Gan Side, an expert in China Strategy and International Research Center, believes that China's foreign policy has shifted from tightness to "we have to".In the model, the two sides were trapped in a vicious circle.

China's foreign policy has shifted from "moving the light" to "having to", and the US policy for the United States has also fallen into a "having to" model.In a vicious circle, to break through this dilemma, the United States should not just think about how to reduce dependence on China, but to think about how to become indispensable for China.

Gan Side's offline lecture on Wednesday (October 5th) in Beijing, in Beijing, pointed out that Sino -US relations have fallen to the lowest point in 50 years.Different differences, but the lack of face -to -face communication between the two sides has exacerbated the tension between the two countries. Both Beijing and Washington have now become a closed "Echo Chamber", which has a tough view of each other.

Gan Side said in analysis of Sino -US relations that both China and the United States have established a discussion that emphasized that the other party is completely wrong, and it may be responsible for the rapid turn of Sino -US relations.The United States believes that Sino -US relations are out of formal because China deviates from the track of reform and opening up. Although China does not want to challenge the leadership of the United States, it is trying to create an international order with different norms. The United States believes that there must be some response.

Different views of interest conflicts, divergence, difficult to escape the malignant cycle relationship

China's interpretation of Sino -US relations is that the relationship between the two countries is basically good until January 2017, but the US strategy has shifted from contact to unilateral pressure.

"China will say that we are still China, we are not different from before, but you have changed, so we have to respond."

Gan Side believes that China's foreign policy has shifted from tightness to "we have to". The United States' policies for China have also fallen into a "having to" model, and the two sides are trapped in a vicious circle.

Based on the conflict between the interests of the two countries and the views on each other, it is difficult for the two sides to escape this vicious circle.

According to Gan Side's observation, China is concerned that under the separation of the three powers in the United States, even if China and the United States find the foundation of common cooperation or the method of controlling challenges, can the US administrative unit allow Congress to implement these consensus?

China is also worried that U.S. leaders will replace regularly, and whether the next government will abide by the commitment between China and the United States.

He also pointed out that the United States also questioned the ability of China to implement their promises. China has various government departments, local governments and interest organizations. Even if the leaders of Zhongnanhai agreed to make certain commitments, the United States is not sure whether Chinese leaders can implement these commitments to implement these commitmentsEssence

Gan Side said that there are many problems in China and the United States to solve it, so that each other can make each other feel comfortable enough to break the vicious circle of Sino -US relations."Although this is difficult, there are still potential solutions."

Gan Side pointed out that the core issue of Sino -US relations is what the advantages and disadvantages of the connection between China and the world to the United States. Most of the US views only focus on the United States' dependence on China., Reduce dependence on China, thereby reducing the risks faced by the United States.

But Gande believes that how to build interdependence between China and the United States is the key. "Can the United States consider the connection between China and the United States to rely on the United States to a certain extent? This may bring some some of them bring some some of them bring some some extent?Benefits are not only business benefits, but also national security benefits. "

He used the Russian and Ukraine War as an example. Russia's dependence on the world is very direct, mainly energy.If Russia and the world have a more complicated connection, the price it pays will be much higher than the economic impact faced.

If the United States and Europe tries to make the same sanctions against China as Russia, the impact and scale will be huge. "This is an example of living in China and the world that depends on each other."

Gan Side said that if China and the United States try to control the relationship between the two countries in a way that conform to each other, the two sides may not be "race to the bottom", "we may find other ways, which is difficult but at least worthy of worthy of at least it is worth itthink".

As for whether Sino -US relations will change after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Gan Side believes that there are currently two possibilities; one is that the CCP maintains its existing route, and the United States will respond in the same way as the current way.

Another possibility is that the CCP's leadership realizes that the existing route has created a series of problems, including the rebound and dissatisfaction caused by the clearing policy, the relationship between China and many countries is at the lowest point, and the space for development in China has continued to shrinkThe CCP's senior management may start to respond to these problems after the 20th National Congress, such as gradually adjusting the zero policy and finding the relationship between stable methods with the United States and other countries.

Gan Side said: "It may be like a player player. They cannot disclose any signals before the 20th National Congress ... What will they do after leaking ... At present, we don't know much. None of these two claims can be refuted. We cannot refute. We cannot refute. We cannot refute.You can only wait. "