Under the external situation of the Russian and Ukraine War and the continuous confrontation of the United States and China, the Taiwan China Institute of Economics and Research Institute forecasts that Taiwan's economy will increase by 2.01%in 2023, which is significantly under the prediction value.Repair 0.71 percentage points.
According to the Taiwan United Daily report, the Taiwan Central Economics Institute said that the external situation is the main reasons for this estimation.Under the circumstances of not meeting the standards and the financial system, the global economic growth rate in 2023 will be less than 2022, and the growth of international trade has become increasingly declining.In contrast, due to the lifting and opening up during the post -epidemic period, the demand for amplification brings business opportunities, resulting in the growth model of the growth model.
The Taiwan Central Economics Institute estimates that Taiwan's demand has contributed 2.23 percentage points this year, of which private consumption and fixed capital formation contribute 2.08 and 0.08 percentage points respectively.Foreign net demand has slowed down due to international commodity trade, and contributed about 0.22 percentage points.
Ye Junxian, the president of the Taiwan Central Economics Academy, said that due to the slowdown of global trade momentum and the impact of interest rate hikes, Taiwan's investment and output input performance this year are worse than last year. This year's investment increased by 0.38%(last year 6.24%), Output 0.06%(2.42%last year), and input 0.38%(4.5%last year).
He analyzed that Taiwan's consumption can increase by about 4.64%this year, which is better than 3.59%last year. The main reason is that epidemic prevention measures and prices are eased from last year.Pay attention to domestic supply and demand, such as rent and 17 civilian biological supplies.
The estimates of the Taiwan Central Economics Academy have also been repaired this year's consumer price index (CPI) annual increase of 2.18%, which is lower than last year, which is lower than last year. It is the effect of slowing global economic downturn and decreased demand.According to the Chinese Economics Institute, the Ministry of Commerce of Mainland China recently announced that it will investigate the trade barriers of Taiwan, which will heat up the cross -strait trade disputes, which will have an important impact on Taiwan's economic growth and export performance.
