The analysis of scholars interviewed that the balloon incident showed that the deterioration of China and the United States has been fragile enough to bear an ordinary blow; the incident has exacerbated the pressure of public opinion faced by the Biden government, and it will be more difficult for the United States to make concessions to China.
U.S. Secretary of State Brosky, originally scheduled to start a two -day visit to China on Sunday (February 5), and is expected to meet with Chinese officials to become the first US Secretary of State in the past six years.The outside world originally expected that Brinken's trip will promote the restoration of bilateral high -level contact between the two countries in order to set up a "protective bar" for Sino -US relations.
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, previously believed that China and the United States continued to confront issues in Taiwan, semiconductor high -tech and other issues. In this context, Brinken's visit to China will be difficult to bring significant and significant relationships to the relationship between the two countries.Long -term improvement.
Shi Yin Hong said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post on Saturday (February 4) that it was ironic that even the pessimistic forecast at that time was now a bit optimistic.The increasingly worse relationship between China and the United States has been fragile enough to bear a normal blow. Sino -US relations must achieve "significant and long -term improvements", which seems to almost rely on miracles.
The United States will hold the presidential election in 2024. The party has now actively prepared for the election. As a result, the domestic public opinion environment has become more and more sensitive.
According to Bloomberg, US officials have detected unknown objects entering the United States on January 28, but they have dealt with incidents in low -key days.Wu Xinbo, Executive Deputy Dean of the International Institute of International Issues of Fudan University and director of the American Research Center, analyzed that this incident was believed to be an accident. The balloon did not have much military effect, otherwise the United States would not take action for several days.
Wu Xinbo said that Brinken had been under great pressure in the United States before his visit to China, and many people questioned his need to visit China; after the balloon incident, he had to make a posture in the trend and had a gesture of the domestic conservative faction.Exposition.
Luo Minghui, assistant professor of public policy and global affairs curriculum of Nanyang University of Science and Technology, studied and judged that Brinken's cancellation of the trip to China is not a small topic. I believe that no country will allow other countries to fly into their leadership without permission.Essence
Luo Minghui believes that this incident may be a problem with the coordination of relevant units in China, not that China deliberately scares the United States, because China has continued to release a signal looking forward to the visit to China for several months.No good.
He pointed out that Chinese officials have acknowledged that the balloon belongs to China and expressed regret, which helps to solve this episode.However, many Republicans seize the opportunity to criticize Bayon too weak in China. In such an public opinion environment, it will be more difficult to concessions to China, which will have a certain impact on the overall Sino -US relations.
Wu Xinbo and Luo Minghui believe that the United States will not completely cancel the trip to China to visit China. As for when the two sides can arrange Brinken to visit China, the two have different opinions.
Wu Xinbo believes that Brinken may be changed at the end of February; Luo Minghui expects that the Bayeng government may take at least a few months to re -arrange Brinken to visit China, but it is expected to become a trip this year.
