As the Chinese government began to relax the control measures in many cities, economists have advanced China's exit dynamic clearing zero policy in advance.Expectation.Not According to Bloomberg, of the 16 economists surveyed from Bloomberg from November 30th to December 2nd, nine people believed that China would re -open the speed faster than their expectations, four of whichIt is considered to be in the second quarter of next year, and the other three think it will be earlier.Not Due to strict epidemic prevention measures failing to control the current high -crown disease epidemic, and affect economic development, the Chinese government has accelerated the pace of turning to re -open, including the capital Beijing that Beijing has allowed some low -risk patients to have low -risk patients.Home isolation without having to transfer to a centralized isolation point.Not Zhou Xue, a senior Chinese economist of Ruisui Securities, analyzed: "We believe that China has withdrawn from 20 measures to withdraw from the dynamic clearing policy, and they are trying to make the infection curve level." China goes up. "China goes up.Twenty measures announced in a month seek the accuracy of strengthening the prevention and control of the epidemic and reduce its impact on economic activities.Not The signs of acceleration of the steps of restarting, the Chinese stock market rose (December 5) on Monday (December 5), and the RMB has also strengthened.Not UBS economist Wang Tao and others said in the report on Monday: "The major adjustment of the immune prevention policy may be earlier than the baseline expectations after March next year."
Of the 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, seven are expected to be reopened in the second quarter of next year, and four are expected to be in the first quarter.Economists have not been required to define a comprehensive re -opening of what it means.Not However, some economists believe that China's opening process will be rugged. Facing the problems of insufficient medical resources and the low vaccination rate of the elderly, the government may need to try it repeatedly.Not Wu Zhuoyin, a senior economist of French Foreign Trade Bank, analyzed: "China is reopening, but it will not be smooth sailing. Do not expect that China will cancel all epidemic prevention measures at once." NotSPAN> This makes the prospects of economic growth uncertain.Of the 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, five said that they would reduce the fourth quarter and the annual economic growth forecast in the fourth quarter and 2022.The estimated median value was reduced from 3.9%and 3.3%in November to 3.8%and 3.2%, respectively.Not "What is more important to the prospects is to restrict the prevention and control of China's relaxation of the epidemic and return the economic life to normal reality."He believes that the constraints in this include the poor vaccine used, and they are unwilling to use the MRNA vaccine produced abroad, the hesitation of the elderly in vaccination, and the ability to respond to the surge in public health systems.Not On the other hand, Goldman Sachs chief Chinese economist Shan Hui and colleagues wrote in a report on Sunday (December 4) that although some cities in China relax the epidemic prevention regulations, this cannot be interpreted by interpretationChina is abandoning the zero -epidemic prevention policy, "we regard it as a preparation for the Chinese government to withdraw (clear zero), and try to reduce the clear evidence of the minimum of the epidemic prevention economy and social costs." NotIt is written that the experience of Hong Kong and Taiwan shows that new cases will surge after re -opening and personnel movement will decline sharply.The above report says that the basic scenario of Goldman Sachs shows that China's zero -epidemic zero policy will continue until April.
