"I believe Americans will no longer make the same mistake."
A few weeks ago, I talked to my friends about the US election. Friends "bet" Democratic candidate Harris wins because American voters have accompanied "Political Madman" Trump to go crazy for four years. This timeIt should not repeat the same mistakes.
However, as the election enters the final sprint, the gap between the two candidates is getting smaller and smaller.With the political baggage left by the current president Biden, Harris is on the obvious defensive on issues such as inflation and illegal immigration by the people in the United States.On the contrary, Trump, who is good -looking and interested in inciting, not only has the strong advantage in the white artificial salary class, but also won the support of many black men.
Harris does not necessarily lose, but the possibility of American voters accompanied Trump again is also increasing. It is not ruled out that the Republican candidate who has won the White House will eventually win this adaptation.Election campaign.
According to the polls released by the United States CNN (CNN) on October 25, the support rate of the two was 47%.The polls released by the New York Times and the Siena College also showed that Harris and Trump's support rates were comparable with 48%to 48%.
This is not good for Harris. You must know that in recent presidential elections, even if the Democratic Party loses the electoral ticket at least, at least it has an advantage in the general votes.Nowadays, I have tied with Trump on Pu votes, and Harris's winning noodles are not optimistic. Seven swing states in the two parties must compete for both parties , all kinds of peopleThe result of the transfer is almost a day, and no one can see the crystal ball.
Even the top election experts in the United States are arguing for the results of the election.A Lich Lichtman, who has been in the past 10 U.S. presidential elections, has always been optimistic that Harris will laugh at the end; and the founder of the poll Fivethirtyeight (Fivethirtyeight, Silver (Nate Silver recently wrote that the campaign was almost a tie, but intuitively told him that Trump might win.
No matter who won in the end, the extreme tear, populism, internal vision, and anti -globalization of this election make some elites in the United States feel pessimistic about the prospects of the selection.Dalio, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund bridge water, recently expressed concerns about the results of the US elections and whether the United States can achieve orderly transfer of power.American Consumer News and Business Channels have recently reported that The rich in the United States seeks to apply for a second book.The demand for passports or long -term abroad is innovative .
This election is not only about the fate of the United States, but also may reshape the global political and economic pattern.The election results are also popular at the other end of the Pacific Ocean. It is said that some Chinese elites gathered in WeChat groups, and the people of Harris and Trump have recently quarreled.Although Beijing has never made a preference for the candidate of the President of the United States, from the interpretation of many Chinese scholars, between Harris and Trump, Beijing clearly predicts the predictable Democratic Party to continue governing.
Harris may not have a full set of inheritance of Biden's policies to China.Sexual contradictions and hostility will not change , but now that Sino -US relations are stable, the two parties after the balloon incident are more clear about each other's bottom lines and red lines.Therefore, compared to Trump, which is more emotional and unpredictable, continuity is more beneficial to stable bilateral relations.
The question is the matched confrontation. The final result is in the hands of American voters. Even if there are more preferences in the outside world, it is difficult to control the results. What can be done is to make a plan for all possibilities.Perhaps because of this, a highly anticipated meeting in China was arranged to be held in the US election for the week.
Since late September, China officially sacrifice a series of measures to save the economy, but the most weighty fiscal stimulus policy, including the scale of specific debt issuance, has not settled.The additional debt issuance must be approved by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. The meeting of the Standing Committee of the Standing Committee of the People's Congress held at the end of October was finally held from November 4th to 8th.Then come to shoot the incremental policy.According to earlier reports of Reuters, China is considering approving the increasing issuance of more than 100,000 in the next few years.RMB 100 million ($ 14 trillion) bonds , if Trump won the election, China is expected to launch stronger fiscal stimulus facilities.
The results of the US elections will affect the trend of US stocks, US debt, and US dollars, change the risk preferences of overseas investors, and affect international capital trends. These will limit the effectiveness of China's market rescue tools.During the election, Trump explicitly showed a trade policy for China, threatening to impose 60 % tariffs on all products imported from China.The campaign commitment may not be fulfilled, but with the style of Trump's "killing the enemy for one thousand self -harm 800", Beijing has to prepare for the external impact of mountain rain.
If the trade war is restarted, there will be a financial war in the back. These are all unknown.Under the principle of the "United States" pursued by Trump, how much impact will the global multilateral cooperation system and the existing international order be faced?The international consulting agency Eurasian Group predicted that the US election was the top political risk in 2024.Will this be a storm that swept the world?Everyone is holding a breath and waiting for the arrival of November 5.
