The latest official data released by officials shows that the key economic indicators in China have weakened in May. Among them, the highly concerned youth unemployment rate has risen to 20.8 %, which is a new high since the record, showing that the world's second largest economy has recovered.Fine.
On the same day on a series of pessimistic data, the People's Bank of China lowered another key interest rate.This is the bank's use of monetary tools after the accident cut this Tuesday, showing that the Beijing's positive easing policy injects the downturn.
Economic analysts generally believe that China's weak economy, and the central bank has continuously lowered interest rates, indicating that there will be more counter -cyclical regulatory measures to promote the return of China's economy back.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China released various economic data on May (June 15).Among them, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, which was the same as April; however, the unemployment rate of labor survey from 16 to 24 years old rose to 20.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from April, and a record high since it was a record.
A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui revealed that in May, about 6 million people from the age of 16 to 24 are still looking for a job.
The number of Chinese college graduates this year will reach a new high, and it is expected to reach 11.58 million.As the graduation season comes, the unemployment rate may rise further.
The latest data released on Thursday also shows that the key indicator of consumer confidence in social consumer goods retail in May in May by 12.7%, a 5.7 percentage point from April;%Increase.
In addition, the role of investment in the economy has continued to slow down. From January to May, national fixed asset investment increased by 4%year -on -year, lower than 4.7%from January to April, the lowest level since 2021.From the perspective of large categories, the growth rate of real estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment has continued to slow down.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out in the report of May Economic Data that the rebound of the service industry driven by the compensation demand is approaching the end, the export growth rate has declined, the employment pressure rises, the real estate market cools down, infrastructure investment in infrastructure markets, infrastructure investmentFactors such as fatigue and insufficient confidence in private enterprises have caused the various indicators in May to weaken in May.
For the weak economic data in May, Fu Linghui said that China's economic operation is generally stable, but still facing some pressure and difficulties, and employment pressure and structural problems still exist.
He predicts that under the low base effect last year this year, the economic growth rate will be significantly faster than the first quarter. By the third and fourth quarters, the economic operation will return to the level of normal growth.support.
The People's Bank of China has reduced another key interest rate
On the same day of the macroeconomic data in May, the People's Bank of China was also expected to reduce the interest rate (MLF) interest rate in the mid -term borrowing convenience (MLF) on Thursday, which was the first time since August last year.
According to the announcement of the People's Bank of China, a one -year MLF operation of RMB 237 billion (about 44.7 billion yuan) was launched on Thursday, and interest rates were reduced from 2.75%to 2.65%.
MLF is a tool for providing low -interest loans to commercial banks to commercial banks. The MLF interest rate is closely linked to the loan interest rate of commercial banks for households and enterprises.
The People's Bank of China has reduced the seven -day reverse repurchase operating interest rate on Tuesday from 2%to 1.9%before. This is the first time that the official has reduced the short -term loan interest rate since August last year;Loan interest rate provided by commercial bank emergency loan mechanism.
Xie Dongming, director of the research director of the Greater China of Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the next loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) was reduced "foreseeable"."" ".
However, Xie Dongming believes that the space for boosting China's economy through monetary policy is not very large. "Interest rate cuts are just a manifestation of an attitude", because the Chinese economy is mainly facing domestic demand problems.a lot of".
He pointed out that the impact of the slowdown in real estate on China's economy is becoming more and more obvious, and the probability of further introducing a package of support for the real estate market is increasing.
