LNG and marine coal imports in China, Japan and South Korea are at the forefront of the world. Their heating demand peak periods are exactly overlap in winter in Europe.If they usher in a colder winter this year, they may trigger more intense energy battle.
(Beijing Bloomberg) Europe is trying to get rid of the dependence on Russian fuel while competing to buy natural gas and coal.However, whether Europe can maintain warmth this winter, it must largely depends on three Asian countries, namely China, Japan and South Korea.
The LPG natural gas and marine coal imports in the three countries are at the forefront of the world. Their heating demand peak period is exactly overlapping in winter in Europe.If they usher in a colder winter this year, they may trigger more intense energy battle.
Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the international fuel battle has been set off, pushing the price of coal and natural gas to a record high.The shortage of European energy is about to increase, because the EU will ban the import of Russian coal next week, and the Russian Natural Gas Industry Corporation (Gazprom PJSC) has cut down natural gas to Europe.Russia has always been the largest source of natural gas supply in Europe, with 40 % of Russia's supply.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance Analyst Luohagi pointed out: "If Russia's energy supply to Europe is maintained at a low level, once winter is colder than previous years, it will push high energy prices because it is difficult to find additional fuel spot."
European countries have begun to prepare for winter, including reducing the use of natural gas, increasing the import volume of liquefied natural gas to enrich inventory, and restarting coal -fired power plants.Asian countries also indirectly helped Europe: China increased coal and liquefied natural gas output to reduce imports from foreign countries; China, Japan and South Korea tended to renewable energy, Japan and South Korea's solar power generation was high in May, and China's hydropower in the first half of the year increased.
However, the purchase of coal and liquefied natural gas in Europe has pushed prices to Singapore high. Once Japan and South Korea began to increase natural gas storage to prepare for winter, the natural gas market will be more prosperous.Japan's coal stock is also very low. It is almost the end of the year that Japan and South Korea need to purchase more coal to generate electricity.
Analysis: Japan and South Korea will compete with most fuel spot with Europe
Bloomberg New Energy Financial Analyst Ashga said: "Coal cargo, especially high -energy coal used in Japan and South Korea, has high demand for high energy coal, and most of them have been ordered. Japan and South Korea will fight for most fuel stocks with Europe." China's energy supply is relatively abundant. The high domestic coal production high, coupled with the reduction of power demand, has reached the highest level of coal inventory in the past year.In addition, Russia has increased natural gas exported to eastern China through the new pipeline, so that China can still maintain sufficient natural gas inventory while reducing imported liquefied natural gas.
Zhou Xizhou, director of the Global Power and Renewable Energy Department of the research institution IHS Markit, pointed out: "If winter is very cold, Japan and South Korea may need more fuel stocks, and they will bid with European buyers. On the other hand, China may mayTurn to use more domestic coal. "
