The weak economic data of the second consecutive month promoted the forecast of China's economic growth in 2023 by international investment banks such as JP Morgan Chase.This wave highlights that if China does not take more practical policies and measures, I am afraid that it will not be able to achieve the goal of about 5%of the economic growth this year.
Bloomberg reported that Morgan Chase predicted the growth rate of China's GDP (GDP) in 2023 to 4.8%.In early May, the bank also predicted that the Chinese economy would increase by 6.4%, which was one of the most optimistic institutions.
Zhu Haibin and other JP Morgan Chase economists are currently expected to grow 4.2%next year.According to the data compiled by Bloomberg, if it is expected, it will be the first three consecutive years since the Mao Zedong era.
Barclays reduced China's GDP growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 4.5%, while maintaining 2024 growth expected to be lower than the consensus 4%.
The reasons for the lowering of Barclays economists such as Chang Jian are: consumption, real estate, export and credit data are generally disappointing, and lack of effective and effective financial and consumer stimulus measures.
The July data released by China's official Tuesday (August 15) shows that consumption expenditure, industrial added value and growth rate of investment activities have declined across the board.Prior to this, the same disappointing economic data in June has prompted many banks to reduce the annual economic forecast last month.
Ruisui Financial Group is one of them.This large Japanese bank has reduced China's annual GDP growth forecast from 5.5%to 5%.The bank's senior Chinese economist Selina Zhou (translated, Serena Zhou) mentioned that the continuous weakness of the real estate market brought adverse factors.
JP Morgan also emphasized the dilemma of China's real estate industry.Economist at the bank said, "The prospect of the real estate market has deteriorated, especially the land purchase volume and the construction of new houses have declined significantly, which will often increase the drag on the economy."
But not all institutions are down to be predicted.Standard Chartered Bank said that China's economic growth forecast for the whole year remains 5.4%.
Ding Shuang and other Standard Chartered economists wrote in a report, "Although the start in the third quarter is not good, we still think that China can achieve about 5%of GDP growth goals."They also expect that China's epidemic prevention will boost the service industry.
Although some institutions have maintained an estimated estimation, they mention that the outlook may be adjusted. For example, Xing Ziqiang, chief Chinese economist of Morgan Stanley, said that if the policy of loose policies is slow, 5%of China's economic growth in ChinaThe goal may not be achieved.
