The former chairman of the US Association in Taiwan recognized the assessment of Su Qi, the former Secretary -General of the National Security Council of Taiwan. In case of the Taiwan Strait War, the United States had to spend a few weeks even for a few weeks.
The vision of Taiwan · The World Cultural Business Group was held on Monday (March 20).73 years old) Speaking and receiving questions on both sides of the strait and Sino -US relations.
Bu Ruizhe served as the chairman of the United States in the Taiwan Association from 1997 to 2002. After that, the East Asian Policy Research Center at the Brookings Research Institute of Washington Think Tank became the director of 16 years.Su Qi was the Secretary -General of the National Security Council in the Ma Ying -jeou government, and also served as the chairman of the MAC in the Li Denghui government.
Bu Ruizhe believes that the tendency of cross -strait relations within Taiwan can be attributed to two types: one is the preferred comfort and contact of the Kuomintang, and the other is the vigilance and deterrent of the DPP's preferred.The key is not to choose which route, but how to balance and integrate the deterrent and contact of mainland China.
He pointed out that the most worrying trend is that American politicians are too active in Taiwan. In the end, it may be able to anger Beijing to take revenge, but it is not good for Taiwan.
Beijing officials have repeatedly condemned Taiwan for "leaning on the beauty of the beauty" and the United States "controlled China".Zhao Chunshan, an expert on cross -strait research, analyzed this newspaper. This is a "fake issue" of Taiwan independence that dares not to do, and it is more likely to step on the "real problem" of the Beijing Red Line.
Bu Ruizhe: Cross -party anti -China consensus has been fermented
Bu Ruizhe pointed out that the consistent anti -Central consensus of the United States cross -party faction has been fermented, and nationalism in mainland China is also rising.He said that China and the United States are so powerful that they may not be avoided in the future; if China -US relations continue to deteriorate, Taiwan will not benefit.
Su Qi pointed out that after the "Nine -in -One" local election at the end of November last year, Beijing began to clearly separate the Taiwanese government and the people, and to the government for hard work and the people.Cross -strait reunification was completed by 2027.He believes that 2023 and 2024 are the most critical two years before.
Overall, he believes that although Beijing retains the space of peace in Taiwan, it is struggling with the DPP government as a whole; he is unwilling to drag on cross -strait issues, and it must be pushed to unification, not just anti -Taiwan independence.
As for the choice of cross -strait policies, he described as "political fighting, scriptures, and troops."Because the balance between Taiwan and coastal military power within five years is conducive to the Chinese Communist Party, the US financial resources and the military industry are not enough to support rapid transformation and allies of allies. At this stage, the United States can only be confused about the mainland, and hope that Taiwan will adhere to the beach.The better.
Su Qi questioned the view that the United States wanted to use the Taiwan Strait War to drag down the mainland. He believed that it was only the American eagle instead of the official mainstream view. It must be assumed that "Taiwan can be dragged."Once the United States takes the initiative to show off its military, the situation is probably not conducive to Taiwan and the United States.
He also evaluated that once the two sides of the Taiwan Strait started, the U.S. military power could not help Taiwan in time.Because East Asia is far away, the US military base is insufficient, and the long -range strike force is not enough, the CCP will quickly cause "the established facts" to Taiwan. It is difficult for the United States to turn the situation unless it is risk of nuclear war.
The former chief of staff of Taiwan, general chief of Taiwan, asked General Li Ximing. Once the Taiwan Strait has a conflict, will the United States be aid and have been preparing a plan?
Bu Ruizhe replied that the US President decided whether to send troops to aid, and must consult Congress and relevant officials to understand whether the war was launched by Beijing, which involved the overall deployment of the US military in the Indo -Pacific battlefield.
He agreed that Su Qi would spend at least a few weeks if Su Qi mentioned that the United States would support Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait War.But the most important thing is to make Beijing leaders think twice and do not easily attack Taiwan.
Bu Ruizhe believes that one of the keys to unlocking the ride on both sides of the strait is to seek the "one country, two systems", the mainstream public opinion of Taiwan is acceptable to accept cross -strait political arrangements across the party.
