The Burmese Civil War was the beginning of the collapse of the Burmese government?

(Yangon News) The minority local armed organizations (referred to as civilians) and anti -political change forces in all parts of Myanmar and anti -political change forces have jointly launched a major offensive against the Burmese military in recent weeks. Some Myanmar observers believe that this is not only the Burmese military militaryThe most severe challenges faced since the coup in 2021 are more likely to indicate the starting point of the collapse of the Myanmar military government.

The "Three Brothers Alliance Organizations", which was formed by the Liberal Ethnic National Liberation Army, Ruokai Army, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance, was launched on October 27.Northeast, north, and west to the central region have civil and anti -government forces to fight the Burmese army.

Observer pointed out that the Burmese Army's soldiers in many strongholds fell without fighting, allowing civilians to easily win strategic border towns, key military positions and important trade lines.It exposed the military power of the military government.

Myanmar independent analyst Anno, an interview with the United States CNN (CNN), said that this is the "moment of life and death of the Myanmar military", and said that the "focus of the current focus is to seize the main towns and defeat the army fundamentallygovernment".

However, the Burmese army has ruled Myanmar for 50 years through brutal and terrorist means. It is not easy to disintegrate such a deep -rooted institution, and the military refuses to make concessions. It may also drag Myanmar into the abyss of conflict.

Although this wave of conflicts has not yet affected major cities such as Yangon, Mandler, or Nebid, it marks a turning point of the resistance movement.According to the UN Humanitarian Affairs Office, the 1027 operation is the largest and most widespread conflict since the coup.

Members and analysts interviewed in the interview pointed out that the Burmese army should deal with multiple fronts at the same time, dilute military strength, and be in a defensive in many areas, or can only dispatch fighter aircraft and rockets to attack civilians.

Ye Miahai, a visiting scholar at the Institute of Peace of the United States and a global researcher at the Wilson Research Center, said: "To predict the final result of this war is a bit difficult, because in my opinion, this resistance movement is still in the initial stage.Yes, operation of 1027 has changed its military balance, which is conducive to resisting movement. "

According to Ye Miaohai's analysis, the number of soldiers of the Myanmar army is not as much as outsiders imagined.According to his estimates, the Burmese army currently has 150,000 troops, of which 70,000 are soldiers.This force is only enough to "barely maintain the military's combat effectiveness, and it is not enough to support a government."

This civil war is likely to destroy the relationship between Myanmar and neighbors in the region."All neighboring countries have invested huge sums of money to maintain a positive relationship with the Myanmar military government. However, once they begin to lose their relationship with the Myanmar military government, their geopolitical calculations will change. I think China is like this, India and ThailandThat's the same. "

Some analysts believe that the Myanmar anti -military government factions are closer to the goal of defeating the military government than ever, but they are cautious and optimistic.

Ponerga, commander of the Burmese National Revolutionary Army fighting with the military in central Myanmar, said: "To establish a federal democratic country with equal rights, we must first become stronger through mutual coordination. With such unity,I believe we can quickly defeat the army of bullying. When everything is over, this unity will become the foundation for rebuilding our country. "