The nation in the pretty region in the territory in the northern Burma region, the nationThe "Three Brothers Alliance" of the armed organization "Three Brothers Alliance" launched joint military operations on October 27 and overthrowing the Myanmar Military Government as a call.route.
The northern Myanmar region, located in the Golden Triangle, is independent of the control of the Myanmar government due to its special historical, political, and geographical reasons.This conflict that lasted for nearly a month was regarded as the largest military challenge for the Myanmar military government since the victory section of 2021.
According to reports, the conflict of northern Myanmar has caused at least 200,000 people to escape from their homes.Myanmar ’s president Min Rui warned that if the serious conflict between the military and the northern ethnic minority local armed organizations is not handled, the country may be split, which is sufficient to show the grim of the situation.
China is connected to the landscape of Myanmar, with a border of 2,000 kilometers.Any conflict in northern Myanmar impacted China.This situation is more complicated because it involves the goal of the Chinese government to fight hard -the telecommunications fraud criminal gangs entangled on the China -Myanmar border, and also challenged China's stable position in China's maintenance region.
A military coup occurred in Myanmar in 2021. After overthrowing the election government led by Weng Shanshizhi, China was one of the few countries that deal with the Myanmar military government led by Min Angle.Beijing has not described that military coup as a "coup" so far.
At the same time, the chief alliance in the "Three Brothers Alliance" is a descendant of the Han nationality and is also related to the Chinese side.Wang Shilu, a Chinese Myanmar researcher, wrote that the overseas Chinese of the Kokang are actually "Yunnan Gang" in Myanmar and Chinese.
Western media: China acquies the military operations of northern Myanmar national armed organizations
China is interacted with the two sides of the confrontation, the military government and national armed organizations.However, this time, it did not prevent the northern Myanmar national armed organizations from being advanced near the Sino -Myanmar border.The BBC Chinese website reports that this may be disappointed by the inaction of the military government's inaction in the military government's inaction in the proliferation of the military government.The Three Brothers Alliance claims that one of their goals is to sweep the northern Myanmar fraud park.
Chinese police have no law enforcement power abroad, and can only be arrested by Myanmar.Strong support.After Ming Xuechang committed suicide, one of the heads of the scam group in northern Myanmar committed suicide, and the news of the three children arrested and handed over to the Chinese public security returned to China, netizens clapped their hands and applauded.
Jason Tower, Director of Myanmar Research Director of the Washington Think Tank American Institute of Peace (USIP), said more straightforwardly when receiving a free Asian radio, the Three Brothers can quickly capture northern Burma, andBehind China support.
Talver said that Beijing has been dissatisfied with Myanmar's military and political power in the past six months. The military and political power not only has not reached an economic agreement with China, but also has no effective response on cracking down on fraud and population sales. ChinaPeople are often victims of these multinational crimes, so China will acquiesce in military operations of the Three Brothers Alliance.
Reports from related western media and scholars' analysis, it is difficult to have conclusive evidence demonstration, and Chinese officials have a consistent public position on the situation in northern Myanmar, to persuade and talk, suspend fires, and solve differences through dialogue negotiations., Avoid the upgrade of the situation.
Myanmar media: Anti -China demonstration showed that the military government was dissatisfied with Beijing
China did not play a role in restraining the Myanmar folk armed organization.Relationship.
The Myanmar media reported on Monday (20th) that the nationalist supported by the Myanmar regime on Sunday (19th) in the Yangon City Hall and the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar demonstrated their premiums.Protesting the Chinese government's support for national armed organizations to hit the Myanmar government forces in the Bangbang, accusing "China intervene in Myanmar's internal affairs."
Demonstrate also said that Beijing's selling weapons to national armed organizations have pointed out that China purchases rare earths with Kachin Independence Army, one of the unbelievable ultra -low prices, to buy rare earths.
It is reported that the protests on Sunday are extremely unusual, because this is the first time that a demonstrator publicly criticized China in the protests approved by the Myanmar military government, and the assembly was approved by the military government, showing that it showed that it was approved by the military government and showed that it showed that it was approved by the military government and showed that it showed that it was approved by the military government and showed that it showed that it was approved by the military government.The military government is very dissatisfied with China because China has not interfered with the military operations of the Three Brothers Alliance.The Burmese media agency of the pro -military government also pointed to Beijing, which was raid by the military government, accusing Beijing of supporting the three brothers.
Analysis: stable or manipulation?Beijing faces strategic choices
Analysts said that for Beijing, this crisis highlights its key choices for Myanmar's strategy.
The Voice of the United States reported that Miemie Winn Byrd, a Burmese American analyst at the Asia -Pacific Security Research Center in Hawaii, said that China must now determine that it is prioritized to regional stability.Still have influence on the region.
Wen En said that maintaining the stability of the region is in line with China's interests, including the stability of the China -Myanmar border, and China's investment in Myanmar to remain stable.On the other hand, Beijing also hopes that there is a person in charge of its "manipulation". The military government can allow China to obtain more benefits than the cultural government governance, but the current conflict highlights the contradiction between China wants both.
Wen En said: "You can manipulate bad governance, but then you have no stability. All investment you invest in the area will face risks."
Wen EnIt is also believed that Beijing does not have such great restraints on the Myanmar ethnic minority armed organizations. Instead, the Three Brothers Alliance cleverly uses Beijing to consider the security benefits of regional criminal gangs to launch a raid against the government forces.
After the military conflict of northern Myanmar, Wang Xiaohong, the Minister of Public Security, visited Myanmar, and met with Min Anglai, chairman of the Myanmar National Management Commission. The two sides said that they would strengthen cooperation and crack down on telecommunications frauds and online gambling.
Regarding the Chinese government sent senior officials to visit Myanmar and maintain close contact with the military government, Wen En believes that this actually shows that Beijing has gradually lost confidence in the ability of Myanmar's military and political power to control and manage the country.Because of various signs, the military government did not firmly grasp Myanmar.
She analyzed that because of corruption and casualties, the Burmese military is currently in the weakest period.Overwhelming effect.
The Voice of the United States reports that the wisdom in ThailandThe "Myanmar Strategy and Policy Research Institute" issued a report on November 12 that China ’s total investment in the development of China has invested about 17 billion US dollars, and it has now fallen into the control of the Kashi Army, accounting for about US $ 35 billion in the China -Myanmar Economic CorridorThe total investment of the total investment, "Although China is dissatisfied with the power of northern Myanmar, it is willing to accommodate the short -term turbulence in the trigger army to fight power."
Will Beijing intervene in Myanmar's civil strife?
The think tank is judged that China should be able to endure the internal military conflict of Myanmar for three months. Unless the war was extended to the capital, the capital or some pro -Western factions began to play the leading role, even the US and Russian foreign forcesIf you want to intervene, you will let China shot to terminate the internal military conflict of Myanmar early.
Sing Tao Daily's comment article analyzed that China's diplomatic principles do not interfere with other domestic politics.Although China is dissatisfied with the five major families of the Myanmar military government for a long time, it has caused the jealous region to become an international electrical scam base.strategy.
China CCTV News Client reported on Tuesday (21st) that the relevant local law enforcement departments in northern Myanmar were transferred to China for 30,000 suspects of telecommunications network fraud.There are 63 backbones.
In addition, the Kashi Ming family also encountered a disaster.Sing Tao Daily's article believes that this is a gift from the Myanmar military government to China, and responding to China ’s explanation of China’ s hope that the two countries will strengthen cooperation and crack down on telecommunications fraud.
China -Myanmar relations can not escape the calculations and considerations of both parties in terms of politics and economy.Myanmar is the fulcrum in the China Belt and Road Initiative, an important part of the Bange, China, India -Myanmar Economic Corridor, and an important base for China to restrain India in the Indian Ocean.If China can open up a channel near the Indian Ocean in Myanmar, Chinese products or Middle East oil can bypass the Malacca Strait Channel and ship directly to the Middle East and Europe or China.
China is the long -term major trading partners and sources of foreign investment in Myanmar. Because of geographical factors, Burmese must maintain economic and trade cooperation with China in both the election government and the military government.Economic influence.Because of its strategic considerations, it is also necessary to use the window of Myanmar to strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries and break through the restrictions of strategic resources.
Clear electricity scams have triggered Myanmar civil strife, which is not conducive to the long -term development of China -Myanmar relations.Under the leading principles of "persuasion and talk", China may play a greater mediation role between the military government and the allies, promote the stability of the situation in Myanmar, and finally focus on maintaining China's own geopolitics and economic interests.Essence
