(Beijing Bloomberg) The National Bureau of Statistics of China will announce the total population born in 2022 next week. Experts predict that this report may show that the Chinese population has begun to shrink for decades, and it will have a long -term impact on the economy.Essence
He Yafu, an independent population statistics from China, predicts that the total population born in China in 2022 is 10 million, which is less than 10.6 million in 2021, which is the lowest level since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949; the number of deaths may be higher than 2021 in 202110.1 million, which led to a population atrophy for the first time.
Analysis: The national pension system is more difficult to support the national pension system of the labor population
The United Nations originally predicted in 2019 that the Chinese population will reach its peak in 2031, and then declines, but it has revised its peak estimation last year. It is expected that the total population will reach the peak until early 2022.
Due to the high restrictions and parenting costs brought by the city, the number of baby births during the crown disease has declined.Part of the cause of death is also caused by the spread of the crown disease.
Comprehensive United Nations and Bloomberg Economic Research predict that China's population in 2050 will decrease to 110 million, and the labor population will decrease by about 260 million to 650 million compared with the total of 2020.
Analysts say that the peak of population is faster than previous estimates, which means that the labor market will shrink, long -term demand for housing will decline, and support the national pension system will become more difficult.They expect that China's economic growth may be curbed and it is difficult to surpass the US economy.
In order to overcome the problem of economic atrophy, Wang Tao, director of economic research and chief Chinese economist in Asia, suggested that China can follow Japan, Taiwan and other countries and regions to increase retirement age to maintain the total number of labor.She said that labor may be transferred from areas with low productivity or rural areas to other regions, and the total non -agricultural labor supply may still rise.
