Author: Liu Guoxing
On June 30, US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong -un hurried for a while at the Non -Military Region (DMZ) of the South Korean North Korea.Experts and scholars fall below the glasses.Although the matter was temporarily in Trump, its innovation model deserves inquiring.
At the end of February of this year, after the failure of the Tetto -Time Session of the Hanoi at the end of February this year, it can be completely determined that the United States is a complete, tested and irreversible large trading nuclear abandonment in North Korea's nuclear issues.Through 10 rounds of economic sanctions, the Security Council forced North Korea to concessions.Because Kim Jong -un has not been able to build a nuclear abandonment and still guarantee the confidence of the regime, it is not possible to give up.In other words, in the whole situation, the United States occupies the upper hand. Unless Kim Jong -un took the first step and provided the nuclear military facilities and inventory lists most needed for the initial stage of the initial stage of the nuclear abandonment, it was possible to start bargaining.The Time Sanhui broke the mortar, and made the United States occupy the wind on the North Korean nuclear issue, and had the initiative.The meeting originated from Trump's active invitation, while Kim Jong -un cooperated with the performance.It is inevitable that there is no wind, and it is inevitable that the movement fails.
For Trump, in terms of obtaining, one is helpful for the re -election.The goal of Trump's re -election has been officially announced on June 19th and held the first momentum in Orlando, Florida.Trump, who has always broken his former dynasty's long -term strategic patience strategy of North Korea, no longer tolerate and show the ability and confidence to solve problems, and meet Kim Jong -un twice, and then can continue to harvest in political reputation.Seeing the failure effect of the Stekin II will impact the next campaign, he seek in a timely manner with Kim Jong -un. Even if he has not talked about abandoning the nuclear content, the existing strategy of the United States will not change.When you meet the three points, there is absolutely strong vision. In the minds of American voters, Trump's positive image on the North Korean nuclear issue can be maintained for a while.
Second, it can ease the war crisis between the United States and Iran.Since the beginning of May, the United States and Iraqi have been in the Bora Bay, and they have been attacked by Oman Bay for the second time. Iran is suspected of being very large.Iran also shot down the most advanced unmanned reconnaissance aircraft in the United States with the Russian-made S-300 air defense missile.Trump temporarily shouted a card to close, and did not take revenge on Iran. Although it was considered a battlefield that could not be able to clean up, it was further the same strategy to respond to the Iraq and North Korea nuclear issues.If you can put a reconciliation attitude on the North Korean nuclear issue, it will make Iranian decision makers consider the absolute beauty mentality.
In terms of losing, this time Kim Jong -un cooperated with Trump's performance, so that Trump reached several wishes. Although the strategy of both parties will not change easily, Trump owes gold in interpersonal relationships.Pu will also carry the pressure of return.
Trump has a loss, and Trump has a loss. In contrast, it is greater than lost.Therefore, for Trump, it is wise.
(The author is also an associate professor at the Political Department of National Taiwan University)
