The global wave of inflation has greatly bypassed China, but the local price may still be unavoidable to this impact.
Bloomberg reported that according to CICC's analysts, the consumer price index of Chinese residents has risen rapidly in the past few months, and the increase will be more than 3%year -on -year.This will exceed the government's annual growth rate of about 3%, which will challenge the government that is already working hard to balance the vulnerable economic recovery.
The analyst of CICC Company wrote in the research report of Monday (August 8) that if the inflation rate exceeds the existing goals, the policy maker will face the choice between inflation and growthThe dilemma.The company believes that in the new macroeconomic paradigm of the global economy, properly improving the tolerance of inflation may become a normal state.
Compared with the cost of soaring in other places, China's consumer prices are relatively low. Under the strict clearing policy and sporadic epidemic, demand is still downturn.
But the prices have picked up in recent months, and in June increased by 2.5%year -on -year, the strongest increase in two years.China will announce the inflation data in July on Wednesday (10th). Based on the medium value of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the CPI is expected to rise to 2.9%.
One of the great driving forces of Chinese consumers' inflation is the rebound of pork prices, and pork is the key product in the CPI basket.
CICC analysts said that if inflation is higher than government goals, it will lead to one of the two situations of macroeconomic policies: low inflation and low growth, and moderate increase in inflation and growth.They wrote that the company believes that the latter is a better choice and should be conducive to the healthy development of economy and finance.
