(Beijing/ Tokyo Comprehensive News) The latest report of the Japan Economic Research Center pointed out that if the rupture of China's real estate bubble caused the financial crisis, it may cause its economic growth rate to stagnate around 1%, and then endanger its GDP by 2035 to achieve GDP in China by 2035(GDP) Double the goal.

The Japan Economic Research Center issued the ninth Asian economic mid -term forecast report on Monday (December 18). Researchers set risk scenarios.The actual growth rate may be reduced to 0%, and it will be maintained at about 1%since then.The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar may depreciate from the current 7.1 to about 9.

In this scenario, the nominal GDP in China in 2035 will be 1.9 times that of 2020, and the per capita nominal GDP (in the US dollar) will only be slightly higher than $ 15,000 (S $ 20,000).The goal of achieving economic total economic or per capita income from 2035 proposed by China may be difficult to achieve compared with 2020.Even in the standard scenario, China's economic growth will continue to slow down to less than 3%by 2029, and by 2035 to less than 2%.

China's economic slowdown will also affect other economies. In addition to 17 countries and regions outside China, the actual growth rate in 2027 will be 0.7 to 0.9 percentage points lower than the standard situation.

According to the Nikkei report, the Chinese economy has been dragged down by real estate issues for more than two years.Officially strengthening financial support for real estate companies may bring too much burden on the financial system.If it is not handled properly, it may lead to a sluggish sales and a decline in prices, which will lead to increased bank bad debts and spreading risks in small and medium -sized banks.The report pointed out that the elimination of financial risks from real estate and local finances is the key to achieving the double GDP target in 2035.

The Japan Economic Research Center stated that if China promotes reform, including priority to handle non -performing loans and ease Sino -US relations, it will help to accelerate digital transformation and maintain productivity growth.In this scenario, the actual growth rate of China in 2035 can remain at 2.5%, but the nominal GDP will still be only about 80%of the United States.