According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Wednesday, the average price of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium cities across the country fell 0.37 % from September, a decrease from 0.28 % in September from the month of SeptemberFurther expansion.
The "Golden Nine Silver Ten" grand occasion of the Chinese property market is no longer. In October, the price of new houses hit the largest decline in more than seven years.According to the analysis, the deterioration of the performance of the property market in October was one of the guides that prompted the HKMA to introduce the guidance of "16" in the market. However, from the perspective of the continuous downward trend of the property market, the official policy should be increased in the next stage.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Wednesday (November 16), the average price of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium cities across the country fell 0.37 % from September in October, and the decline in September was further expanded from the month of September.According to Wind data, the new house in October fell the largest since February 2015. At that time, the price of new commercial housing fell 0.5 % month -on -month.
According to Bloomberg, the average price of second -hand housing in October slipped 0.47 % month -on -month, a decline in the largest since 2014.
The prices of new houses and second -hand housing in first -tier to third -tier cities have fallen
70 large and medium cities that are included in statistics, the sales price of new houses in 58 cities last month fell from the previous month.Non -diminished.
Whether it is first -tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, second -tier cities such as Tianjin and Nanjing, and third -tier cities such as Quanzhou and Wenzhou, the prices of new houses and second -hand houses have fallen.
Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Think Tank Center of the E -House Research Institute, pointed out that the current price of new houses has declined for 14 months month -on -month, and it has exceeded the 12 -month record of the real estate market in 2014, showing that the market improvement is weaker than expected.
From the historical trend, it takes a while similar to adjustment. The housing price index rebound or rotate in the short term still has pressure.
Statistics released a day before, China's real estate investment in October fell 16.1 % year -on -year, and the sales area of commercial housing dropped by 23.2 % year -on -year, a decrease of 7.1 percentage points from September; the sales of commercial housing decreased by 23.7 % year -on -year, a decrease from September from SeptemberExpand 9.5 percentage points.
In the past year, a series of "stabilized property markets" measures have not worked well, and the Central Bank of China and the CBRC issued 16 heavy measures last week to boost the weak property market from multiple levels such as real estate enterprises financing and insurance.EssenceOn Monday (November 14), the Central Bank, the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the Ministry of Housing and Construction issued a notice to guide commercial banks to issue guarantee funds for pre -sale supervision to high -quality housing companies to help such real estate companies relieve liquidity pressure.
This round of stimulus policy boosted that real estate stocks have risen sharply this week, and real estate companies such as Country Garden and Yajule have also announced their funding plans.However, after Wednesday's housing prices were released, the real estate sector fell immediately, showing that investor confidence fell.
Zhang Xiaoduan, deputy dean of the Dede Liangxing Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that "16 to save the market" has a significant role in improving the overall financing environment and alleviating the liquidity crisis of housing companies, and it is also good news for "insurance diplomatic relations".
However, in addition to the supply side, the stabilization of the property market also depends on the demand side, especially in the environment of the current macroeconomic expectations and the downturnal demand for residents.
Zhang Xiaoduan believes that, in addition to the recent favorable policies in housing loans and the recent "16 Finance Articles", first -tier cities are still relatively conservative and cautious in stimulating the demand for the property market.For the rapid rebound and the property market bubble that may be caused by the introduction of strong stimulus policies.
"Supply and demand and investment data this year shows that the current property market is still in a continuous downward stage, and it is more suitable for relaxation or withdrawal of restricted policies in the early stage.In terms of restrictions on hot cities, there is still room for power. "
UBS Group's latest report predicts that the downturn property market will lead to a loss of up to 1.5 trillion yuan in loans, bonds and other assets (RMB, about S $ 291 billion).
Yan Meizhi, director of the Greater China Financial Industry Research Department of UBS Investment Research, also wrote in the report that, in view of the strong profitability of the banking industry and high non -performing asset reserve, the above loss will be systematically digested. At present, it is expected that it is not expectedAny bank system crisis will occur.
