Scholars believe that Vietnam may worry about anger in China and Russia, or hesitant to stand on the side of the United States and hesitate.The U.S. -Vietnam relations upgrade is mainly for symbolic meaning. The actual benefits brought by the upgrade of relations may not be obvious. Therefore, it is expected that the results of Brinken Vietnam are not great.

The United States has recently actively conducted high -level contact with Vietnam, including Secretary of State Brills to visit Vietnam this weekend, hoping to promote the upgrading of comprehensive partnership between the two countries into strategic partnerships.Scholars of interviewees believe that the more difficult to visit by Brinken this time. Whether the two countries will arrange a higher -level mutual visit may be whether bilateral relations will be upgraded.

Bollingken flew to Hanoi, Vietnam on Friday (April 14th), and officially launched a visit on Saturday. It will meet with Vietnamese leaders and the land -to -earth embassy in the United States to build a new embassy in Hanoi.This is the first time he has visited Vietnam since he became the Secretary of State.

The United States and Vietnam celebrate the 10th anniversary of establishing a comprehensive partnership this year. The US President Biden and the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam talked on the phone on March 29 to agree to the relationship between "promotion, development and deepening".US Senator Jeff Merkley led the Congress to visit Vietnam last week that Vietnam is one of the most important partners in the United States in the region.

Ruan Kejiang, a visiting researcher at the Easov Isaev Isa East South Asian Research Institute in Singapore, said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that Vietnam and the United States have good partnerships that are good for both parties.Achievement.

He said that for the United States, Vietnam is one of the most important countries in the Indo -Pacific strategy.For Vietnam, the deterrence of the United States can help it balance China.The United States is also the largest export market in Vietnam and plays an important role in Vietnam's economic growth.

However, whether the bilateral relations between the two countries have been upgraded and faced the influence of different domestic and external factors.

Ruan Kejiang said: "The internal ideological differences within the Communist Party of Vietnam may have a role in affecting, especially in recent years, the conservative forces have increased."

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War Institute of Washington, said: "The Vietnamese military, the Ministry of Public Security, the Central Committee and the Politburo have many hardliners.Inciting the "Color Revolution '." This may become an obstacle to the upgrade of bilateral relations between the two countries.

He also believes that to upgrade the US -Vietnam relations, you should first focus on solving the problems left by history, including Dioxin, a chemical poison (Bien Hoa Airbase).

He said, "If you don't solve the problems in the past, you can't look forward."

During the Vietnamese war, the U.S. military had stored orange agents containing two evils at the side and Air Force base.Evil British poisoned the human body, and many abnormal babies were born after the war.In 2019, the United States began to assist Vietnam to launch a cleanup operation. In March this year, it added $ 73 million (about 97 million yuan) to clean up.

Vietnam is worried about anger China and Russia

Scholars believe that Vietnam's concerns about China and Russia may be the key factor affecting the upgrading of bilateral relations in the United States and Vietnam.

Ruan Kejiang said that Vietnam may be worried that he would anger China, or he was hesitant to stand on the side of the United States.

He said: "China may not show strong opposition to the Bilateral relations of the United States and Vietnam, provided that it is not threatened by China ... But if it involves the United States and deepen military cooperation, especially in maritime security, Beijing may be in Beijing.Will be more worried. "

Vietnam adopts the policy of not choosing border stations between China and the United States.Although Vietnam and China have disputes in the South China Maritime territory, Hanoi sought a good relationship with Beijing.

On the other hand, Russia is an important partner in Vietnam and the largest weapon supplier in Vietnam.Vietnam may not want to be considered to be on the same front as the United States to fight against Russia.

Abuza believes that the U.S. -Vietnam relations upgrade is mainly for symbolic significance. The actual benefits brought by the relationship upgrade may not obvious, so it is expected that the results of the trip to Vietnam are not great.

He analyzed that the United States is one of Vietnam's most important economic partners. The bilateral trade volume exceeds $ 138 billion last year. A large number of overseas investment in the United States has poured into Vietnam."Everything or risk angered China" can get these benefits.Therefore, Vietnam does not have enough motivation to agree to upgrade Bilateral relations in the United States and Vietnam.Vietnam may wait for "something you really want", such as a free trade agreement to use this card for the United States.

Ruan Kejiang said that how successful this visit may depend on whether Ruan Fuzhong and Biden will visit each other, because this will show that the two countries intend to continue to strengthen bilateral relations.

On the other hand, on the eve of Brinkee's visit to Vietnam, the United States called on Thursday (13th) to release Vietnam to release Ruan Linsheng, a 47 -year -old Vietnamese blog that was sentenced to six years in prison for participating in anti -government activities.

A spokesman for the US State Department said: "Before the Secretary of State visited Hanoi, the information we sent was clear, that is, Vietnam was an important partner in the Indo -Pacific region, but only the Vietnamese government took coordinated measures to fulfill its international law obligations.And promise, and improve human rights records, can bilateral partnerships exert all potential. "

According to data from the Human Rights Observation Organization, at least 163 political activists have been sentenced to prison since 2018.