The latest financial data of the People's Bank of China announced in January this year, and the RMB deposit increased by 6.87 trillion yuan in the month (RMB, the same below, about 1.34 trillion yuan).Among them, resident deposits increased by 6.2 trillion yuan, a record high in history, an increase of 790 billion yuan year -on -year.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Bank of China in the fourth quarter of 2022 Urban Reserve Questionnaire Survey report showed that residents' savings were enthusiastic, and 61.8%of residents who tended to "more savings" in the fourth quarter of last year.To have the highest value since statistics.
The chief economist of CITIC Securities explicitly analyzed that residents' excess savings mainly originated from three aspects. One is that the economic environment is downturn and the dispersion point epidemic is frequent.Second, after the spread of real estate risks, residents are willing to buy a house. The relevant funds return to the bank table. Third, the redemption tide of bank wealth management at the end of 2022 leads to a large number of low -risk preferences.
The Research Report of the Yangtze River Securities believes that from the perspective of traffic, the excess savings based on residents' disposable income and consumer expenditure are calculated. The results show that the cumulative scale from 2020 to 2022 is 1.1 trillion yuan, which is caused by the epidemic situation.Preventive savings may be concentrated in 2020.
Wang Tao, director of economic research and chief Chinese economist at UBS, predicts that excess savings released in 2023 or 500 billion to 600 billion yuan.The release speed of over -savings this year depends on the speed of confidence and economic restoration.If the government has certain subsidies, the economic restoration is fast and the growth rate is high, the confidence of ordinary people will return to faster, and the excess savings will release a part faster, and the savings rate will decrease significantly this year.
Li Chao, the chief economist of Zhejiang Business Securities, believes that in 2023, residents' deposits and moving will be diverted to the physical department and capital market. Among them, some "passive savings" will gradually be released with the improvement of the epidemic situation.It is reflected in the recovery of residents' consumption and house purchase activities.
As for whether the current accumulated residents' excess savings can return to bank wealth management, it is clearly believed that whether the return of the historical experience and overseas conditions of the general wealth management market in China depends on many factors. For example, savings may flow to consumption consumption.With the scale of real estate investment, bank wealth management benchmarking other types of products for different risk preferences of residents' savings, and whether the bank wealth management and bond market have the opportunity to grow.
Obviously: "Combined with the above factors, we expect that the scale of bank wealth management may maintain a low -level shock in the first half of 2023, and in the second half of the year with the opportunity to strengthen the rhythm and the debt market for the bond of the bond of the bond.Attacking, the bank wealth management market may usher in repair in the second half of 2023. The overall scale is expected to recover to the level of mid -2022. "
