyu Islands, South Asia, Hong Kong.The huge pressure on China has shaped the basic situation that conducive to the purpose of Trump's purpose.As long as Trump puts pressure on China, the pressure on all parties of the above issues will naturally point to China.In the end, China is certainly willing to use some American products to alleviate these pressures. Originally, these products also needed, so Trump achieved the above purposes.Throughout last week, the US government's issues of the South China Sea, Hong Kong issues and the prohibition of the issues that banned Communist Party members from traveling to the United States were to form pressure on China to achieve their own goals.In this way, through the US media reports on these themes, the focus of the US epidemic report can be transferred.

In addition, it is foreseeable that as the voting day of the United States election is getting closer, the U.S. epidemic problem that cannot be avoided will be proposed in the United States. At that time, Trump will not hesitate to throw the US serious epidemic to China, or even evenIncluding the World Health Organization.Among them, it must include the story of Dr. Wuhan. It will be accused of concealing the Wuhan epidemic in the United States and the world throughout December last December.There are also WHO to help China conceal the epidemic and so on.All this is for Trump for re -election.

In this way, China only needs to give a certain response.If Trump wants to elect, China is actually difficult to intervene; without waiting for the new president, China cannot finally determine the strategy of the United States.

Only by generating a new president can you decide

The reason why China needs the new President of the United States to determine the strategy of the United States. This still depends on interests and gains and losses, and different US presidents and different policies will have different consequences.In view of the strong personality of Trump and the US status in the world economy and politics, there are many countries in the world that are considered this topic, and some are not reference.

A veteran of a mainstream media in Japan analyzed the author: Trump was elected president, which is better for China than worship.The reason is that if anti -China, Trump has no ally in the world.It is certain that the European Union and Japan will not not benefit himself against him.The Japanese government's policy is: security depends on the United States, the economy depends on China, and the worst thing is that the US economy is no longer possible.The Kyodo News Agency judged when analyzing the new South China Sea policy on July 15: It is unclear whether the Trump administration who can contempt at the alliance can build a surround network and take effective countermeasures.

Therefore, Trump should be limited to China, and if it is a US family against China, I am afraid that he will not be able to win.

But if Bayeng was elected, it would be troublesome at that time, because Bayeng attached importance to allies.At that time, if Biden implements anti -China policies, he will unite allies to act together, and some of China's controversial or high -international recognition issues will be more likely to participate in these allies, and China's pressure will be unprecedentedly increased unprecedentedlyEssence

In addition to Japan, some European countries simply expressed their dissatisfaction with Trump, saying that they would never be with him with China.

There is also an uncertain key issue. Who will be elected as the president of the United States?There are also different opinions on this.

Japanese people believe that there is a point of view in the Japanese government that Trump may not be elected for re -election because the bad epidemic and economy in the United States.Japanese economic people believe that the US economy is definitely not good.

In summary, under the circumstances of all the key elements above, in fact, it cannot make any major decisions, let alone dance with the United States.At present, China can only be observed first. After the new president of the United States is born, it is determined to be a little bit of the United States.

(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.