High -frequency data shows that China's infrastructure stimulus measures are booster economic activities, but it is not enough to offset the impact of the continuous downturn in the real estate market on the construction industry.
According to Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs Group calculated based on the official data released this week that China ’s expenditure in China in the fieldThe growth rate last year was almost zero.
Four Squares Technology LTD's analysis of the satellite images of highway construction projects in 13 provinces confirmed this expansion situation.They estimate that the area under construction in July increased by 6.3%year -on -year, reversing the trend earlier this year.
However, this is not enough to regain China's huge construction industry.The land area of the three major cities in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou decreased by 44%year -on -year.The total area of land newly built and under construction in these cities and regions decreased by 1%year -on -year.
Chinese construction activities are also clearly cool down. Data from Kobashisong Company show that the use of heavy equipment in July this year is less than the same period than the same period last year.Last month, the demand for industrial products also declined. Steel output fell to the lowest level since 2018, and cement output decreased by 7%year -on -year.
In view of Beijing's comprehensive plan to alleviate the pressure of real estate funds, the hope of the overall recovery of the construction industry seems to have little hope.The sales of excavators as a vane of construction activity fell by 25%in July.
China's local government has issued a record -scale special debt, which is mainly used for investment infrastructure. Beijing has also increased the credit line support infrastructure of policy banks.Official Media Securities Times published a comment article on Wednesday stating that nearly 20 % of the RMB loan balance in the infrastructure field will continue to provoke the beams of medium- and long -term loans of corporate sectors this year.
Xia Le, chief Asian economist in Spain's foreign banks, believes that infrastructure investment may be further accelerated and eventually achieved a 10%to 13%this year.In view of the fact that infrastructure investment accounts for about 15%of China's GDP (GDP), it may play a pulling role in actual GDP growth of 1.5 to 2 percentage points.
However, real estate investment may have a double -digit decline, which means that the overall contribution rate of investment (including production facility investment) to GDP may be lower than about 1.1%of last year.
