The Chinese leadership has held two consecutive meetings to deploy economic work within a week.From the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China last week to this week A> There are many new expressions. Among them, the highest discussion is the setting of economic work next year: "Stability, progress, stabilize, and break first."

The Central Economic Work Conference in the past two years has emphasized "steady words and steady progress" when deploying the coming year;"" ".In the new statement, it is easier to understand "in promoting stability", that is, to solve the problem of stability through development.So, what is it first and then broken?

"Establishing first and then breaking" is not the first time, but it was mostly used to deploy carbon -saving and emission reduction.The Politburo Meeting in July 2021 proposed that it is necessary to "correct carbon reduction, set up and break first"; the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the same year mentioned again that "adjusting policies and promoting reforms must be grasped.Standing first, then break, stable and steady. "

In 2022, during the "Two Sessions" (National People's Congress and the CPPCC Annual Meeting), Chinese officials emphasized when participating in the review of the Inner Mongolia People's Congress.break".

Although "standing first and then break" is not a new method, it is proposed for the first time as the tone of economic work next year this year, indicating that the scope of guidance has expanded to the overall economic field.Although the meeting did not explain further, the viewers' views were similar.

The first team of Minsheng Bank wrote an interpretation of the fields of "Li" and "Break". In addition to the energy structure, it also includes the economic new and old kinetic energy and real estate development model.It is expected that the original model will run for a period of time before the new mechanism is officially formed.

Luo Zhiheng, chief macroeconomic analyst at the Department of Research from Yuekai Securities, believes that the practice of "touching the river with stones" and "progressive pilot" in the process of China's reform are the way to make a break first.The Chinese economy in the conversion period is particularly important.

Xu Gao, the chief economist of BOC International Securities, pointed out that the Politburo Conference will "set up first and then break" as the general tone of policy as a problem in the process of rectifying the conversion of the old and new kinetic energy of China, especially since 2021"Breaking" real estate industry.Although the government has continued to introduce a restoration policy over the past year, as the real estate industry has already fallen into a vicious circle due to the pressure of the "three red lines" policy, it is still bringing "broken" pressure.

According to this logic, in the past few years, in addition to the real estate market, there are also local finances that have deteriorated by failing due to the debt investment model, and the Internet companies that have been rectified to "prevent the disorderly expansion of capital", as wellIn the "double reduction", it is severely damaged.Some of them are in a deadlock because the original development model is difficult to follow, and still experienced pain in the transition period; some need to be rectified after many years of growth, but before the health development model is establishedvitality.

These "unbelievable first -first" fields have changed from the momentum that supported the high -speed growth of the economy to the resistance to dragging the economic recovery, and even the hidden risk hazards of the stability of the system.The meeting will prevent the risks of key areas such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium -sized financial institutions as one of the focus of economic work next year.And "standing first and then break" may become the idea of ​​resolving these hidden dangers of risks.

Taking the most concerned property market in the market as an example, this year's conference no longer reiterates the practice of removing the original development model such as "not housing housing" or "supporting rigid and improving housing demand".Steadyly resolving real estate risks, and equally, to meet the reasonable financing needs of different ownership of real estate enterprises, "showing that resolving risks is the primary task of real estate work.

In addition, the meeting also "improved relevant basic systems" before "accelerating the construction of a new model of real estate development", implying that it is necessary to lay a system foundation for the property market and then gradually establish a new model.

With the transformation of China's economy from a high growth stage to a high -quality development stage, the growth engine will gradually shift from investment to consumption. From traditional manufacturing to high -tech industries, the real estate industry will usher in a large shuffle, and local governments must also get rid of the local governments to get rid of the local government.Land fiscal model.This series of changes is not a day's work. While breaking the original development model, how to reduce the shock and impact brought by it, and the successful realization of industrial transformation and upgrading will be a longer period of next year and even the future.challenge.

After the three -year epidemic changes, the company is looking forward to a more certain policy guidance, and investors look forward to a more stable business environment.If you can implement the concept of "standing first and then break" into specific policies, it is believed that it will help boost the emotional of the private economy and alleviate market concerns.

However, before "broken", what should be "stand" and how to "stand", the two -day closed -door meeting minutes did not give a detailed plan.However, the meeting proposed that to strengthen the consistency of macro policy orientation, it means to strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies and form a joint force.Effectively coordinating and coordinating policies in different fields will be eliminated to eliminate obstacles to a certain extent.

Overall, this year's Central Economic Work Conference made a relatively objective judgment on the challenges of the economy, and also put forward new ideas for how to overcome challenges.Next, it depends on how these slogans are transformed into action. Through specific policies, people who do business in China can feel practical changes.