China's epidemic prevention and control measures to tighten the disturbance of the service industry is significantly greater than the manufacturing industry. In November, the service industry's prosperity further declined in the contraction range.
According to Caixin.com on Monday (December 5), the latest data was announced, and November Caixin China General Service Industry Business Business Index (PMI) recorded 46.7, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from October, For three consecutive months lower than the critical point, it is a new low in June.
The previously announced November Caixin China's manufacturing PMI rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.4, which continued the contraction situation since August; it was mainly affected by the weakened service industry, and the comprehensive PMI of Caixin China declined in November.1.3 percentage points to 47.0, which also dropped to the lowest in June.
The PMI trend of the Chinese manufacturing industry is not consistent with the PMI of the China Statistics Bureau's manufacturing industry, while the service industry PMI and integrated PMI are the same as the Statistics Bureau.
Previously, the November manufacturing PMI declined by the National Bureau of Statistics of China fell 1.2 percentage points to 48.0, and the service industry PMI decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 45.1, driving the comprehensive PMI weaker 1.9 percentThe activity accelerates contraction.
From the perspective of sub -item data, with the tightening of the epidemic prevention and control measures and the increase in confirmed cases, China's service industry production and demand in November have contracted for the third consecutive month.The largest.On the contrary, the new export order index rose to the expansion range that month, which was the second expansion in 2022.The interviewed enterprises said that the reason for the improvement of exports is that the market conditions are relatively improved and the restrictions on international travel restrictions are relaxed, but the global economic weakness continues to suppress business growth.
The employment situation of China's service industry has been briefly improved in October, and it has shrunk again in November. The employment index fell to the lowest since there was this score statistical data in November 2005.The survey shows that the epidemic prevention and control measures have caused restrictions on travel in some areas, and the personnel cannot attend the job. At the same time, the decline in business needs of enterprises also actively tighten the use of labor.In November, the backlog business volume index also rose to the highest expansion range to the highest in June.
Driven by rising costs such as raw materials, transportation, and labor, the cost of China's service industry is still increasing, and the price index in November has slightly dropped in the expansion range;Insufficient, the enterprise's pricing capacity is limited, and the service industry's factory price index also falls, which is slightly higher than the critical point.
Market confidence has been frustrated. The expected index of the service industry in China in November has fallen to the lowest in nearly eight months, and it continues to be lower than long -term average.The investigated company believes that the output will rise with the improvement of the epidemic, and the operation will return to normal, but the impact of epidemic and related epidemic prevention measures on production capacity and demand will still have greater uncertainty, bringing certain concerns.
Wang Yan, a senior economist of Caixin Think Tank, said that in the third wave of epidemic in the early 2020 and the first half of 2022, China has continued to adversely affect the economy.At present, the limitation of the third wave of epidemic on both ends of the supply and demand is weaker than the first two waves of epidemic, but the deterioration of the employment market is more prominent.Since October, the epidemic has spread in many provinces and cities. How to balance epidemic prevention and control and economic development has once again become a core issue.A few days ago, the central government made important deployment and clear requirements for further optimization of measures to prevent and control work, and how to implement it into the top priority.
He said that under the pressure of shrinking, impacting, and weakening, the employment index has been at a low position for a long time. Employment downturn and triple pressures form negative feedback. The market's requirements for promoting employment and stable domestic demand policies are particularly urgent.At the policy level, the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy should be strengthened, focusing on expanding domestic demand, and increasing the income level of low -income groups.
