China's official Tuesday (August 15) released various macroeconomic data in July. A series of data weaker than expected data exacerbated the pessimistic emotions shrouded in the Chinese economy, but the most interesting thing is that the data of the youth unemployment rate is suspended updated.It's right.

As soon as the news came out, it immediately became the news title of major media.In Chinese social media, netizens were uproar, and almost questioned the official "covering the bell".Many Weibo users commented in related news, "I have no confidence in the editor now." "Is this scared by unemployment data" "Cover your ears and rush forward";"I can find a new statistical method to reduce the unemployment rate."

China has announced the unemployment rate of 16 to 26 years since 2018, mainly for employment in the age of urban areas.Since the beginning of this year, China's economic growth has continued to weaken. This is an important indicator of observing China's economic trend, employment market situation, and youth status, which has always received high attention.

Official data shows that the youth unemployment rate has risen monthly in the first six months of this year. From April, it exceeded 19.9 % in July last year.Essence

This year, Chinese college graduates have reached 11.58 million. Many economic analysts predict that after the graduation season is coming, the youth unemployment rate is likely to continue to rise.

China National Bureau of Statistics Fu Linghui explained at a press conference on Tuesday that the suspension of urban survey unemployment rates such as young people such as young people, mainly because of the continuous development and changes in the economy and society.Improved, labor survey statistics also need to be further improved and optimized. "

At the sensitive time point of China's continuous downturn in China's economy, it suddenly announced that it has suspended the release of a highly noticed data and decided to adjust the past statistical method. It is difficult to cause various conjectures no matter what the starting point is.

The most direct impact of

The stopping of the youth unemployment rate data is that there is another key data in the outside world to evaluate the Chinese economic situation.This is also planted in many people's hearts: Is the unemployment of youths bad enough to say that it is difficult to say?Do officials use statistical technical operations to beautify data to stabilize public confidence?

The direct reason for these questions is that the employment situation of young people in China is indeed not optimistic. Even if there is no official data, it is not difficult to feel.

In this "most difficult graduation season", there are constant reports and news on Chinese media and social platforms that employment of college graduates is difficult to get employment, and college employment data is faked.Some graduates were "urged employment" and had to sign an employment contract with leather bag companies, just to obtain a graduation certificate; some college class teachers faced the employment tasks assigned by the school. Mingli secretly asked students to provide false information in the employment survey.

At the beginning of August, the official website of the Ministry of Education of China announced that multiple working groups have been sent to various provinces to conduct special inspections to strictly investigate employment data to falsify.The Ministry of Education also announced the reporting telephones and mailboxes in various places, promising "reporting one and investigating one."From the perspective of the official "counterfeiting" employment data, the seriousness of the problem of counterfeiting is evident.

This wave of youth unemployment is because the Chinese economy lacks vitality as a whole after the epidemic.On the other hand, after the three -year epidemic, a group of young people who continued their studies in the past few years to continue their studies in the society and exacerbated the situation of more porridge in the employment market.

Some scholars believe that the official unemployment rate released by the official earlier has been underestimated.Zhang Dandan, an associate professor of economics at the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, issued a text in Caixin last month that when the employment market is not good, a large number of labor force will choose to wait, wait, or temporarily withdraw from the labor market.Unemployment groups are usually ignored by the unemployment rate statistics.

According to the statistics obtained by this scholar, there are 96 million population aged 16 to 24 in China in March this year, of which non -labor accounts for two -thirds, reaching 64 million, including 48 million school students, and as well as16 million non -school students.If the "full -time children" who are lying and old are calculated as unemployment, the unemployment rate can reach up to 46.5 %.

Although this is just a hypothetical data, and unemployed young people from 16 to 24, they only account for a small ratio of the overall unemployed population, but the dilemma of this group, especially among them, has received a large number of higher education.Facing the employment of employment, the youth had to ring the alarm.

The press conference of the Statistics Bureau did not disclose that the data of the youth unemployment rate will be stopped, and it is not explained how to adjust the statistical method, but some hints are made, such as further studying the students who are looking for a job before graduation.Incorporate statistics from labor investigation.

After the statistical method changes, it may be as official saying "better reflect employment."However, after this round of technical operations, whether the unemployment rate rises or decreases, it is no longer the point. It is also worthy of concern that the official transparency and credibility have been questioned again.In addition, when this group of young people who have experienced the full baptism of the epidemic officially stepped out of the school gate, was it a vitality and opportunity to welcome them and to make them feel hope and confidence.