From the perspective of sub -item data, as the epidemic prevention and control measures tighten and the confirmed cases have increased, the service industry production and demand have contracted for the third consecutive month in November.EssenceOn the contrary, the new export order index rose to the expansion range that month, the second expansion in 2022.
(Beijing Comprehensive News) China ’s Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (PMI) in China has fallen to 46.7, which is lower than the critical point for the third consecutive month.The analysis believes that the epidemic prevention and control measures tighten the disturbance of the service industry is significantly greater than the manufacturing industry. The current market's requirements for promoting employment and stable domestic demand policies are particularly urgent.
According to data released by Caixin Media and S & P Global (December 5), the PMI of China's service industry in November was 46.7, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from October.New low since the month.
Caixin's November manufacturing PMI announced last week, up 0.2 percentage points to 49.4, which continued the contraction situation since August; it was mainly affected by the weakened service industry.It also dropped to the lowest in June.
The PMI trend of Caixin Manufacturing Industry is not consistent with the manufacturing industry of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, while the service industry PMI and integrated PMI are the same as the Statistics Bureau.
The official PMI of November manufacturing has fallen by 1.2 percentage points to 48.0, and the service industry PMI decreases by 1.9 percentage points to 45.1, driving the comprehensive PMI weaker 1.9 percentage points to 47.1, showing that production and operation activities have accelerated shrinkage.
The impact of prevention and control measures is greater than the manufacturing industry
From the perspective of sub -item data, with the tightening of the epidemic prevention and control measures and the increase in confirmed cases, the service industry's production and demand in November have contracted for the third consecutive month, and the decrease is the largest after the peak of the previous epidemic.On the contrary, the new export order index rose to the expansion range that month, the second expansion in 2022.
Caixin.com reported that the interviewed enterprises said that the reason for the improvement of exports is that the market conditions are relatively improved and the restrictions on international travel restrictions are relaxed, but the global weak economy continues to suppress business growth.
The analysis believes that the tightening of China's epidemic prevention and control measures, the disturbance of the service industry is significantly greater than the manufacturing industry.
According to the company's investigation, the company's reported and new business volume has declined in nearly six months; the company's outlook for the next 12 months has fallen to eight months, and the tide of layoffs continues.The contractual shrinkage rate reached a new high since the survey in November 2005, indicating that the labor market is further tense.
Wang Yan, a senior economist of Caixin Think Tank, pointed out that China is in the third wave of epidemic. Although the restrictions on both ends of the supply and demand are weaker than the first two waves of epidemic, the deterioration of the employment market is more prominent.
Wang Yan also said that under the pressure of shrinking, supply impact, and expected weakness, the employment index has been at a low position for a long time. Employment downturn and triple pressure have formed negative feedback. The market's requirements for promoting employment and stable domestic demand policies are particularly urgent.
