International Special Special
From March to November this year, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party will hold intra -party elections every month, and candidates will participate in the mid -term elections on November 8. From the perspective of the Republican primaries so far, is it conducive to the former President Trump to continue to control the Republican Party?How does the Democratic Party prepare for the mid -term election?How will the two -party politics develop?
For more than a year, former US President Trump is still an indisputable leader of the Republican Party.He made many Republican party members dead to him; many followers and party leaders still believed that he "won the 2020 presidential election"; he also raised huge amounts of funds, most of which came from small donors.
However, the results of the preliminary election of the Republican Party for the midterm elections in the past three months show that although Trump has a great influence on the Republican Party, it has reached its peak and may even decline.
Hong You, a researcher at the Rajernan International Research Institute of Nanyang University of Science and Technology in Singapore, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "From some point of view, Trump's control of Republican Party has weakened."
Kim Can Rong, an expert in Renmin University of China, believes that Trump suffers frustrated at Georgian Republican primaries, but his influence on the Republican Party is still great.
In the primary election of Republicans in the past few weeks, many candidates supported by Trump have lost.Among them, the primary election of the Georgia Republican Party reflects Trump's influence changes to a certain extent.After the Presidential Election of Trump lost Georgia in the 2020 presidential election, he asked Republican Governor Brian Kemp and State Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to announce his victory, but the two did not followEssenceTrump later regarded them as a dead end, and vowed to pull them down.After the party's primary election began, Trump devoted his energy and funds to the opponents of Camp Nou and Rafenstbeg, but Kamp and Rafennsberg both won in the first election of May.
However, there are also two Georgian Republicans supported by Trump victory over the primaries and can run for the Senate and House of Representatives at the end of the year.In the preliminary election of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, MEHMET OZ, a well -known doctor supported by Trump and former TV show host, also won the candidate of the Senate seat.
The statistics of Elaine KamArck, a senior researcher at the Brucks Society of the American Think Tank, showed that so far, about two -thirds of the candidates supported by Trump have won the party's primary election; but she pointed out that speciallyThe candidates supported by Trump are either the opponent is weak or there is no opponent.
Hong Youren believes that it should be more concerned that the Republicans of the Institute are now more willing to criticize Trump in the primaries."The establishment of the system is worried that Trump's influence will cause the Republican Party to lose votes in the midterm elections, lose the fat that will be lost, or fails to allow the Republican Party to win the maximum results in the midterm election."
Jin Canrong also said in an interview that the Republican Party faced the problem of division of the Trump faction and the division of the system. The policy views of the two factions were very different.Essence
When the Georgian Republican Party was primary, Trump and his former deputy Pence set up platforms for different candidates, highlighting the tear of the two major factions in the party.
When Pence set up a platform for Camp, I satirized that Trump lost the burden of the presidential election in 2020.He said: "The election is about the future. Some people want to turn this election into the past elections. When you support the Governor of Camp tomorrow, you will send a clear information to the whole United States: Republican Party is the future political party."
Trump has three cracks in the party's control
Carmark, who specializes in the US election system, pointed out in an analysis article that Trump's control of the Republican Party has experienced three cracks: Trump's hardcore basic disk seems to be shrinking; in many preliminary elections of the Republican Party, special electionsTrump's platform blessing failed to bring a great positive effect to candidates; Republican leaders are stepping up challenges and even opposing Trump.
According to the public opinion survey of the US NBC TV station, "Do you support Trump more than supporting the Republican Party?" Before the 2020 election, 54 % of the respondents answered "yes"; by May 2022, 58 % were interviewed.The person answered "No".When the situation was turned around, the basic disk of Trump's hardcore began to shrink.Secondly, candidates supported by Trump may not be able to win easily or even lose in the party, which shows that Trump is not a king in the party.Third, before the Republican primary election began, only a small number of leaders in the party publicly opposed Trump clearly. Now more people have joined the ranks, such as former President Bush, former vice president Cheign, and Pence.
Davis, who is engaged in political data in Washington, published an article in the Guardian that in the Republican and democratic parties, party members clearly attach more importance to candidates who can govern and solve problems, rather than supporting the platform's platform support."Even if the Democratic Chief candidate has the support of the US President Biden or Perlis, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, it will obtain opposition votes from party members in the past two years to obstruct the government agenda; Republicans who can hand over the results will receive support votes from party members., Even if they are angry with Trump. "
Election is about the future.Some people want to turn this election into the past elections.When you support the Governor of Camp tomorrow, you will send a clear message to the United States: Republican Party is the future party.
—— when Pence set the platform to Camp, I satirized that Trump could not lose the burden of the presidential election in 2020.
Bynden is improperly "created by the king" to curb the differences within the party
Trump actively participated in the mid -term elections to platform for multiple Republican primaries, provided campaign funds, recording advertisements, etc.Biden intends to avoid playing the role of the "King of Creation" in the Democratic Primary Election, which is in sharp contrast to Trump's approach.
Bloomberg reported that Biden only publicly supported two Democrats: Kurt Schrader, the current Oregon, the current Oregon, and SHONTEL BROWN, the current Ohio.
An anonymous Biden policy adviser said that Biden was willing to endorse Schraid and Brown because they supported Biden's legislative agenda and were the "most loyal to Bynden" Democratic candidates.
According to statistics, Trump has now disclosed the platform for more than 170 Republican candidates, and there are no shortage of supporters to support the flags.Trump spokesman Budvich said Trump "has the most powerful support in politics" and is committed to "supporting candidates he supports nationwide."
A poll results released by the Morning Consultation Company in the United StatesIt shows that nearly four -fifths of the Republican voters in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania are optimistic about Trump.The survey also found that Trump's support in these four states has rarely changed since his departure.
Unlike the support rate of Trump's good poll all the way, under the stack of inflation, the spread of crown disease, and the multiple crises of the shooting incident, the polls fell to 39 %.level.At the same time, less than three -quarters of the Democrats recognized his work performance, and this ratio was never less than 82 % in the survey last year.
Democratic Party and Biden complained each other
Facing the support rate of Biden's "falling", the gap between the White House and the Democratic Party has expanded.The internal factions of the Democratic Party began to blame each other, and even asked the White House to be responsible for the "dim prospective prospect"; Biden complained privately that the Democratic party was "inaction" and did not give himself strong support.
Differential differences within the party, Biden intends to downplay the role of the "king of the king" in the midterm election.The analysis believes that Biden's move is mainly to curb the differences between the party's factions. If the strong platform is the preliminary candidate of different factions, it may trigger a new round of conflicts.
The co -founder of the "Third Way" co -founder of the Democratic Think Tanks in the middle school said that Biden, as the Democrats of the middle school, naturally tend to gentle candidates, but his allies within the party are very extensive,Because of meeting the requirements of each faction, the political operation space is very small, and you must act with caution when standing for the people in the party.
The mid -term election is enough to change
Layout U.S. Political Power
The mid -term election of the United States refers to the election in the middle of the US President's term. It is scheduled to be held in November the second year of the president's term.Officials, so the midterm election is enough to affect the territory of US political power.
After the US election in 2020, the Democratic Party won the control of the White House and the Congress.Since taking office, the Biden government has faced many challenges, including the recovery after the crown disease epidemic, the rise in oil prices caused by the Russian -Ukraine conflict, and inflation, and the problem of food security such as insufficient supply of milk powder, which has greatly declined the support rate of Biden.
Generally believes that the Republican Party is likely to win the control of the House of Representatives in this year's midterm elections, and even the Senate's control.
The Republicans are not mentioned
A study of the Brookings Society of the US Think Tank found that nearly three -quarters of the Republican primaries candidate kept a distance from Trump to worship Bayeon's fraud to win the 2020 presidential election. Nearly 90 % of them pairsOn January 6, 2021, the U.S. Capitol Mountains rioted and did not talk.
As of May 25, 493 candidates participated in the Primary Election Plan (Primaries Project) led by Kamak, a senior researcher at the Brookings Society, carefully examined their personal campaign websites and social media, Media interviews and other channels, the views on the three important events: the impartial issues of the United States, the results of the presidential election in 2020, and the riots of Congress on January 6, 2021.
Statistics found that 54%of Republican primaries candidates did not appoint a fair issue at all, 74%did not mention the results of the presidential election in 2020, and as many as 87%did not mention Capitol's riot at all.
It is difficult to reproduce the cooperation between Trump's rooting two parties
Trump may not be a king in the Republican Party, but his Trumpism has undoubtedly become a political style chased by Republicans.In the current social environment, Trumpism has become the mainstream of the party, prompting the Republican Party to continue to be conservative, and then stimulate the leftist of the Democratic Party to continue to grow. It is more difficult for the people to expect the two -party cooperation (BIPARTISANSHIP) to reproduce.
No matter whether there is no Trump Republican Party will continue to be right
Hong You, a researcher at Nanyang University of Science and Technology, Hongyou, said in an interview that Trump's future in the Republican Party and the relationship with the Republican Party depends on how Trump will go next."If Trump decides to participate in the 2024 presidential election, it will once again stimulate Trump's support for support; if not running, the Republican Party will have a leader who wants to inherit Trumpist."
Reuters earlier analyzed reports that those candidates for party primary candidates who could not get Trump's platform supported by Trump have changed the basic market for Trump.
In a primary election of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, Bunit, which joined the battle in the last minute, chose the slogan "Make American Great Again (MAGA).She believes that "making the United States great again" does not belong to Trump, but belongs to the American people.Although Bunit did not receive Trump's support, she chose to move closer to Trump.She did not win the primary election in the end.
Republican strategist Konte said: "In 2016, Trump is the only candidate to run with this populist. Now, populism has become the claim of most Republican primaries candidates."
In fact, "making the United States great again" was not created by Trump, but in the 1970s that the United States began to prevail during various crises. Republican Reagan's Reagan won the presidential election with this slogan in 1980.
Hong Youren pointed out that the Republican right -tied movement has begun before Trump. It is the seeds of Reagan in the 1980s. Therefore, the Republican Party will continue to lean right.
According to Agence France -Presse, an analysis of the US Think Tank Piyou Research Center found that the differences between Democrats and Republicans today are greater than at any time in the past 50 years.
Schultz, a political scholar at Hamlin University of Minnesota, believes that economic structure changes, races, social problems and scientific and technological development are promoting diversification. Trump "is just the incarnation of these trends."
Progressive political adviser Kon -Sanchez is blamed on political donations."Because our elections have become extremely expensive, candidates are seeking fast fundraising instead of raising funds from ordinary Americans. At this time, the situation is beginning to become dangerous."
The two parties are just on the same time on the issue of China and Russia
Domestic politics in the United States, the Republican and Democratic Party cannot reach consensus on various issues, only rare coordination in foreign policy.
Jin Canrong, an expert in the United States of Renmin University of China, said in an interview that there are huge differences in the two parties in policies such as gun control, infrastructure bills, climate and epidemic prevention, and only consistent in the policy of China."Both parties quarreled, and even the roads were quarreled; it was highly consistent with China, and it was not a problem to scold China."
Hong You, a researcher at the Rajiery South International Research Institute, said that the only topic of the two parties that can reach a consensus is that they must be tougher than China and Russia.Both parties believe that China is the main challenge to the dominance of the United States, which means that compromise or accommodation in China may be regarded as a political responsibility that cannot be affordable."A country that treats China as the main strategic competitor, a serious division close to threats or enemies, is not conducive to social peace, and it is not conducive to domestic and global stability."
Jin Canrong said that the two parties in the United States will continue to turn the focus of domestic contradictions to international."I personally hope that the Democratic Party can maintain the majority in this mid -term election, because compared with the extreme right wing, the Bayeng government will maintain a balance in Sino -US relations. But it is really hard to say now because Trump is a onenumber."
