Early
Hunsheng Paper
"Double Eleven" has been waiting for the market for the third quarter of the two e -commerce giants to announce the annual shopping giants.
Alibaba's performance released on Thursday (November 17) showed that the Group's net loss was 20.6 billion yuan (RMB, about S $ 3.97 billion) from July to September this year, which was lower than market expectations.One day later, the competitors JD.com released a financial report showing that the group's net profit in the third quarter turned to profit, and net income reached 11.4 %.
However, whether it is Ali, who is not as expected as performance, or better than the expected JD, the stock price has fallen straight this week, and it did not recover part of the land until Wednesday.The reason is that the tightening of epidemic prevention measures has led to the decline in market confidence in consumer stocks.
Before the "Double Eleven" this year, Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, predicts that due to the weak consumer demand, the income growth of e -commerce companies such as Ali and JD.com has weaker revenue in the second half of the year, and it is likely to record zero growth in the fourth quarter.
During the "Double Eleven" period, not only did the major e -commerce platforms not hold a grand party as in previous years, but even for the first time, it did not announce the total commodity transaction (GMV) and growth data for the first time.From the perspective of the courier package, the data released by the State Post Office on November 12 showed that the "Double Eleven" handled 552 million courier parcels on the day, a decrease of 21 % from 696 million pieces in the same period last year.
The bleak performance of online retail this year is not only expected, but it is also expected.The consumer demand survey report released by the Nandu polls shows that only 64.13 % of the "Double Eleven" shopping plans this year, below 83.04 % in 2021 and 85.35 % in 2020.
On the other hand, the main economic indicators released in October released last week showed that the total retail sales of consumer goods in the month fell by 0.5 % year -on -year, which was not only lower than the analyst's expected increase of 0.7 %, but also for the first time in five months.This means that the consumer market that has finally gone out of the shadow of the city in the first half of the year may enter the cold winter again.
Economists investigated by the Wall Street Journal predict that the total number of communities this year will only increase by 1 %.In contrast, in the five years before the outbreak, the average annual increase in this data was 7 % to 8 %; even in the past two years, the average annual growth rate of the zero zero reached 3.9 %.
As one of the "three carriages" that drives economic growth, consumption has contributed to 62 % of China's GDP (GDP) in the first three quarters of last year, which plays a decisive role in promoting economic recovery.However, in the first three quarters of this year, the contribution rate of consumption to GDP dropped sharply to 41 %, and the proportion of net exports rose from 20 % to 32 %.
Even the export industry that continues to be continued after the epidemic has shrunk by global demand. In October this year, it fell 0.3 %, and it fell for the first time in more than two years.In the context of limited investment driving effects and expected export contributions, the burden of "stable economy" must be carried by consumption.
The China Macroeconomic Forum, hosted by Renmin University of China and China Integrity International, issued a report on Saturday that the Chinese consumer market throughout the year has presented a "type V" repair, but the overall growth rate is still at a historical low.This is not only affected by short -term factors such as rising food prices, but also long -term factors such as the decline in income growth rate of residents and weakening expectations.The report believes that improving the precision of the epidemic prevention and control and unblocking the economic cycle is the top priority of boosting consumption, but the basis of income and expected improvement.
The biggest good news of the "Double Eleven" on the day is that China officially released 20 measures to further optimize the prevention and control of the epidemic, and greatly relax the restrictions on epidemic prevention.As the optimistic of new regulations will reduce the impact of the economy on the economy, the stock market has risen, and consumer stocks such as catering tourism have risen rapidly.
Alibaba CEO Zhang Yong welcomed new measures at the call meeting with analysts last week and looked forward to continuing the situation.Jingdong CEO Xu Lei also optimistic at the financial report meeting that "the worst moment has basically passed", and there will be "constant positive factors and information" in the future.
However, in the past week, as the Chinese epidemic has continued to heat up, the policy that has not long been relaxed has tightened again.Among several large cities, Guangzhou and Chongqing have fallen into large -scale closed control. Many districts in Beijing require people to work at home and prohibit their food.Even Shanghai, where the epidemic is more ease, announced new regulations on Tuesday, and prohibited personnel from entering Shanghai from entering the catering services, shopping malls and other places within five days after arriving in Shanghai.This adds a hindrance to the road of ups and downs of consumption recovery.
China's regulatory layer has introduced 16 heavy measures this month to boost the property market that has been trapped in the cold winter since the end of last year.However, the central bank also emphasized that insisting on not using real estate as a means of stimulating the economy, but to provide "more powerful and higher quality" support for the real economy.However, for more than a month left this year, the Bitan currency policy can more directly stimulate consumption, which is undoubtedly the degree of tightening of epidemic prevention measures.
From the total social zero of the "Double Eleven" battle to report again for the first time, the consumer market has repeatedly knocked on the alarm to the decision -making layer.When the property market is unsatisfactory, if the consumer market is in winter again, the distance between the Chinese economy and the "spring flowers" is further one step.
