The China Index Research Institute said that the current property market policy environment is close to the easiest stage of 2014, but under factors such as weak demand and expected housing prices, the trend of falling house prices next year is expected to continue.
Comprehensive Securities Times and Daily Economic News reports, the Middle Finger Research Institute held the "2023 China Real Estate Big Data Annual Conference and 2024 China Real Estate Market Trends Report" on Thursday (December 7), and released China Real Estate Real EstateMarket 2023 Summary 2024 Outlook Report.
The report said that the national real estate market in 2024 will show the characteristics of "the sales scale still has downward pressure, the new start -up area, the development investment or continues to fall", andEssenceIn neutral situations, the sales area of commodity housing in 2024 is expected to decrease by 4.9%year -on -year, and the scale is about 1.1 billion square meters. In the case of optimism, the national commercial housing sales area may achieve a small increase.
The report pointed out that the supply and demand relationship of the Chinese real estate market has changed significantly this year, and government departments at all levels have frequently optimized the property market's policy to promote the stable operation of the real estate market.Factors such as weak income and falling housing prices are still restricting the rhythm of the market. "
The report revealed a set of data. From January to October this year, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 930 million square meters, a year -on -year decrease of 7.8%, and the sales of commercial housing was 9.7 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 4.9%.From the perspective of key cities, the sales area of new commercial housing in the key 100 cities from January to November decreased by about 5%year -on -year; the sales scale of second -hand housing in the 15 cities from January to October increased by 35%year -on -year.
The report states that although the central and government governments at all levels have increased their policy, the expected expectations of residents' income, the expectations of house prices have not improved significantly, and the policy effect is insufficient. At the end of the year, the market is still facing downward pressure.
The report further analyzes that the price of second -hand housing falls may lead to more demand for house buying into the second -hand housing market. In order to accelerate the return of funds in the second -hand housing, the price reduction promotion of new house projects may continue to increase. It is expectedPerforming weakness.
Looking for next year, the middle finger research institute believes that it is expected that in 2024, the restrictive policies introduced during the overheating phase of the market are still expected to continue to optimize the adjustment, and the policies of both ends of supply and demand have room for power.
