How will the coronary virus epidemic change history and reshape world order?This depends on the progress of the epidemic and how the international community will respond.However, the people and the government are not good at learning lessons from history. Unnecessary disputes, guessing, racial discrimination and exclusion in the society, and various conspiracy theories that are common in the society have interfered with the international community to carry out effective development of the anti -epidemic situation to fight against the epidemic situation.cooperate.
The epidemic strongly impacted the real world and people's ideas. In the future, it depends not only on challenges, but also on response.Standing at the crossroads of history, the international community should make the right choice.
Globalization reversal or upgrade
The power of coronal virus is far better than tariffs, and suddenly changes market demand, financial environment and commodity prices, and the global industrial chain will also be adjusted.If the epidemic continues for a long time, the localized and regional supply chain will become a real choice. Multinational enterprises will sacrifice some efficiency and seek more diverse and more stable supply.
The change of concept will accelerate the process.The shortage of epidemic prevention supplies in Europe and the United States has strengthened awareness of supply security, allowing President Trump to include the industrial chain into national security.As the flag bearer and defender of globalization and free trade, Prime Minister Merkel called at the Euro Zone Treasury Association: Europe should learn lessons from the great popularity and develop self -sufficient self -sufficiency in important medical devices.Similar concepts are popular again, and multinational companies are facing greater pressure. The United States and Japan have issued policies to subsidize the relocation of enterprises.
Food, energy, personnel, cross -border flow and other issues, as well as sovereignty and independence behind them, will attract more attention.Reconstruction of global risks has become a strong wave of thought, which will definitely give birth to stricter regulation and more positive guidelines to alleviate political and security concerns.Will the epidemic end the globalization of this round of globalization in dramatic?Will it be predicted by many people to return to or even earlier models in the 1990s?It is difficult to imagine that the world economy will make such a huge adjustment stable and smooth.
The biggest possibility is still no major changes.Because the power of capital and the inertia of history are so powerful.The world will restore the old appearance, and leave all kinds of risks and dissatisfaction until the next crisis.The other may be tragedy, that is, the lack of collaboration or even neighbors when the major countries respond to the crisis, which leads to the disintegration of the existing economic system and reproduce the situation in the 1930s.Layon later, or is it immediately liquidated?
The international community should work together to avoid the above two situations and promote global transformation and upgrading.Economic globalization is so serious that nationalism and populism that stimulates nationalism and populism have made global governance difficult.If a strong structural adjustment cannot be achieved, the crisis will follow, accompanied by a more tragic liquidation.From this perspective, the suspension and restart of the global economy are a rare opportunity for reform.
Two themes of political narrative
Previously, political narratives mostly focused on the game of great powers, the conflict of civilization, and the dispute between models, and the confrontation between democracy and authority was always through the concept of the axis.This perspective has led to catastrophic consequences, that is, the West's contempt and slowness of Chinese anti -epidemic experience.To set the epidemic to outbreak in other countries, the western epidemic prevention will be more keen. At least it will not waste a lot of time and ridicule, and it will not be so resistant to existing experience.
Western society is difficult to face up: authoritarian countries have achieved what they can't do.After the outbreak of the epidemic, some government changes the positive evaluation of China's resistance. It is difficult to hide suspicion, anger and questioning, which is precisely due to this sense of frustration.Francis Middot; Francis Fukuyama wrote an explanation that this is not the failure of the free democratic system, but the issue of national capacity. Democracy and authority do not naturally determine the high national capabilities.This defense attributes the responsibility on the ruling authorities, and theoretically restores some faces for the free democracy system.
However, does this explanation mean that political narrative should adopt more frameworks and perspectives such as good governance and government effectiveness to dilute the concept of democratic vs of authority?Or, we must continue to look at different political civilizations and development models from the perspective of dual -score law, or fade the ideological colors of ideology, and pragmly look at each other's lengths and losses to promote exchanges and mutual learning?Remember, the world often presented in the way people look at it.
Facts are post -facts
In the end, only science can defeat the virus.Prior to this, scientists must first defeat some widely circulated wrong views and various conspiracy theories.Whether wearing a mask is useful, the crown disease is a large influenza, and whether there is no vaccine to lift the alarm, these unpredictable things are at a loss with other government considerations and special media preferences.The traceability of the virus is even more entangled. Ordinary people cannot understand the professional articles on the willow -leaf knife, but they are easily attracted by the conspiracy theory of conspiracy in the media. ThereforeThey are major suspicions of manufacturing and spread viruses.
Obviously, the free market of counseling and thought will also fail, becoming a free market for rumors and emotions.In this market, the more emotional products, the higher the market share.Unfortunately, the government and traditional media have various purposes to make the end.President Trump deliberately dilutes the threat of the epidemic and exaggerates the role of hydroxyl chlorine. It is only two small cases.
Without debate, arguments, and reasoning, it can be established or cleared by claiming loudly or denying loudly, which is the unique charm of the fact that President Trump opened by President Trump.Its populist supporters do not care about the facts, and their positions and emotions are decisive.More than the United States, populism has been opened in the facts of the facts worldwide with the help of the echoing room effect of the media: it seems superfluous to explore the facts, and rational exchanges are increasingly scarce. Listening and pleasing have become almost lost virtues.
Can this new fashion be changed by the epidemic?Nowadays, epidemiological experts have become the new favorite of the public and the media. Can they re -evoke respect for science and facts, or is it Fu Shi?Looking at the situation of Dr. Fuki in the United States, I am afraid it is not very optimistic.
Where to go from social policy
In early April, Bernie's Middot; Bernie Sanders withdrew from the US presidential election. Although the surging infection and death toll at this time, he proved his fierce criticism of the US medical system.The left wave that he set off did not fade, but continued to affect the left turn of the Democratic Party.The sound of reviewing the medical system under the epidemic rose. Some of the previous abolition of the Obama Medical Insurance Act may become the weakness of the Trump administration.
Many countries are examining its medical system.After the results of the obtained phase, a well -known person in the health industry in China called for the restoration of free medical treatment for the whole people, referring to the existing medical insurance system to intensify the contradiction between doctors and patients.The Chinese society reflected on the development of the economy and ignored the development of society. The authorities then proposed the concepts of scientific development and harmonious society, and made up a lot of debt in the social field.It is expected that there will be similar improvements after the epidemic, and the leftists will then advocate that they want to restore some practices in the era of planned economy. This claim is quite attractive to people at the bottom.
In addition, countries have launched cash reliefs for the people. If the economy restarts difficult, these measures will continue to continue.Will the epidemic bring a universal left trend?If this is the case, will it help to solve the problems such as the expansion of the rich and the poor brought by globalization?It is difficult to generalize.At least cash and other emergency moves cannot replace real social reforms.Or vice versa, due to economic dilemma and anti -China emotions, it brings universal right turns?If politicians are deliberately manipulated, such a situation is difficult to protect the trade and geographical factors.
How to respond to the international community
The key to all issues is to strengthen international cooperation.If this epidemic lasts for more than a year, it may cause a political and economic crisis that has not been encountered for a century. The international community must make the worst plans to surpass the dispute, and work together to cross the difficulty.
The joint fight against the epidemic is the precious opportunity for rebuilding international mutual trust and cooperation.Lack of mutual trust, lack of common vision, and lack of strong leaders have led to the slowness of confusion in the anti -epidemic, which encourages pessimism.In this situation, whether it is to promote global transformation, or strengthen financial and economic policy coordination under crisis, or control geopolitical conflicts,Can't talk about it.
Trump stated in March that the United States will become a self -sufficient country.It seems difficult for him to accept this simple truth: under the epidemic of crown disease, no one can be alone.At the crisis, he could not expect the Trump administration to lead the United States to shoulders the responsibility of leaders of the international community.The European Union, China, and Japan cannot play this role alone. They can only hope that they will abandon and guess and strengthen collaboration as soon as possible.The international community should also urge American society to make the right choice early.
(The author is a legal adviser to Cultural Communication Company in Jilin Province, China)
