Wen Weizhong Taipei Special officer
Scholars pointed out that in the context of the Sino -US confrontation and the situation of the Taiwan Strait, the "political emotion" of Taiwanese society will be the presidential election results after more than eight months.If the emotional dominance of the war is worried, it will be beneficial to the Kuomintang in the wild; if the anger and mood of pressure on the military of the mainland will be beneficial to the DPP of the Governor.
The International Research Center of Taiwan Politburo held a symposium on Tuesday (April 18) to invite scholars to analyze Cai Yingwen's transit the United States and former President Ma Ying -jeou's visit to the mainland for the "Shuangying Visit" mid- and long -term follow -up effect.
Professor Liu Fuguo, director of the Taiwan Security Research Center, analyzed that Ma Ying -jeou visited Lu to inject a dose of living water into the tight relationship between the two sides of the strait to unblock the folk feelings on both sides of the strait.
Comprehensive scholars' assessment, although Tsai Ing -wen has enhanced the relationship between the United States to Taiwan and the United States to the new peak, Beijing also uses the military exercise of Taiwan to change the current situation of the Taiwan Strait.Taiwan's unfavorable comprehensive structural changes.
The election results will allow Taiwan's politics to develop decisive development
Professor Kou Jianwen, director of the National Congress of Political Science and Technology, evaluated that Beijing's strategy of promoting the priority to anti -independence has compressed the space for his Kuomintang who "anti -independence";The environment of strong confrontation between the United States is not optimistic, and the contradictions on both sides of the strait and the risk of the Taiwan Strait are still high.
Chen Dosheng said that the results of the Taiwan elections on January 13, 2024 more than eight months later will make Taiwan's politics decisive development.He believes that the key to whether the situation in the Taiwan Strait can turn around is the development of unified independence issues in Taiwan, and whether Beijing can not find a reason for starting.
Professor Chen Luhui, director of the Department of Political Department and a special researcher at the Election Research Center, pointed out that "political emotion" is likely to determine the result of the presidential election campaign.
He believes that when voting, if the fear of the war dominates the society, it is most favorable for the New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi who may represent the Kuomintang.If the anger of the mainland's military pressure dominates the society, it will be beneficial to the ruling DPP chairman Lai Qingde.
Chen Luhui explained that comprehensive polls, the people who advocated the maintenance of the status quo have supported Hou Youyi higher than Lai Qingde. Therefore, if Hou Youyi is nominated by nomination, the people can think about how the two sides of the strait can reach peace, and to worry and be vigilant about the war.It will occupy the upper hand in the election.
However, if the PLA continues to pressure Taiwan and operates the provocative action of the Taiwan Army, it will arouse the people's anger with their enemies, which is equivalent to "assisting the election" for the ruling party candidate Lai Qingde.
Chen Luhui said that Guo Taiming, the founder of Hon Hai Group nominated by the Kuomintang, shouted to "create a second economic miracle" for Taiwan, and Xu set up the vision of peace and prosperity.Nomination will be more beneficial to him.
