Yang Chao
On June 18, US President Trump posted on Twitter that completely decoupling with China is still one of the US policy options.Where did Trump come from?Can China and the United States be completely decoupled as he said?
If the decourse really means returning to the country, retreating and self -defending, and even just the Alliance of European and American small groups. This prospect should be unbearable for the United States.
If it is said that to support India or Vietnam to become a commodity manufacturer, at least this is theoretically theoretical at the national strategic level of the United States.Although Vietnam has been increasing since last year, the latest progress of the two sides has only proposed the United States to develop strategic partnership with Vietnam.As for India, there is no sign of active closer to the United States.
Furthermore, if the policy of China is imitated to the Soviet Union, the power of the United States is unknowingly grasped.The most important thing is that the American partner can't keep up with it?If you don't keep up, the Chinese market share that the United States is lost will be easily occupied by other countries.A briefing of the British and China Trade Association mentioned that one of the first strategic measures after Brexit after Brexit should not abandon a country and market with a population of 1.4 billion.France and other countries will not follow the United States to contain against China, thereby harming its business interests in China.
The Trump administration did not integrate the ability and willingness of the allies. Instead, he had a lot of money with the allies in terms of economic interests, and he had to make up for the loss of the United States.In this way, the European and American joint front has expanded from the Seven CPC Industrial Group (G7) to the top ten industrial groups (G10) or more. Coordinating and consistently responding to China's ideas, it is also impossible in the current situation of political and economic.
In addition, if the United States and China do not communicate with China, it is necessary to guard against each other in terms of security.In this way, frequent use of the army will consume the US national strength faster and accelerate its decline.Although Trump has gradually strengthened its military existence in Asia -Pacific, she still dare not engage in comprehensive military confrontation.Biden even believes that it is necessary to use clever strength, mainly allies, supplemented by the United States to reduce US military expenditure.From the perspective of strategic cost returns, completely decoupled and opposed is that the cost is too high for the United States, and the harvest is too small, so it cannot be a policy option for the time being.
At present, Trump's intention only uses decoustification as a bargain to obtain more favorable results in economic and trade negotiations with China.To achieve this, Trump certainly expressed its decoupling as one of the options in the external announcement.
Earlier, the White House trade representative Leitzizer gave a speech at the US House of Representatives that the two largest economies in the world's largest economies could not be decoupled; at present, this is not a reasonable policy option.Leitchizer was not full, and Trump hurriedly came out to say that decoupling was a policy option.Trump didn't want China to think that the United States could not decompose with China, because when he was negotiating with China, he had no chips to use it.
It can also be used as a reference for Trump's diplomacy for North Korea.Trump also claims to combat military forces as one of the options on the table, but whether it can really use force must involve many domestic and foreign factors.
For the former U.S. national security adviser Bolton, who was holding a tough attitude on the North Korean issue, Trump had such a evaluation: I like Bolton's only point that everyone thinks he is crazy.When you walk into the room with him, you are in a favorable negotiation position, because others think that if Bolton is there, you will start a war.It can be seen that Bolton's role is the eagle dog who deterred opponents.In the same way, Trump let some eagle people shout around, and can become a major bargaining chip on the negotiating table at China.
Trump's campaign slogans and policies after policies are all around the United States again.According to Bolton, Trump does not like to understand and study strategic issues.Bolton also said that Trump may have first -class business trading talents in the Manhattan real estate industry, but insufficient experience in dealing with military control agreements on strategic weapons and other international security issues.From the perspective of Trump's attitude of dealing with foreign affairs in the past, he was basically a pragmatic, and he was used to trading strategies such as extreme pressure and chips. Theoretical or ideological impact on him was not great.
Although it is unlikely to be achieved for the time being, it is still alert to the decoustal measures that the United States and will take.The United States is already implementing technology to decompose, restricting Chinese students and researchers in Chinese, and exposure to the United States' high -tech and advanced technologies.The second is financial decoupling, restricting China outside the global financial cycle, restricting China ’s listing of financing in the United States, and may even take certain financial restrictions on China at unspecified time.Third, companies are decoupled and Chinese companies are not allowed to enter the United States.Fourth, security has been shifted from cooperation to prevention. What can be seen now is that the United States has strengthened its military investment in Asia -Pacific, seized cutting -edge deployment, and stirred the contradictions between neighboring countries.In the South China Sea, in the Taiwan Sea, the United States is constantly touching China's bottom line.
The United States is a country with a strategic experience. It will not declare war on their opponents easily, but it is accustomed to constantly making the other party uncomfortable with various oppressive policies, forcing the other party to make a mistake and eventually make mistakes.This approach to the United States can be called a suppression strategy.In the case of pressing in the United States, it is not ruled out that China and the United States will really decide gradually in various fields.
For Trump, decoupling may only be the bargaining chip of its transactions, but it does not rule out that the hardliners have taken the opportunity to take advantage of the tension between Sino -US relations.Recently, a number of resolutions that the U.S. Congress closely introduced in interference in China's internal affairs also reflects this trend.It is now near the end of the year at the end of the year. In this case, it is difficult to achieve results in China and the United States in the short term.This makes it difficult to suppress this trend.
Everything will change from quantitative to qualitative change.Maybe we should not be concerned about the development and changes of the factors that contribute to the factors of Sino -US departure and cooperation.China should prepare for both hands, on the one hand, develop its own forces, and reduce the damage to its own impact on it; on the one hand, promote the cooperation between China and the United States, continue to deepen friendly cooperation, and consolidate the relationship between the two countries.
The author is the Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences, China
Associate Researcher of Southeast Asia Research Institute
In the case of pressing in the United States, it is not ruled out that China and the United States will really decide gradually in various fields.For Trump, decoupling may only be the bargaining chip of its transactions, but it does not rule out that the hardliners have taken the opportunity to take advantage of the tension between Sino -US relations.Recently, a number of resolutions that the U.S. Congress closely introduced in interference in China's internal affairs also reflected this trend.
