The company said its guidance assumes Covid vaccine trends will be consistent with last fall, but noted that U.S. vaccination rates are still the "largest remaining variable to sales for the year."
"We believe that this season seems to be – and we have to be careful with December – but seems to be on track with last year. A little bit ahead of last year if you look at the weekly data," Bancel told CNBC.
Notably, Moderna said its Covid vaccine has won 45% of the U.S. market share so far this fall, up from the 36% market share it captured in 2022.
Bancel added that company expects the U.S. market for Covid shots to be at least 50 million doses this fall, which is consistent with last year and is "something we repeat again in 2024."
"Our assumption is everyone who has gotten their booster in 2023 will at least get their booster also in 2024 and beyond," Moderna CCO Arpa Garay said during the earnings call. Garay added that the company expects to see "some increase in the overall Covid market" as patients become more understanding of annual vaccine recommendations.
Moderna expects roughly $4 billion in sales in 2024, mostly in the second half of the year, mainly due to global Covid shot sales and the launch of its vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. Wall Street analysts had expected $6 billion next year.
Mock said the company expects 2024 sales to be the "low point" for the company. Moderna expects to return to organic sales growth by 2025.
Moderna and its rivals and have all seen sales of their Covid-related products plummet as much of the world moves on from the pandemic and depends less on protective vaccines and treatments.
Moderna is hoping to shift investor focus away from Covid toward a pipeline of new vaccines. The company is developing shots targeting other respiratory diseases and has said it hopes to offer targeting cancer, heart disease and other conditions by 2030.
"We're talking up to 15 products in the next five years and quite a number of them in '24 and '25," Bancel told CNBC. "That's how we drive growth again, the products."
The lineup includes Moderna's against respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. The company in July for full approval of the shot for adults ages 60 and older and expects a decision from regulators in 2024.
Moderna is also hoping to win approval for its targeting Covid and the flu in 2025. That shot recently showed positive initial results in a mid-stage clinical trial and is expected to deliver greater convenience to patients and health care providers.
The pipeline also includes Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine, a highly anticipated shot being developed with to target different tumor types, along with a flu vaccine.
