Jingqiang Xinyun
On the first working day of the New Year, the scene of the early peak car was reproduced on the second ring road in Beijing. This super city with a population of more than 22 million is slowly getting out of the peak of the epidemic.
In the past month, Beijing has been the first to be a brunt after a large -scale relaxation of epidemic prevention measures, and has experienced the baptism of Omikon's epidemic tsunami.Almost all colleagues, friends, and neighbors around them were infected from mid -December to late. The epidemic swept the city far beyond imagination.
How many people have been infected with crown disease so far?The official has not announced data, but Chinese epidemiological expert Zeng Guangnian judged on a forum that Beijing's infection rate may have exceeded 80 %, and may even be higher.
As for how many people in Beijing died in the epidemic storm in December, it is difficult to estimate.Judging from media reports and the overload of the Beijing funeral home and the cremation field circulating, the life that this epidemic is far more than officially announced and the previous predictions of many people.
China has been loosened to epidemic prevention measures since November, and the epidemic has spread rapidly in large cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing.Due to the large number of infections, the official has stopped publishing data from asymptomatic infection since mid -December, and the daily epidemic information has also been stopped in late December.
How many people in various places are infected in this epidemic and how many people have died of infection. The outside world can only try to put together a complete picture through limited fragmented information.
Some information comes to some parts of China or online survey.For example, Qingdao speculated on December 23 that the number of new infections every day from 490,000 to 530,000 local people.The Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention has also recently disclosed that local infection has entered the peak of infection, and recently added more than 1 million new infections daily.一些地方则通过网络问卷等形式，公布地方上的感染情况，例如海南的调查显示，全省预计感染率在12月30日已达到50％；四川省在12月26日做的调查显示，参与The infection rate of investigators reached 63 %.
Another group of information about China's epidemic trends, from some data analysis agencies, the most concerned about the estimation of British Health Data Analysis Company Airfinity.This agency estimated on Thursday (December 29) that about 9,000 people may die in crown disease every day in China, and the number of infections daily is about 1.8 million.
Airfinity also judged that a large number of people's flow during the Spring Festival will accelerate the spread of the epidemic. On January 13, the first peak value will be reached, and the number of new infections will reach 3.7 million daily.In addition, the peak of China's infection death will come on January 23, and the number of deaths in a single day may reach 25,000; if it is calculated from December 1 last year, the cumulative death case will reach 580,000.
China will no longer do large -scale nucleic acid testing, nor does it establish a platform for antigen self -test reporting. In addition, the official definition of officials in the number of crown disease deaths, China’s infection and mortality rate in this round of epidemic has already beenBecome a mystery.
In addition to the surveys and estimates mentioned above, as well as the personal experience of the Chinese people, the news of various hospitals in social media, and the overwhelming news of the funeral home, it is difficult for the outside world to grasp the overall situation of the Chinese epidemic.
The New York Times recently described in a report that it is necessary to judge the scale and severity of China's epidemic situation, just like "a large scientific guessing game".
Because of the lack of transparent and reliable epidemic data, some countries have adopted the simplest approach after learning that China is about to open the border: "one -size -fits -all" to closely restrict the epidemic prevention of Chinese passengers.Since late December, the United States, Japan, Italy, etc. have successively demanded passengers from China to provide negative proof of nucleic acid negatives before boarding, and receive coronary detection during entering the country.Morocco, which has the strictest prevention and control measures, stipulates that from Tuesday (January 3), all passengers from China, regardless of their nationality, must not enter Morocco.
The cautious reasons for these countries.Without transparent and reliable data, it is difficult for the outside world to effectively evaluate the development of the Chinese epidemic.How fast is the spread of the epidemic, is it out of control?What is the severe rate and what are the characteristics of severe patients?What are the variant viruses that spread in the wide range, and is they becoming more fatal in China?Is there a more dangerous mutant strain appeared and passed to other countries?
Sunday (January 8), China will be loosened for three years of border epidemic prevention measures.
China opened the country's gate, and it was encouraged to connect with the world in the post -epidemic era.However, the Chinese epidemic comes like an avalanche as an avalanche. How to face China, which coexist with the virus, and face a 1.4 billion population country that spreads rapidly, will be a problem that countries around the world will welcome.In the face of Chinese visitors who may enter a large number of entry, all countries must protect their nationals on the one hand and explain to domestic public opinion. On the other hand, China does need to solve the mystery of the epidemic data and let the outside world make the development trajectory of the Chinese epidemic situation.More scientific assessments and corresponding plans, after all, China's epidemic will affect the global public health and economic prospects.
The coexistence of China and the world after the epidemic will be a process of re -running -in. I hope that in this process, all parties can understand and cooperate from the perspective of science and public health.It became a political issue again a year ago.
