Ye Shengzhou: Free trade becomes a consensus and constitutes restrictions on him; the Sino -US trade war is recovered by him; he suddenly suggested that Banmenjian Tetan Three will be led by him.
The spotlight on the world stage is always continuously beating on the strong or strong country.The G20 Osaka Summit is no exception. All three hot spots are focused on Trump. The difference is that one is restricted to him, one is restored by him, and one is led by him.
Restrictions: free trade becomes consensus
Looking at the world, Shinzo Abe is an outstanding politician, and the typical eagle hard core is packed by beautiful pigeons shells.In domestic politics, he has a solid status, and the House of Representatives has stabilized more than two -thirds of the seats, becoming the longest prime minister in Japan after World War II; the revision of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution (the political obsession of his and his family) has been arrowed on the string.The Japanese Senate re -elected on July 21 that the ruling alliance received more than two -thirds of the seats.In international politics, he can flex and stretch, and deal with US -China -Russia relations. After Trump withdrew from TPP, he became the chief push and spokesperson of CPTPP.
The biggest highlight of the G20 Osaka Summit is to obtain free trade consensus in the Osaka Declaration, which is indispensable for Abe.He commented at the press conference after closing. The leaders of the summit clearly confirmed the trade system of freedom, fairness, and non -discrimination, and determined to lead the economic development to reach an agreement.This key position wanted to join last year, the G20 Buenos Aires Summit, because the United States opposed it and did not succeed.Abe finally realized, subjectively safeguarded the vital interests of the country, and objectively made a positive contribution to the growth of world economic growth.
Since Trump's two and a half years, the United States has prevailed unilateralism and protectionism. The countries around the world, including allies, have repeatedly been impacted, have repeatedly complained, and have contempt for distress. They have jointly acted.The G20 summit also tried to add the wording of protectionism in the declaration as last year. It was also unsuccessful because of the opposition of the United States, but it has formed a powerful restraint on the United States.The Paris Climate Agreement has formed two camps of G1VS.G19. On the one hand, it is the lonely United States, and the other is the remaining 19 G20 members to reiterate the irreversible commitment.
Of course, it is not possible to overestimate the sincerity of the United States' consent to write the three principles of free trade consensus, which does not mean that the US position is loose.As the only superpower, it defines its own fairness.The first bilateral summit of the China -US dollar is open for the media for a few minutes according to the practice. According to the video released by VOA in the United States, Trump reads the scriptures in the opening white: we must make some efforts to seek fairness in trade. If we can reach a fair trade agreement, we can reach a fair trade agreement.That will have historical significance.It can be seen that Trump believes that the huge trade deficit is unacceptable and unfair to the United States.Logically extending, for the United States, unilateral sanctions, revenge, and jurisdiction are legitimate and fair.
Trump's tariff sticks have waved the entities such as the European Union, Turkey, Mexico, Canada, China, and India, and have begun to threaten Vietnam.He knew the double -edged sword lethality of the tariff, but was keen to use this simple, rude, powerful, and efficient weapon to quickly force the target country to make more concessions and open the door of the market.
Restore: The Sino -US trade war is re -entered negotiations.
There is no doubt that during the G20 Osaka Summit, the most eye -catching is the first bilateral summit between China and the United States, passing the following five consensus:
First, both sides have no intention of fighting.The sky did not fall, and China and the United States did not lose their rationality.After another round of mutual test of the bottom line and the tough contest, the two sides no longer upgrade the trade war, and agreed to restart economic and trade consultations on the basis of equality and mutual respect.The United States will no longer impose tariffs on $ 350 billion in Chinese products; in fact, Trump did not want to formally implement it at all, but just raised the limits of the chips.
Second, both sides intend to make concessions.Trump took the initiative to call on June 19, and had clearly transmitted the ease signal in advance, and quickly gave the capital market with blood.According to the strength of the two countries, it is normal for China to make more concessions on the issue of non -principles. The United States has more miles and more faces in China.Trump proposed at a bilateral summit that he hoped that China would increase imports from the United States.This sentence is vague. The benchmark line means that China ’s trade imports are currently in China. On February 22, CNBC, the United States, quoted people familiar with the matter that China agreed to buy US $ 1.2 trillion products from the United States in the seventh round of consultations.Liu
In an interview with the media on May 10th, Crane emphasized that the three core concerns of the Chinese side were not unsolved.The bottom line of the Chinese side is that sovereignty and dignity will never be concessions, and the bottom line of the United States is that the trade deficit must be significantly reduced.The two parties will find a balance point on the bottom line. Since there is already a political and compromise willingness, the rest is technical details. The text skills are not a problem.Trump attempts to increase the purchase amount significantly, and it can be added too much. It can be added appropriately. In China, the ruling party is not difficult to legislate and practice law, but it should be actively acting and cannot be pressured in the United States.
Third, both sides are unwilling to decide.China did not directly take Huawei during the talks, but indirectly mentioned that the United States hopes that the United States will treat Chinese enterprises and Chinese students fairly.Trump said in the talks that I have no hostility to China and hope that the relationship between the two countries will be better and better.Moreover, at the press conference after the talks, it publicly responded publicly and actively to relax the restrictions on Huawei. American companies should be allowed to continue to sell products from Huawei; no longer framed almost every international student from this country is spy!Instead, I hope that more Chinese students will study in the United States, and they will also leave them with a green card.
This adds a booster to China and the United States as soon as possible to reach the trade agreement as soon as possible.
Fourth, both sides have prepared.Trump admits in the opening of the bilateral summit that we are fully open to this (reaching an agreement), and I know you are also open.On June 28, ... at the G20 summit, it was announced to announce the five major measures to accelerate the formation of a new situation of opening up to the outside world: further expanding the opening of agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and service industries; autonomously reduced tariffs, eliminates non -tariff trade barriers, and took the initiative to take the initiative.Expand import; implement a new foreign investment legal system on January 1 next year to improve the level of intellectual property protection; equally treat Chinese foreign -funded enterprises registered in China; vigorously promote Polygons of RCEP, China, Europe, China, and South Korea.negotiation.China and countries in the world have taken the initiative to do it.
Fifth, both sides weaken mutual trust.The style preferences of Korean official media preference for high -level adjectives and adhesions, Trump's style preferences exaggerated, evaluating the bilateral summit had a very good meeting, and the results were exceeded expected.From the body language of the two heads of state, it can be judged that at the collective summit on June 28, it was serious at the bilateral summit on the 29th, indicating that the mutual credibility declined.Based on their own interests, the two sides are willing to reach an agreement quickly. The trade war can come to an end, but the comprehensive competition and contest of China and the United States have begun.
China's harvest at the Osaka Summit can score 9.0 points. Although the Sino -US trade war has not been completely resolved, it still achieves strategic goals through a hard -handed strategy.In the past, China can make more concessions on non -principle issues, but less than the United States. In order to expand opening up and consolidate free trade and multilateralist united fronts, isolation in the United States, alleviating its own pressure.There are two things that are not optimistic:
First, the fixed tone of Sino -US relations based on coordination, cooperation, and stability is not optimistic.Although the Chinese and US dollar capital said this at the summit, it is still uncertain whether it can be as expected.The politics of cross -border cross -party anti -China chorus has been formed in the United States. It has not worked hard for many years and cannot be reversed.Fortunately, the President of Trump is greater than the disadvantages of China, and he should cut it with the right right wing in the United States.For example, Bolton encouraged military crackdown on Iran, Trump was not manipulated, and stopped ten minutes before the military command was issued.
He is more concerned about the basic public opinion, his greatest interests (such as re -election), and the real interests of the United States (such as the trade deficit), not ideological and the long -term interests of the United States.
Second, it is not optimistic about the United States.China has always regarded Taiwan's issue as the primary and core issues of Sino -US relations.According to the Xinhua News Agency's draft, ... at the summit, the Chinese government's principled position on Taiwan's issue was explained, and Trump said that the United States continued to pursue a Chinese policy.I did not see the original video of Trump's statement.From China and the United StatesSince the establishment of diplomatic relations, the US official standards and complete statements have always been: the United States based on the Taiwan relations law and three joint communiqués of the United States.
When the Chinese media are cited, the first half of the sentence is omitted, which will inevitably mislead the people.The United States puts domestic legislation in front of and above the joint bulletin between the country.On March 16, 2018 and May 7, 2019, the US Congress passed the Taiwan Travel Law and the Taiwan Guarantee Law. Although there was no binding force on the US administrative department, it still clearly stated that heating up at an attempt to rise with Taiwan.
Leading: Suddenly suggested Terko Sanhui
Trump's uncertainty is indeed unpredictable. The summit with Kim Jong -un will not play cards again.Suddenly I agree with the first summit of Singapore, and quickly recover after the cancellation of the temporary cancellation; the Hanoi Summit's small -scale talks and laughter, and the large -scale talks suddenly dispersed; the G20 Osaka Summit visited South Korea, and suddenly proposed on the Twitter on the morning of June 29th.The third meeting with Kim Jong -un at the non -military district on the South Korean border.
North Korean official media is good at fighting, and has long attacked the free Korean party and the Japanese government in the wild in South Korea.After the Tetan Second Society broke the game, the Korean official media resumed the attack on the United States and Wen Zaiyin. As a result, the wind -oriented was judged that the relationship between the United States and the North Korea and North Korea had significantly cooled the relationship.For example, on June 27, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of North Korea was responsible for the US affairs director Quan Zhenggen made a conversation, accusing the United States of verbally discuss the DPRK -US dialogue, but in fact, it is unprecedentedly viciously opposed to North Korea's hostile behavior;Expecifies rsquo; Public opinion in the United States and the United States in an attempt to raise its value.
On June 28, the Chaozhong News Agency must immediately cancel the harmful and unpredictable act, attacking the US and South Korean authorities to decide to carry out LSQUO; Alliance 19-2rsquo; joint military exercises.
On April 12, Kim Jong -un delivered a governance speech at the first meeting of the 14th Supreme People's Conference in North Korea to attack the United States for conspiracy activities; self -prociment value, the third summit of the North Korea and the United States was like the Hanoi Summit.No interest; the ultimatum of toughness to the United States, to restart DPRK and the United States, and the United States needs to come up with the right algorithm. The deadline is by the end of the year.
No one expected that Trump responded as appointments, and he took the initiative to invite, visited, and even proposed to set foot on North Korean territory.This is an unprecedented and unexpected diplomatic victory for North Korea.Kim Jong -un, who was trapped in the international community, was overjoyed and was glad to accept it.A few hours later, Cui Shanji, the first director of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responded through the North Korean Society. The proposal was very interesting.
At 15:46 local time on June 30th, Trump and Kim Jong -un shook hands at Banjidian and held the third summit for 40 minutes.As a result, four years in the first 66 years of the Korean Peninsula's suspension of war: For the first time, the US President has set foot on the North Korean territory. For the first time, it has achieved the US -North Korea Summit at Panmunnia.It is indeed a symbolic moment in the history of international relations.
This summit should be a temporary motion.When Kim Jong -un and Trump met, I was very surprised when I learned that you invited you to invite on Twitter. I am honored to enter the Korean territory across the 38th line through Trump.
It is a good thing to restore the Nuclear negotiations, and this is a good thing, but it does not mean that the positions of the two parties are substantially shaken.Trump attempts to build better private relations and promote the improvement of US -DPRK relations. The author is pessimistic about it.First of all, Trump is easy to change, good change, and private relationships are not firm.Look at Macron's visit to the United States in April 2018, Trump's hotness, and then look at the relationship between him and Macron today; he said that many senior officials and cabinet ministers in the White House are good people, but they are not soft with dismissal and firing.The head of the country (including China) is a friend, but unilateral sanctions and long -armed jurisdictions are not ambiguous.
Secondly, the US -DPRK's security interest structure has not changed.Trump is a political amateur. He does not care about the old -fashioned old -fashioned sets. He tried to exchange the essence of Kim Jong -un with the illusion and friendship created by the summit.The problem is that North Korea abandoned the nuclear in CVID. It involves the security of the Kim family and the North Korean regime. It is by no means easy, and it is also difficult to make it as Trump's wishes.
Only when the United States and the Security Council have maintained severe sanctions for 2-3 years can Kim Jong-un developed a dilemma.If he retreats, he dare not restore the nuclear guidance test, otherwise the early diplomatic efforts will be drifted, and the United States will inevitably draft the 11th upgraded sanctions resolution of the Security Council in the United States. China will not help it.If you enter, it means that he has further moved closer to the United States on the issue of abandoning the nuclear, and Saddam, Gaddafi, and Assad will be a lesson.
Kim Jong -un and Wen Zaiyin praised Trump's bravery, decisive, very brave, with compliments.Successive presidents of the United States meet with the Supreme Leaders of North Korea in Panmunjom. It is not appropriate.Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il have always been eager to throw off China and directly talk with the United States and build diplomatic relations.Wen Zaiyin revealed at a press conference after the Three Party Summit that the North Korean and Korean leaders' meetings will be held not far away in the future, indicating that South Korea is eager to try to be the middle and the US -DPRK's middlemen and mediate people.
Trump wisely proposed that it was not in a hurry to reach the Nuclear Agreement, and the speed was not the goal.Trump, who is rich and expensive, has two obsession and obsession: First, win the Nobel Peace Prize by solving the North Korean nuclear issue; second, the daughter Ivanka is trained as the first female president in the United States.The American right -wing elite can persuade him to patience.Perhaps President Trump will solve the problem of the North Korean nuclear, sign the North Korean peace agreement, build diplomatic relations with the United States and North Korea, and receive the Nobel Peace Award MDASH; mdash; may not be Donald Bull; Trump, but Ivanka Bull; Trump; Trump; Trump; Trump; Trump;Essence
(Note: The author is an independent commentator, WeChat public account ID: sswypl. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
