In the disappointment of China's economic stimulus policy, mainland China and the Hong Kong stock market fell for the third consecutive week.Analysts warn that if the official repeatedly allows the market expectations to fail, it will become more difficult to boost confidence.
After the sluggishness of the Lugang stock market in the first half of the year, the first week of the second half of the year continued to fall.The CSI 300 Index fell for three days after the rebound this week, and received 3825.7 points on Friday (July 7), a decrease of 0.4 % throughout the week.After the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell nearly 600 o'clock on Thursday (6th), it fell from 167.35 points to 18365.7 points on Friday, which has fallen 19.1 % from the high point at the end of January this year.
The day before, the official Chinese official released the news that it will introduce the economic and consumer policies.
When Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang hosted a seminar on an economic situation on Thursday, he requested a timely promotion and implementation of a number of policy measures, but did not provide specific details.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Liu Shangxi, the dean of the Chinese Academy of Finance Sciences, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, Tian Xuan, deputy dean of the Wudaokou Financial College of Tsinghua University, and Huang Xianhai, deputy president of Zhejiang UniversityEight experts and scholars.
Li Qiang listened to the opinions and suggestions of experts and scholars on the current economic situation and economic work, and pointed out that China is currently in the critical period of economic recovery and industrial upgrading.Prevent risks, etc., promptly introduce and implement a batch of targeted, combined and synergistic policies and measures.
He also emphasized that it is necessary to establish and improve the normalized communication mechanism of various types of enterprises such as government, private enterprises, foreign -funded enterprises, in -depth understanding of new situations and new issues, timely improvement of policy measures, and further boosting confidence and stable expectations.
This is the third time that Li Qiang has promised at least a month that he will take measures to boost the economy.At the executive meeting of the State Council in mid -June, he asked to take "more powerful measures" to promote the rise of the economy. Last week, he reiterated at the World Economic Forum Summit at Tianjin. Beijing will launch more, more effective and pragmatic.Measures to boost demand.
The Ministry of Commerce of China revealed that the Ministry of Commerce has drafted policy documents to promote home consumption in conjunction with relevant departments, and proposed specific measuresRecently issued ".
The expectations of a package of stimulus policy once led the stock market to rebound sharply.However, after the interest rate reduction of the People's Bank of China on June 20, the large -scale steady growth measures expected by investors have not been released.
Xie Dongming, director of the research director of the Greater China of Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank, was analyzed during an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that the current Chinese economy is "macro heat, micro -cold": Although macro data is not bad, confidence is unstable transmitted to the micro level, which is from the market.The depression is evident."Introduce a package of measures as soon as possible, let people see hope from the micro level, it is the signal that is currently urgently needed."
Xie Dongming pointed out that in his speech, Li Qiang mentioned the establishment and improvement of the normalized communication mechanism with private enterprises and foreign companies. In fact, it was the good news of boosting confidence, but it did not seem to be attracted to the market.EssenceHe also warns that if the market expects to fail again and again, the cost of boosting confidence may be much higher than the original.
The chief economist of Zhongliang Pang Pang Yan believes that Li Qiang's latest speech shows that the Chinese government will maintain the route formulated by the leadership at the April meeting.He pointed out to Bloomberg that relevant policies are still being formulated, but it is unlikely that large -scale stimuli is occurred. The government needs to balance between short -term stable growth and avoiding long -term structural risks.
After the policies of the first half of the year are looking forward to the failure, investors will turn their attention to the Politburo meeting held at the end of July, hoping that the meeting of the economic work in the second half of the year will finalize a package of measures.Xie Dongming believes that as the Politburo meeting becomes a new focus of public opinion, the official should launch a stimulating policy during this period to stabilize market confidence.
